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HMA: Hull Moving Average

"Alan Hull looked at the lag in moving averages and said, 'I can fix that.' And he did, by making the math do gymnastics."

HMA (Hull Moving Average) is a solution to the eternal struggle between smoothness and lag. Most indicators force you to choose one; HMA gives you both. It achieves this by using weighted moving averages (WMAs) in a clever configuration that cancels out lag while maintaining the smoothing properties of the WMA.

Historical Context

Developed by Alan Hull in 2005, the HMA was designed to be "responsive, accurate, and smooth." Hull realized that lag is essentially a function of the period, and by combining averages of different periods (specifically, a full period and a half period), he could mathematically offset the lag.

Architecture & Physics

The HMA is built from three Weighted Moving Averages (WMAs):

  1. WMA(n/2): A fast WMA of half the period.
  2. WMA(n): A slow WMA of the full period.
  3. WMA(sqrt(n)): A smoothing WMA applied to the difference.

The core logic is: 2 \times \text{WMA}(n/2) - \text{WMA}(n). This operation "over-weights" the recent data, pushing the average forward to align with the current price. The final WMA smooths out the resulting noise.

Mathematical Foundation

\text{Raw} = 2 \times \text{WMA}(P, \frac{N}{2}) - \text{WMA}(P, N) \text{HMA} = \text{WMA}(\text{Raw}, \sqrt{N})

Where N is the period.

Performance Profile

Operation Count (Streaming Mode, Scalar)

HMA chains three WMA instances. Each WMA is O(1) with ~22 cycles (see WMA.md).

Component Operations Cost (cycles)
WMA(N/2) 4 ADD/SUB, 1 MUL, 1 DIV ~22
WMA(N) 4 ADD/SUB, 1 MUL, 1 DIV ~22
Combiner: 2×WMA₁ - WMA₂ 1 MUL, 1 SUB ~4
WMA(√N) 4 ADD/SUB, 1 MUL, 1 DIV ~22
Total ~18 ops ~70 cycles

Hot path breakdown:

  • Raw = 2 × WMA(n/2) - WMA(n): 1 MUL + 1 SUB
  • Three independent WMA updates execute in sequence
  • Each WMA uses O(1) dual running-sum algorithm

Batch Mode (SIMD)

Each WMA component benefits from SIMD prefix-sum optimization:

Component Scalar (512 bars) SIMD (AVX2) Speedup
WMA(N/2) batch ~11K cycles ~3K cycles ~4×
WMA(N) batch ~11K cycles ~3K cycles ~4×
Combiner ~2K cycles ~250 cycles ~8×
WMA(√N) batch ~11K cycles ~3K cycles ~4×
Total ~35K ~9K ~4×

Quality Metrics

Metric Score Notes
Accuracy 10/10 Matches Skender, Tulip exactly
Timeliness 9/10 Lag-compensated design; very responsive
Overshoot 4/10 Can overshoot on sharp reversals (algebraic correction side effect)
Smoothness 6/10 Final √N smoothing moderates noise

Zero-Allocation Design

HMA is implemented by chaining three Wma instances. Since Wma is zero-allocation, HMA inherits this property.

Validation

Validated against Skender, Tulip, and Ooples.

Library Status Notes
Skender Matches GetHma.
Tulip Matches hma.
Ooples Matches CalculateHullMovingAverage (with rounding caveats).
TA-Lib Not implemented.

External Library Discrepancies

OoplesFinance.StockIndicators: Discrepancies exist due to different rounding methods for integer periods.

  • QuanTAlib: Uses integer truncation (floor) for N/2 and \sqrt{N}.
  • Ooples: Uses Math.Round (nearest integer).

This results in different effective periods for N=14 (\sqrt{14} \approx 3.74 \to 3 vs 4) and others where the fractional part \ge 0.5. Validation tests match exactly for periods where rounding logic aligns (e.g., N=9, 20, 50).

C# Implementation Considerations

Compositional Architecture

HMA composes three independent Wma instances rather than implementing custom logic:

_wmaFull = new Wma(period);
_wmaHalf = new Wma(halfPeriod);
_wmaSqrt = new Wma(_sqrtPeriod);

This leverages WMA's optimized O(1) implementation for each component, maintaining the zero-allocation property.

Streaming Update Pipeline

The hot path chains the three WMA updates with minimal intermediate allocation:

TValue full = _wmaFull.Update(input, isNew);
TValue half = _wmaHalf.Update(input, isNew);
double intermediate = (2.0 * half.Value) - full.Value;
Last = _wmaSqrt.Update(new TValue(input.Time, intermediate), isNew);

The intermediate value computation uses scalar arithmetic—no buffer required.

ArrayPool for Batch Processing

The static Calculate method rents arrays from ArrayPool<double> for temporary storage:

double[] rentedFull = System.Buffers.ArrayPool<double>.Shared.Rent(len);
double[] rentedHalf = System.Buffers.ArrayPool<double>.Shared.Rent(len);
try
{
    Wma.Batch(source, fullWma, period);
    Wma.Batch(source, halfWma, halfPeriod);
    CalculateIntermediate(halfWma, fullWma, intermediate);
    Wma.Batch(intermediate, output, sqrtPeriod);
}
finally
{
    System.Buffers.ArrayPool<double>.Shared.Return(rentedFull);
    System.Buffers.ArrayPool<double>.Shared.Return(rentedHalf);
}

Buffer reuse: the halfWma array doubles as the intermediate buffer since values are consumed before being overwritten.

SIMD-Accelerated Intermediate Calculation

The combiner step 2 \times \text{WMA}_{half} - \text{WMA}_{full} is fully vectorized:

if (Avx512F.IsSupported && len >= Vector512<double>.Count)
{
    var vTwo = Vector512.Create(2.0);
    var vResult = Avx512F.Subtract(Avx512F.Multiply(vHalf, vTwo), vFull);
}
else if (Avx2.IsSupported && len >= Vector256<double>.Count)
{
    var vTwo = Vector256.Create(2.0);
    var vResult = Avx.Subtract(Avx.Multiply(vHalf, vTwo), vFull);
}
else if (AdvSimd.Arm64.IsSupported && len >= Vector128<double>.Count)
{
    var vTwo = Vector128.Create(2.0);
    var vResult = AdvSimd.Arm64.Subtract(AdvSimd.Arm64.Multiply(vHalf, vTwo), vFull);
}

This achieves 8× throughput on AVX-512, 4× on AVX2, and 2× on NEON.

Unsafe Memory Access

Direct memory references eliminate bounds checking in the SIMD loops:

ref double halfRef = ref MemoryMarshal.GetReference(halfWma);
ref double fullRef = ref MemoryMarshal.GetReference(fullWma);
ref double outRef = ref MemoryMarshal.GetReference(output);

var vHalf = Vector512.LoadUnsafe(ref Unsafe.Add(ref halfRef, i));

State Replay for TSeries Update

After batch calculation, streaming state is restored by replaying the trailing window:

int lookback = _period + _sqrtPeriod + 10;
int startIndex = Math.Max(0, len - lookback);
for (int i = startIndex; i < len; i++)
{
    Update(new TValue(source.Times[i], source.Values[i]));
}

This ensures subsequent streaming updates produce correct results after a batch operation.

Integer Period Truncation

Periods use integer truncation (not rounding) for consistent behavior:

int halfPeriod = period / 2;
_sqrtPeriod = (int)Math.Sqrt(period);

This differs from some implementations that use Math.Round, affecting results for certain periods.

Memory Layout

Component Size Purpose
_wmaFull ~152 + 8×period bytes Full-period WMA
_wmaHalf ~152 + 4×period bytes Half-period WMA
_wmaSqrt ~152 + 8×√period bytes Smoothing WMA
Scalars ~32 bytes Period values, sample count
Total ~488 + 12N + 8√N bytes Per-instance footprint

For HMA(100), total memory is approximately 1.7 KB per instance (three WMA instances combined).

Common Pitfalls

  1. Overshoot: Like DEMA, HMA can overshoot price turns because of the lag correction.
  2. Period Sensitivity: The \sqrt{N} smoothing is hardcoded into the definition. You can't easily tweak the smoothing independently of the lag correction without breaking the "Hull" definition.
  3. Integer Math: The periods N/2 and \sqrt{N} are rounded to integers. This can cause slight discrepancies between implementations depending on rounding rules. Standard integer truncation is used in QuanTAlib.