using System; using System.Linq; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// VARIANCE: Squared Deviation Risk Measure /// A statistical measure that quantifies the spread of data points around their /// mean value. Variance is fundamental to risk assessment and portfolio theory, /// providing the basis for many financial models. /// /// /// The Variance calculation process: /// 1. Calculates mean of the data /// 2. Computes squared deviations from mean /// 3. Sums squared deviations /// 4. Divides by n or (n-1) /// /// Key characteristics: /// - Measures data dispersion /// - Squared units of input data /// - Always non-negative /// - Population or sample versions /// - Foundation for risk metrics /// /// Formula: /// Population: σ² = Σ(x - μ)² / N /// Sample: s² = Σ(x - x̄)² / (n-1) /// where: /// x = values /// μ, x̄ = mean /// N, n = count /// /// Market Applications: /// - Portfolio optimization /// - Risk measurement /// - Modern Portfolio Theory /// - Asset allocation /// - Volatility analysis /// /// Sources: /// Harry Markowitz - "Portfolio Selection" (1952) /// https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance /// /// Note: Basis for Modern Portfolio Theory and risk models /// public class Variance : AbstractBase { private readonly bool IsPopulation; private readonly CircularBuffer _buffer; /// The number of points to consider for variance calculation. /// True for population variance, false for sample variance (default). /// Thrown when period is less than 2. public Variance(int period, bool isPopulation = false) { if (period < 2) { throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(period), "Period must be greater than or equal to 2."); } IsPopulation = isPopulation; WarmupPeriod = 0; _buffer = new CircularBuffer(period); Name = $"Variance(period={period}, population={isPopulation})"; Init(); } /// The data source object that publishes updates. /// The number of points to consider for variance calculation. /// True for population variance, false for sample variance (default). public Variance(object source, int period, bool isPopulation = false) : this(period, isPopulation) { var pubEvent = source.GetType().GetEvent("Pub"); pubEvent?.AddEventHandler(source, new ValueSignal(Sub)); } public override void Init() { base.Init(); _buffer.Clear(); } protected override void ManageState(bool isNew) { if (isNew) { _lastValidValue = Input.Value; _index++; } } protected override double Calculation() { ManageState(Input.IsNew); _buffer.Add(Input.Value, Input.IsNew); double variance = 0; if (_buffer.Count > 1) { var values = _buffer.GetSpan().ToArray(); double mean = values.Average(); // Calculate sum of squared deviations double sumOfSquaredDifferences = values.Sum(x => Math.Pow(x - mean, 2)); // Use appropriate divisor based on population/sample calculation double divisor = IsPopulation ? _buffer.Count : _buffer.Count - 1; variance = sumOfSquaredDifferences / divisor; } IsHot = true; return variance; } }