PaPP v2 Modello: modello mean-reversion (rev/speed/disc) pooled 4 FX + LOSO + doc

Co-Authored-By: Devin AI <158243242+devin-ai-integration[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>
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Pietro Giacobazzi
2026-06-17 09:28:15 +00:00
co-authored by Devin AI <158243242+devin-ai-integration[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>
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# Configurazione Fase 3 — modello di MEAN-REVERSION (rientro alla Mediana)
# pooling pulito sui major FX (dinamica di mean-reversion omogenea)
symbols: [EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD]
year_min: 1999
horizon: 10 # orizzonte per il target di classificazione rev_N
drop_trivial: true # esclude gli eventi gia' praticamente sulla Mediana
trivial_eps: 0.05 # soglia |dist_med_pct| (%) sotto cui l'evento e' "banale"
# feature note al momento dell'incrocio
features_numeric:
- abs_dist # |dist_med_pct| (derivata): quanto e' lontano dalla Mediana
- dist_med_pct
- cluster_pct
- cluster_exp
- slope_a
- slope_b
- vel_med
- acc_med
- vol_med
features_categorical:
- pair
- dir
- trend
- dow
- month
# validazione
oos_start_year: 2020
walkforward:
min_train_years: 8
step_years: 1
model:
kind: hist_gbdt
hist_gbdt:
max_depth: 4
learning_rate: 0.05
max_iter: 400
l2_regularization: 1.0
early_stopping: true
seed: 42