using System;
namespace QuanTAlib;
///
/// MSE: Mean Squared Error
/// A fundamental error metric that measures the average of squared differences
/// between predicted and actual values. MSE heavily penalizes large errors due
/// to the squaring operation.
///
///
/// The MSE calculation process:
/// 1. Calculates error (actual - predicted) for each point
/// 2. Squares each error value
/// 3. Averages the squared errors
///
/// Key characteristics:
/// - Heavily penalizes large errors
/// - Always non-negative
/// - Units are squared (harder to interpret)
/// - More sensitive to outliers than MAE
/// - Differentiable (useful for optimization)
///
/// Formula:
/// MSE = (1/n) * Σ(actual - predicted)²
///
/// Sources:
/// https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_squared_error
/// https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/statistics-definitions/mean-squared-error/
///
/// Note: Often used in optimization due to its mathematical properties
///
public class Mse : AbstractBase
{
private readonly CircularBuffer _actualBuffer;
private readonly CircularBuffer _predictedBuffer;
/// The number of points over which to calculate the MSE.
/// Thrown when period is less than 1.
public Mse(int period)
{
if (period < 1)
{
throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(period), "Period must be greater than or equal to 1.");
}
WarmupPeriod = period;
_actualBuffer = new CircularBuffer(period);
_predictedBuffer = new CircularBuffer(period);
Name = $"Mse(period={period})";
Init();
}
/// The data source object that publishes updates.
/// The number of points over which to calculate the MSE.
public Mse(object source, int period) : this(period)
{
var pubEvent = source.GetType().GetEvent("Pub");
pubEvent?.AddEventHandler(source, new ValueSignal(Sub));
}
public override void Init()
{
base.Init();
_actualBuffer.Clear();
_predictedBuffer.Clear();
}
protected override void ManageState(bool isNew)
{
if (isNew)
{
_lastValidValue = Input.Value;
_index++;
}
}
protected override double Calculation()
{
ManageState(Input.IsNew);
double actual = Input.Value;
_actualBuffer.Add(actual, Input.IsNew);
// If no predicted value provided, use mean of actual values
double predicted = double.IsNaN(Input2.Value) ? _actualBuffer.Average() : Input2.Value;
_predictedBuffer.Add(predicted, Input.IsNew);
double mse = 0;
if (_actualBuffer.Count > 0)
{
var actualValues = _actualBuffer.GetSpan().ToArray();
var predictedValues = _predictedBuffer.GetSpan().ToArray();
double sumSquaredError = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < _actualBuffer.Count; i++)
{
double error = actualValues[i] - predictedValues[i];
sumSquaredError += error * error;
}
mse = sumSquaredError / _actualBuffer.Count;
}
IsHot = _index >= WarmupPeriod;
return mse;
}
}