using System; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// MSLE: Mean Squared Logarithmic Error /// A variation of MSE that operates on log-transformed values. MSLE is particularly /// useful for data with exponential growth or when errors in larger values should /// not be penalized more heavily than errors in smaller values. /// /// /// The MSLE calculation process: /// 1. Adds 1 to both actual and predicted values (to handle zeros) /// 2. Takes natural log of both values /// 3. Calculates squared difference of logs /// 4. Averages the squared differences /// /// Key characteristics: /// - Scale-independent due to log transformation /// - Penalizes underestimates more than overestimates /// - Handles exponential trends well /// - More sensitive to relative differences /// - Can handle zero values (adds 1 before log) /// /// Formula: /// MSLE = (1/n) * Σ(log(actual + 1) - log(predicted + 1))² /// /// Sources: /// https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/model_evaluation.html#mean-squared-logarithmic-error /// https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/root-mean-square-log-error-rmse-vs-rmlse-935c6cc1802a /// /// Note: Often used in cases where target values follow exponential growth /// public class Msle : AbstractBase { private readonly CircularBuffer _actualBuffer; private readonly CircularBuffer _predictedBuffer; /// The number of points over which to calculate the MSLE. /// Thrown when period is less than 1. public Msle(int period) { if (period < 1) { throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(period), "Period must be greater than or equal to 1."); } WarmupPeriod = period; _actualBuffer = new CircularBuffer(period); _predictedBuffer = new CircularBuffer(period); Name = $"Msle(period={period})"; Init(); } /// The data source object that publishes updates. /// The number of points over which to calculate the MSLE. public Msle(object source, int period) : this(period) { var pubEvent = source.GetType().GetEvent("Pub"); pubEvent?.AddEventHandler(source, new ValueSignal(Sub)); } public override void Init() { base.Init(); _actualBuffer.Clear(); _predictedBuffer.Clear(); } protected override void ManageState(bool isNew) { if (isNew) { _lastValidValue = Input.Value; _index++; } } protected override double Calculation() { ManageState(Input.IsNew); double actual = Input.Value; _actualBuffer.Add(actual, Input.IsNew); // If no predicted value provided, use mean of actual values double predicted = double.IsNaN(Input2.Value) ? _actualBuffer.Average() : Input2.Value; _predictedBuffer.Add(predicted, Input.IsNew); double msle = 0; if (_actualBuffer.Count > 0) { var actualValues = _actualBuffer.GetSpan().ToArray(); var predictedValues = _predictedBuffer.GetSpan().ToArray(); double sumSquaredLogError = 0; for (int i = 0; i < _actualBuffer.Count; i++) { double logActual = Math.Log(actualValues[i] + 1); double logPredicted = Math.Log(predictedValues[i] + 1); double error = logActual - logPredicted; sumSquaredLogError += error * error; } msle = sumSquaredLogError / _actualBuffer.Count; } IsHot = _index >= WarmupPeriod; return msle; } }