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EA-105 — Range Midpoint Backtest

1. Baseline Identification

  • EA: EA-105_Range_Midpoint
  • Baseline ID: EA105-M1-BASELINE-001
  • Symbol: XAUUSD.PRO
  • Timeframe: M1
  • Test Period: 2026-01-02 to 2026-04-01
  • Initial Deposit: $1,000
  • Leverage: 1:500
  • History Quality: 100% real ticks
  • Bars: 86,539
  • Ticks: 40,346,891

2. Baseline Parameters

Parameter Value
Lot Size 0.01
Stop Loss 300 points
Take Profit 600 points
Break-even Trigger 150 points
Break-even Offset 0 points
Trailing Start 200 points
Trailing Distance 200 points
Maximum Spread 30 points
Range Bars 20
Rejection Wick Ratio 0.5

3. Performance Results

Metric Result
Initial Deposit $1,000.00
Net Profit -$400.13
Gross Profit $2,781.94
Gross Loss -$3,182.07
Profit Factor 0.87
Expected Payoff -$0.15
Recovery Factor -0.89
Sharpe Ratio -5.00
Max Balance Drawdown $446.39 (44.42%)
Max Equity Drawdown $448.61 (44.56%)
Total Trades 2,589
Total Deals 5,178
Winning Trades 1,216 (46.97%)
Losing Trades 1,373 (53.03%)
Average Profit Trade $2.29
Average Loss Trade -$2.32
Largest Profit Trade $7.54
Largest Loss Trade -$6.94
Average Holding Time 00:03:02

4. Directional Results

Direction Trades Win Rate
SELL 1,396 48.42%
BUY 1,193 45.26%

Both directions had win rates below 50%. SELL performed better than BUY in this baseline, but this observation alone does not establish a reliable directional edge.

5. Assessment

Baseline Classification: FAIL

Reasons:

  • Net profit is negative.
  • Profit Factor is below 1.0.
  • Expected Payoff is negative.
  • Sharpe Ratio is negative.
  • Maximum equity drawdown is 44.56%.
  • Both BUY and SELL have win rates below 50%.

The test generated 2,589 trades, providing a substantial initial sample for investigation. However, the results do not demonstrate a profitable baseline.

6. Research Decision

Stage Status
Strategy Code COMPLETE
Baseline Backtest COMPLETE
Baseline Assessment FAIL
Controlled Research REQUIRED
Broad Optimization BLOCKED
Out-of-Sample Validation NOT STARTED
Walk-Forward Validation NOT STARTED
Forward Test NOT STARTED
Live Trading NOT APPROVED

7. Conclusion

Do not treat this backtest as evidence of a production-ready EA. Preserve the baseline report and investigate the range definition, rejection criteria, directional performance and exit management through controlled experiments before considering further validation.