EA-105 — Range Midpoint Backtest
1. Baseline Identification
- EA:
EA-105_Range_Midpoint - Baseline ID:
EA105-M1-BASELINE-001 - Symbol: XAUUSD.PRO
- Timeframe: M1
- Test Period: 2026-01-02 to 2026-04-01
- Initial Deposit: $1,000
- Leverage: 1:500
- History Quality: 100% real ticks
- Bars: 86,539
- Ticks: 40,346,891
2. Baseline Parameters
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Lot Size | 0.01 |
| Stop Loss | 300 points |
| Take Profit | 600 points |
| Break-even Trigger | 150 points |
| Break-even Offset | 0 points |
| Trailing Start | 200 points |
| Trailing Distance | 200 points |
| Maximum Spread | 30 points |
| Range Bars | 20 |
| Rejection Wick Ratio | 0.5 |
3. Performance Results
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Initial Deposit | $1,000.00 |
| Net Profit | -$400.13 |
| Gross Profit | $2,781.94 |
| Gross Loss | -$3,182.07 |
| Profit Factor | 0.87 |
| Expected Payoff | -$0.15 |
| Recovery Factor | -0.89 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -5.00 |
| Max Balance Drawdown | $446.39 (44.42%) |
| Max Equity Drawdown | $448.61 (44.56%) |
| Total Trades | 2,589 |
| Total Deals | 5,178 |
| Winning Trades | 1,216 (46.97%) |
| Losing Trades | 1,373 (53.03%) |
| Average Profit Trade | $2.29 |
| Average Loss Trade | -$2.32 |
| Largest Profit Trade | $7.54 |
| Largest Loss Trade | -$6.94 |
| Average Holding Time | 00:03:02 |
4. Directional Results
| Direction | Trades | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
| SELL | 1,396 | 48.42% |
| BUY | 1,193 | 45.26% |
Both directions had win rates below 50%. SELL performed better than BUY in this baseline, but this observation alone does not establish a reliable directional edge.
5. Assessment
Baseline Classification: FAIL
Reasons:
- Net profit is negative.
- Profit Factor is below 1.0.
- Expected Payoff is negative.
- Sharpe Ratio is negative.
- Maximum equity drawdown is 44.56%.
- Both BUY and SELL have win rates below 50%.
The test generated 2,589 trades, providing a substantial initial sample for investigation. However, the results do not demonstrate a profitable baseline.
6. Research Decision
| Stage | Status |
|---|---|
| Strategy Code | COMPLETE |
| Baseline Backtest | COMPLETE |
| Baseline Assessment | FAIL |
| Controlled Research | REQUIRED |
| Broad Optimization | BLOCKED |
| Out-of-Sample Validation | NOT STARTED |
| Walk-Forward Validation | NOT STARTED |
| Forward Test | NOT STARTED |
| Live Trading | NOT APPROVED |
7. Conclusion
Do not treat this backtest as evidence of a production-ready EA. Preserve the baseline report and investigate the range definition, rejection criteria, directional performance and exit management through controlled experiments before considering further validation.