namespace QuanTAlib;
///
/// Represents a Z-score calculator that measures how many standard deviations
/// an element is from the mean of a set of values.
///
///
/// The Zscore class calculates the Z-score (also known as standard score) for
/// the most recent value in a given period. It uses a circular buffer to
/// efficiently manage the data points within the specified period.
///
/// In financial analysis, Z-score is important for:
/// - Identifying outliers or unusual price movements.
/// - Normalizing data across different scales or time periods.
/// - Assessing the relative position of a value within its historical distribution.
/// - Supporting trading strategies based on mean reversion or momentum.
///
public class Zscore : AbstractBase
{
///
/// The number of data points to consider for the Z-score calculation.
///
private readonly int Period;
///
/// Circular buffer to store the most recent data points.
///
private readonly CircularBuffer _buffer;
///
/// Initializes a new instance of the Zscore class with the specified period.
///
/// The period over which to calculate the Z-score.
///
/// Thrown when period is less than 2.
///
public Zscore(int period)
{
if (period < 2)
{
throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(period), "Period must be greater than or equal to 2 for Z-score calculation.");
}
Period = period;
WarmupPeriod = 2;
_buffer = new CircularBuffer(period);
Name = $"ZScore(period={period})";
Init();
}
///
/// Initializes a new instance of the Zscore class with the specified source and period.
///
/// The source object to subscribe to for value updates.
/// The period over which to calculate the Z-score.
public Zscore(object source, int period) : this(period)
{
var pubEvent = source.GetType().GetEvent("Pub");
pubEvent?.AddEventHandler(source, new ValueSignal(Sub));
}
///
/// Initializes the Zscore instance by clearing the buffer.
///
public override void Init()
{
base.Init();
_buffer.Clear();
}
///
/// Manages the state of the Zscore instance based on whether a new value is being processed.
///
/// Indicates whether the current input is a new value.
protected override void ManageState(bool isNew)
{
if (isNew)
{
_lastValidValue = Input.Value;
_index++;
}
}
///
/// Performs the Z-score calculation for the current period.
///
///
/// The calculated Z-score value for the most recent input in the current period.
///
///
/// This method calculates the Z-score using the formula:
/// Z = (x - μ) / σ
/// where x is the input value, μ is the mean of the period, and σ is the sample standard deviation.
/// If there are fewer than 2 data points or if the standard deviation is 0, the method returns 0.
///
/// Interpretation of results:
/// - A Z-score of 0 indicates that the data point is exactly on the mean.
/// - A positive Z-score indicates the data point is above the mean.
/// - A negative Z-score indicates the data point is below the mean.
/// - The magnitude of the Z-score represents how many standard deviations away from the mean the data point is.
/// - In a normal distribution, about 68% of the values have a Z-score between -1 and 1,
/// 95% between -2 and 2, and 99.7% between -3 and 3.
///
protected override double Calculation()
{
ManageState(Input.IsNew);
_buffer.Add(Input.Value, Input.IsNew);
double zScore = 0;
if (_buffer.Count >= 2)
{ // We need at least 2 data points for Z-score
var values = _buffer.GetSpan().ToArray();
double mean = values.Average();
double n = values.Length;
double sumSquaredDeviations = values.Sum(x => Math.Pow(x - mean, 2));
double standardDeviation = Math.Sqrt(sumSquaredDeviations / (n - 1)); // Sample standard deviation
if (standardDeviation != 0)
{ // Avoid division by zero
zScore = (Input.Value - mean) / standardDeviation;
}
}
IsHot = _buffer.Count >= Period;
return zScore;
}
}