EA-062 — Body Breakout — Backtest
Overview
This directory contains the baseline MetaTrader 5 backtest evidence for:
EA-062_Body_Breakout
The purpose of this baseline experiment is to evaluate the initial Body Breakout hypothesis under a fixed and documented configuration before any strategy optimization is performed.
The core hypothesis is:
Can a price breakout accompanied by a strong candle body relative to the candle's total range produce positive short-term directional expectancy on XAUUSD?
This backtest is treated as the baseline reference experiment for all subsequent EA-062 research.
Experiment ID
EA062-M1-BASELINE-001
Test Environment
Expert Advisor : EA-062_Body_Breakout
Symbol : XAUUSD.PRO
Timeframe : M1
Test Start : 2026-01-02
Test End : 2026-03-31
History Quality: 100% real ticks
Bars : 85,161
Ticks : 39,639,179
Symbols : 1
Initial Deposit: $100.00
Leverage : 1:500
Currency : USD
Baseline Parameters
Lot Size : 0.01
Stop Loss : 300 points
Take Profit : 600 points
Magic Number : 123062
Slippage : 10 points
Maximum Spread : 30 points
Timeframe : M1
Breakout Lookback : 20
Breakout Buffer : 0 points
Minimum Body Ratio : 0.70
Break Even : ON
Break Even Trigger : 150 points
Break Even Offset : 0 points
Trailing Stop : ON
Trailing Start : 200 points
Trailing Distance : 100 points
Trailing Step : 10 points
The baseline strategy therefore requires a breakout from the previous 20-bar range together with a minimum candle Body Ratio of:
70%
No broad parameter optimization is represented by this experiment.
Baseline Results
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Initial Deposit | $100.00 |
| Total Net Profit | -$93.30 |
| Gross Profit | $598.54 |
| Gross Loss | -$691.84 |
| Profit Factor | 0.87 |
| Expected Payoff | -$0.16 |
| Recovery Factor | -0.83 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -5.00 |
| Total Trades | 577 |
| Total Deals | 1,154 |
| Winning Trades | 299 (51.82%) |
| Losing Trades | 278 (48.18%) |
| Maximum Balance Drawdown | $112.08 (94.36%) |
| Maximum Equity Drawdown | $113.09 (94.41%) |
| Largest Profit Trade | +$11.85 |
| Largest Loss Trade | -$5.34 |
| Average Profit Trade | +$2.00 |
| Average Loss Trade | -$2.49 |
| Maximum Consecutive Wins | 7 |
| Maximum Consecutive Losses | 10 |
| Average Consecutive Wins | 2 |
| Average Consecutive Losses | 2 |
Baseline Return
The account started with:
$100.00
and generated:
-$93.30
in net historical trading results.
Relative to the initial deposit:
Net Profit / Initial Deposit
= -93.30 / 100
= -93.30%
Therefore:
Baseline Return ≈ -93.30%
This represents severe capital deterioration under the tested configuration.
Profitability Assessment
The baseline produced:
Profit Factor : 0.87
Expected Payoff : -$0.16
Recovery Factor : -0.83
Sharpe Ratio : -5.00
Net Profit : -$93.30
A Profit Factor below:
1.00
means that gross historical profits were insufficient to compensate for gross historical losses.
The negative Expected Payoff indicates that the average historical outcome per trade was negative.
The negative Recovery Factor and Sharpe Ratio provide additional evidence that the baseline configuration did not produce acceptable historical risk-adjusted performance.
Therefore:
BASELINE PROFITABILITY = FAIL
Win Rate
The EA executed:
577 trades
consisting of:
Winning Trades : 299
Losing Trades : 278
Overall historical win rate:
51.82%
Loss rate:
48.18%
The strategy therefore won slightly more trades than it lost.
However, the positive win rate did not translate into positive expectancy.
Payoff Structure
Average profitable trade:
+$2.00
Average losing trade:
-$2.49
Therefore:
Average Winner < Average Loser
Approximate realized average winner/loss magnitude ratio:
2.00 / 2.49 ≈ 0.80
This is materially different from the nominal initial SL/TP relationship of:
SL 300
TP 600
Nominal Risk : Reward = 1 : 2
because Break Even, Trailing Stop and actual market execution affect realized trade outcomes.
The baseline therefore demonstrates an important issue:
Win Rate = 51.82%
+
Average Winner = $2.00
<
Average Loser = $2.49
↓
Negative Historical Expectancy
The candle-body breakout filter generated a win rate above 50%, but the realized payoff distribution was insufficient to produce profitability.
BUY vs SELL
Directional results:
Long Trades : 318
Long Won : 53.46%
Short Trades : 259
Short Won : 49.81%
BUY signals therefore achieved a higher historical win rate than SELL signals during this baseline period.
Difference:
53.46% - 49.81% = 3.65 percentage points
This suggests a possible directional asymmetry in the tested sample.
However:
DO NOT disable SELL based only on this baseline.
BUY-only and SELL-only behavior must be evaluated through separate controlled experiments before drawing a conclusion.
Drawdown
The most important risk result is the extremely high drawdown.
Maximum Balance Drawdown:
$112.08 (94.36%)
Maximum Equity Drawdown:
$113.09 (94.41%)
With an initial deposit of only:
$100
the baseline experienced near-total capital deterioration.
Therefore:
DRAWDOWN = UNACCEPTABLE
and the baseline configuration is unsuitable for live deployment.
Consecutive Results
Maximum consecutive winning trades:
7
Maximum consecutive losing trades:
10
Maximum consecutive loss:
-$27.56 across 10 trades
Average consecutive wins:
2
Average consecutive losses:
2
A 10-trade losing sequence is particularly significant for a system tested with a $100 initial account.
Future research must therefore evaluate not only profitability but also loss clustering and drawdown behavior.
Holding Time
Position holding statistics:
Minimum Holding Time : 00:00:04
Maximum Holding Time : 02:08:02
Average Holding Time : 00:04:23
The average trade remained open for approximately:
4 minutes 23 seconds
This confirms that the tested EA behaves as a short-duration trading system on M1.
Execution conditions, spread, breakout timing and trade-management behavior are therefore potentially important research variables.
MFE / MAE
The MT5 report produced:
Correlation (Profits, MFE) : 0.95
Correlation (Profits, MAE) : 0.73
Correlation (MFE, MAE) : 0.6073
The strong Profit/MFE correlation indicates that favorable excursion is closely associated with realized profitable outcomes in this sample.
This does not by itself establish a new trading rule.
The MFE/MAE results should instead be retained as evidence for later exit-management research.
Equity Curve Assessment
The balance curve is unstable across the baseline period.
The test initially experiences periods of growth and recovery, but these gains are not sustained.
The later portion of the experiment shows substantial deterioration, eventually reducing the account close to depletion.
This behavior is consistent with the reported:
Net Profit : -$93.30
Maximum Equity Drawdown : 94.41%
Profit Factor : 0.87
Therefore the strategy does not demonstrate a stable positive equity trajectory under the baseline configuration.
What This Baseline Establishes
This experiment establishes that:
Body Breakout
+
20-Bar Lookback
+
Minimum Body Ratio 0.70
+
M1
+
Current Exit Management
did not demonstrate acceptable historical profitability under the documented test conditions.
Specifically:
577 trades
51.82% win rate
Profit Factor 0.87
Expected Payoff -$0.16
Net Profit -$93.30
Maximum Equity Drawdown 94.41%
The baseline therefore fails both profitability and risk requirements.
What This Baseline Does NOT Establish
This result does not prove that:
Body Breakout has no trading edge.
It establishes only that:
EA062-M1-BASELINE-001
failed under the documented configuration and test period.
The experiment does not independently answer whether performance could materially differ under:
Different timeframes
Different Body Ratio thresholds
Different breakout lookbacks
Different trading sessions
Different market regimes
BUY-only or SELL-only execution
Different exit management
Longer historical periods
Out-of-sample data
These questions require separate controlled experiments.
Baseline Verdict
Experiment ID : EA062-M1-BASELINE-001
Technical Execution : PASS
Trade Sample Generated : PASS
History Quality : PASS
Profitability : FAIL
Risk / Drawdown : FAIL
Positive Expectancy : FAIL
Production Ready : NO
Final Baseline Classification
FAIL
Primary reasons:
Net Profit = -$93.30
Profit Factor = 0.87
Expected Payoff = -$0.16
Recovery Factor = -0.83
Sharpe Ratio = -5.00
Maximum Equity Drawdown = 94.41%
The baseline configuration must not be treated as validated for live trading.
Research Questions Created by the Baseline
The failed baseline creates the following controlled research questions.
EA062-RQ01 — Timeframe
Does Body Breakout behave differently on:
M1
M5
M15
EA062-RQ02 — Minimum Body Ratio
Does changing:
Minimum Body Ratio
improve breakout quality?
Candidate thresholds should be tested only through controlled experiments.
EA062-RQ03 — Breakout Lookback
Does changing:
Breakout Lookback = 20
improve signal quality and payoff distribution?
EA062-RQ04 — Trading Session
Does performance differ materially across major XAUUSD trading sessions?
EA062-RQ05 — Market Regime
Does the Body Breakout hypothesis behave differently during:
Trending markets
Ranging markets
High-volatility conditions
Low-volatility conditions
EA062-RQ06 — Direction
The baseline produced:
BUY : 318 trades / 53.46% won
SELL : 259 trades / 49.81% won
Does directional filtering improve expectancy?
This must be tested independently.
EA062-RQ07 — Exit Management
Does the current combination of:
SL / TP
Break Even
Trailing Stop
cause profitable price excursions to be converted into insufficient realized payoff?
This question is particularly relevant because:
Average Winner = $2.00
Average Loser = $2.49
despite the initial nominal:
1 : 2
SL/TP configuration.
Controlled Research Sequence
The recommended sequence is:
EA062-M1-BASELINE-001
↓
EA062-RQ01
Timeframe Evaluation
↓
EA062-RQ02
Body Ratio Evaluation
↓
EA062-RQ03
Breakout Lookback Evaluation
↓
EA062-RQ04
Trading Session Evaluation
↓
EA062-RQ05
Market-Regime Evaluation
↓
EA062-RQ06
BUY vs SELL Evaluation
↓
EA062-RQ07
Exit Management Evaluation
↓
Longer Historical Backtest
↓
Out-of-Sample Validation
↓
Robustness Testing
↓
Forward Testing
Only one major strategy component should be changed per controlled experiment.
Broad optimization is not authorized at the baseline stage.
Evidence Files
The baseline evidence package contains the original MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester report and associated charts.
Recommended repository structure:
Backtest/
└── EA-062_Body_Breakout/
├── README.md
├── ReportTester-952747(20260915-021809).html
├── ReportTester-952747(20260915-021809).png
├── ReportTester-952747-hst(20260915-021809).png
├── ReportTester-952747-mfemae(20260915-021809).png
└── ReportTester-952747-holding(20260915-021809).png
The original HTML Strategy Tester report should be retained unchanged as the primary machine-generated evidence.
The PNG files provide visual evidence for:
Balance Curve
Trade Distribution
MFE / MAE
Holding Time
Hourly / Weekday / Monthly Distribution
Reproducibility
To reproduce the baseline:
EA : EA-062_Body_Breakout
Symbol : XAUUSD.PRO
Timeframe: M1
Period : 2026-01-02 → 2026-03-31
Model : Real Ticks
Deposit : $100
Leverage : 1:500
Use:
Lot Size = 0.01
Stop Loss = 300
Take Profit = 600
Maximum Spread = 30
Breakout Lookback = 20
Breakout Buffer = 0
Minimum Body Ratio= 0.70
Break Even = true
BE Trigger = 150
BE Offset = 0
Trailing Stop = true
Trailing Start = 200
Trailing Distance = 100
Trailing Step = 10
Any future experiment that changes one or more of these values must receive a separate experiment ID and must not overwrite this baseline evidence.
Current Status
EA-062 Strategy Code : COMPLETE
Baseline Backtest #01 : COMPLETE
Baseline Evidence : AVAILABLE
Baseline Assessment : FAIL
Research : NEXT
Optimization : BLOCKED
Out-of-Sample Validation: NOT STARTED
Forward Testing : NOT STARTED
Live Trading : NOT APPROVED
The next stage is controlled research based on the evidence produced by this baseline.
Disclaimer
This backtest is a historical research experiment.
Historical performance does not guarantee future performance.
The baseline result is explicitly classified as FAIL and must not be presented as evidence that EA-062 is profitable or suitable for live trading.