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Errors

"All models are wrong. Error metrics tell you how wrong." Adapted from George Box

Error metrics and loss functions for model/strategy evaluation. All error indicators accept two input series (actual and predicted values) and compute rolling error metrics over a configurable period.

Indicators

Indicator Full Name Description
HUBER Huber Loss Combines MSE and MAE. Configurable outlier threshold δ.
LOGCOSH Log-Cosh Loss Smooth approximation to MAE. Twice-differentiable.
MAE Mean Absolute Error Average of absolute differences. Robust baseline.
MAAPE Mean Arctangent APE Bounded percentage error using arctangent. Range: 0 to π/2.
MAPD Mean Absolute % Deviation Percentage error relative to mean of actual and predicted.
MAPE Mean Absolute % Error Percentage error relative to actual. Unbounded when actual≈0.
MASE Mean Absolute Scaled Error Scale-free. Uses naive forecast as baseline.
MDAE Median Absolute Error Median of absolute differences. Outlier-robust. O(n log n).
MDAPE Median Absolute % Error Median percentage error. Outlier-robust. O(n log n).
ME Mean Error Signed average. Detects systematic bias.
MPE Mean Percentage Error Signed percentage. Shows directional bias.
MRAE Mean Relative Absolute Error Error relative to naive forecast.
MSE Mean Squared Error Squared differences. Penalizes large errors heavily.
MSLE Mean Squared Log Error MSE on log-transformed values. For multiplicative errors.
PSEUDOHUBER Pseudo-Huber Loss Smooth Huber approximation. Fully differentiable.
QUANTILE Quantile Loss Asymmetric loss for quantile regression. Pinball loss.
RAE Relative Absolute Error Absolute error relative to mean predictor.
RMSE Root Mean Squared Error √MSE. Same units as input. Penalizes outliers.
RMSLE Root Mean Squared Log Error √MSLE. For multiplicative error structures.
RSE Relative Squared Error Squared error relative to mean predictor.
RSQUARED R² (Coefficient of Determination) Variance explained. 1 = perfect. Can be negative.
SMAPE Symmetric MAPE Bounded 0-200%. Symmetric around zero.
THEILU Theil's U Statistic Forecast vs naive. <1 beats naive. >1 worse than naive.
TUKEY Tukey Biweight Loss Hard-rejects outliers beyond threshold. Redescending.
WMAPE Weighted MAPE Volume-weighted percentage error. For heterogeneous data.
WRMSE Weighted RMSE Weighted root mean squared error. Custom observation weighting.