using System.Runtime.CompilerServices;
using System.Runtime.InteropServices;
namespace QuanTAlib;
///
/// QuantileLoss: Quantile Loss (Pinball Loss)
///
///
/// Quantile Loss (also known as Pinball Loss) is used for quantile regression.
/// It asymmetrically penalizes over- and under-predictions based on the quantile
/// parameter. This is useful for generating prediction intervals.
///
/// Formula:
/// QuantileLoss = (1/n) * Σ max(q*(actual - predicted), (q-1)*(actual - predicted))
///
/// Which simplifies to:
/// - If actual >= predicted: q * (actual - predicted)
/// - If actual < predicted: (1-q) * (predicted - actual)
///
/// Key properties:
/// - Asymmetric penalty based on quantile parameter q
/// - q = 0.5 gives MAE (median regression)
/// - q > 0.5 penalizes under-prediction more heavily
/// - q < 0.5 penalizes over-prediction more heavily
/// - Used for prediction intervals (e.g., q=0.1 and q=0.9 for 80% interval)
///
[SkipLocalsInit]
public sealed class QuantileLoss : AbstractBase
{
private readonly RingBuffer _lossBuffer;
private readonly double _quantile;
[StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)]
private record struct State(double LossSum, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted, int TickCount);
private State _state;
private State _p_state;
private const int ResyncInterval = 1000;
public QuantileLoss(int period, double quantile = 0.5)
{
if (period <= 0)
throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period));
if (quantile <= 0.0 || quantile >= 1.0)
throw new ArgumentException("Quantile must be between 0 and 1 (exclusive)", nameof(quantile));
_lossBuffer = new RingBuffer(period);
_quantile = quantile;
Name = $"QuantileLoss({period},{quantile:F2})";
WarmupPeriod = period;
}
public double Quantile => _quantile;
public override bool IsHot => _lossBuffer.IsFull;
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true)
{
double actualVal = actual.Value;
double predictedVal = predicted.Value;
if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal))
actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0;
else
_state.LastValidActual = actualVal;
if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal))
predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0;
else
_state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal;
// Pinball loss: max(q*(y-p), (q-1)*(y-p))
double diff = actualVal - predictedVal;
double loss = diff >= 0 ? _quantile * diff : (_quantile - 1.0) * diff;
if (isNew)
{
_p_state = _state;
double removedLoss = _lossBuffer.Count == _lossBuffer.Capacity ? _lossBuffer.Oldest : 0.0;
_state.LossSum = _state.LossSum - removedLoss + loss;
_lossBuffer.Add(loss);
_state.TickCount++;
if (_lossBuffer.IsFull && _state.TickCount >= ResyncInterval)
{
_state.TickCount = 0;
_state.LossSum = _lossBuffer.RecalculateSum();
}
}
else
{
_state = _p_state;
double removedLoss = _lossBuffer.Count == _lossBuffer.Capacity ? _lossBuffer.Oldest : 0.0;
_state.LossSum = _state.LossSum - removedLoss + loss;
_lossBuffer.UpdateNewest(loss);
_state.LossSum = _lossBuffer.RecalculateSum();
}
// QuantileLoss = (1/n) * Σ loss
double result = _lossBuffer.Count > 0 ? _state.LossSum / _lossBuffer.Count : 0.0;
Last = new TValue(actual.Time, result);
PubEvent(Last, isNew);
return Last;
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true)
{
return Update(new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, actual), new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, predicted), isNew);
}
public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true)
{
throw new NotSupportedException("QuantileLoss requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted).");
}
public override TSeries Update(TSeries source)
{
throw new NotSupportedException("QuantileLoss requires two inputs. Use Calculate(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period, quantile).");
}
public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null)
{
throw new NotSupportedException("QuantileLoss requires two inputs.");
}
public override void Reset()
{
_lossBuffer.Clear();
_state = default;
_p_state = default;
Last = default;
}
public static TSeries Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period, double quantile = 0.5)
{
if (actual.Count != predicted.Count)
throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted));
int len = actual.Count;
var t = new List(len);
var v = new List(len);
CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len);
CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len);
var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t);
var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v);
Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period, quantile);
actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan);
return new TSeries(t, v);
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period, double quantile = 0.5)
{
if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length)
throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output));
if (period <= 0)
throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period));
if (quantile <= 0.0 || quantile >= 1.0)
throw new ArgumentException("Quantile must be between 0 and 1 (exclusive)", nameof(quantile));
int len = actual.Length;
if (len == 0) return;
const int StackAllocThreshold = 256;
Span lossBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold
? stackalloc double[period]
: new double[period];
double lossSum = 0;
double lastValidActual = 0;
double lastValidPredicted = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < len; k++)
{
if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; }
}
for (int k = 0; k < len; k++)
{
if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; }
}
int bufferIndex = 0;
int i = 0;
int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len);
for (; i < warmupEnd; i++)
{
double act = actual[i];
double pred = predicted[i];
if (double.IsFinite(act)) lastValidActual = act; else act = lastValidActual;
if (double.IsFinite(pred)) lastValidPredicted = pred; else pred = lastValidPredicted;
double diff = act - pred;
double loss = diff >= 0 ? quantile * diff : (quantile - 1.0) * diff;
lossSum += loss;
lossBuffer[i] = loss;
output[i] = lossSum / (i + 1);
}
int tickCount = 0;
for (; i < len; i++)
{
double act = actual[i];
double pred = predicted[i];
if (double.IsFinite(act)) lastValidActual = act; else act = lastValidActual;
if (double.IsFinite(pred)) lastValidPredicted = pred; else pred = lastValidPredicted;
double diff = act - pred;
double loss = diff >= 0 ? quantile * diff : (quantile - 1.0) * diff;
lossSum = lossSum - lossBuffer[bufferIndex] + loss;
lossBuffer[bufferIndex] = loss;
bufferIndex++;
if (bufferIndex >= period) bufferIndex = 0;
output[i] = lossSum / period;
tickCount++;
if (tickCount >= ResyncInterval)
{
tickCount = 0;
double recalcSum = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < period; k++)
recalcSum += lossBuffer[k];
lossSum = recalcSum;
}
}
}
}