Files

EA-040 — Two-Candle Continuation Backtest

Backtest Overview

This folder contains the MetaTrader 5 baseline backtest results for EA-040_Two-Candle_Continuation.

The test was performed on XAUUSD using real-tick historical data.

Test Configuration

Setting Value
Expert Advisor EA-040_Two-Candle_Continuation
Symbol XAUUSD.PRO
Timeframe M1
Test Period 2026-01-02 → 2026-04-01
Initial Deposit $1,000
Currency USD
Leverage 1:500
History Quality 100% real ticks
Bars 86,539
Ticks 40,346,891

The Strategy Tester report confirms the EA, symbol, timeframe, test period, initial deposit, leverage, and 100% real-tick history quality.

EA Parameters

Parameter Value
Lot Size 0.01
Stop Loss 300
Take Profit 600
Magic Number 123456
Slippage 10
Maximum Spread 30
Break Even Enabled
Break Even Start 150
Break Even Shift 10
Trailing Stop Enabled
Trailing Start 200
Trailing Step 50
Fast MA 20
Slow MA 50

Performance Summary

Metric Result
Total Net Profit -$993.54
Gross Profit $7,245.01
Gross Loss -$8,238.55
Profit Factor 0.88
Expected Payoff -$0.21
Recovery Factor -0.97
Sharpe Ratio -5.00
Max Balance Drawdown $1,023.27 (99.37%)
Max Equity Drawdown $1,023.27 (99.37%)

The strategy generated a net loss of $993.54 from the $1,000 starting balance, with maximal balance and equity drawdown reaching 99.37%.

Profit Factor was 0.88 and Expected Payoff was -$0.21 per trade. Recovery Factor and Sharpe Ratio were also negative.

Trade Statistics

Metric Result
Total Trades 4,630
Total Deals 9,260
Winning Trades 1,980 (42.76%)
Losing Trades 2,650 (57.24%)
Short Trades 2,212
Short Win Rate 41.00%
Long Trades 2,418
Long Win Rate 44.38%
Largest Winning Trade $32.66
Largest Losing Trade -$26.02
Average Winning Trade $3.66
Average Losing Trade -$3.11
Maximum Consecutive Wins 9
Maximum Consecutive Losses 14

The backtest generated 4,630 trades. 42.76% were profitable while 57.24% were losing trades.

Average profit per winning trade was $3.66 compared with an average loss of $3.11. The longest losing sequence reached 14 trades.

Position Holding Time

Metric Result
Minimum 00:00:01
Average 00:03:05
Maximum 03:38:01

The strategy operated primarily as a short-duration M1 trading system during this test.

Backtest Result

FAIL

The current EA configuration does not pass baseline profitability validation.

Primary reasons:

  • Total Net Profit: -$993.54
  • Profit Factor: 0.88
  • Winning Trades: 42.76%
  • Losing Trades: 57.24%
  • Maximum Drawdown: 99.37%
  • Expected Payoff: negative
  • Sharpe Ratio: negative

The balance curve shows a substantial long-term decline and the account finishes close to depletion.

This configuration should therefore not be treated as a validated trading configuration.

Research Interpretation

This result is still useful as the baseline benchmark for EA-040.

The EA successfully produced a large sample of 4,630 trades using 100% real ticks.

The baseline result indicates that the current combination of:

  • Two-candle continuation signal
  • SMA 20 / SMA 50 trend filter
  • SL 300
  • TP 600
  • Break Even
  • Trailing Stop

does not produce acceptable results under this specific XAUUSD.PRO M1 test configuration.

The next research stage should investigate which components are responsible for the negative expectancy before parameter optimization is attempted.

Current Status

EA implementation        COMPLETE
        ↓
Baseline backtest        COMPLETE
        ↓
Baseline result          FAIL
        ↓
Strategy research        NEXT

Baseline FAIL does not mean the research project failed.

It establishes the reference result against which future EA versions can be compared.

Files

Backtest/
└── EA-040_Two-Candle_Continuation/
    ├── README.md
    ├── ReportTester-952747.html
    ├── ReportTester-952747.png
    ├── ReportTester-952747-hst.png
    ├── ReportTester-952747-mfemae.png
    └── ReportTester-952747-holding.png

The HTML Strategy Tester Report should be retained as the primary evidence for this baseline backtest.

Conclusion

EA-040 Two-Candle Continuation — Baseline: FAIL

The baseline strategy is not profitable under the tested XAUUSD.PRO M1 configuration.

This backtest should be preserved as the baseline benchmark for subsequent research and EA revisions.