using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// MSLE: Mean Squared Logarithmic Error /// /// /// MSLE measures the ratio between actual and predicted values using logarithms, /// penalizing under-predictions more than over-predictions of the same magnitude. /// Useful when targets span several orders of magnitude. /// /// Formula: /// MSLE = (1/n) * Σ(log(1 + actual) - log(1 + predicted))² /// /// Key properties: /// - Robust to outliers (logarithmic compression) /// - Penalizes under-predictions more heavily /// - Requires non-negative values (uses 1 + x to handle zeros) /// - Scale-independent for multiplicative relationships /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class Msle : AbstractBase { private readonly RingBuffer _buffer; [StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)] private record struct State(double Sum, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted, int TickCount); private State _state; private State _p_state; private const int ResyncInterval = 1000; public Msle(int period) { if (period <= 0) throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); _buffer = new RingBuffer(period); Name = $"Msle({period})"; WarmupPeriod = period; } public override bool IsHot => _buffer.IsFull; [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true) { double actualVal = actual.Value; double predictedVal = predicted.Value; if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal) || actualVal < 0) actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) && _state.LastValidActual >= 0 ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0; else _state.LastValidActual = actualVal; if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal) || predictedVal < 0) predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) && _state.LastValidPredicted >= 0 ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0; else _state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal; // MSLE formula: (log(1 + actual) - log(1 + predicted))² double logActual = Math.Log(1.0 + actualVal); double logPredicted = Math.Log(1.0 + predictedVal); double logError = logActual - logPredicted; double squaredLogError = logError * logError; if (isNew) { _p_state = _state; double removedValue = _buffer.Count == _buffer.Capacity ? _buffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.Sum = _state.Sum - removedValue + squaredLogError; _buffer.Add(squaredLogError); _state.TickCount++; if (_buffer.IsFull && _state.TickCount >= ResyncInterval) { _state.TickCount = 0; _state.Sum = _buffer.RecalculateSum(); } } else { _state = _p_state; double removedValue = _buffer.Count == _buffer.Capacity ? _buffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.Sum = _state.Sum - removedValue + squaredLogError; _buffer.UpdateNewest(squaredLogError); _state.Sum = _buffer.RecalculateSum(); } double result = _buffer.Count > 0 ? _state.Sum / _buffer.Count : squaredLogError; Last = new TValue(actual.Time, result); PubEvent(Last, isNew); return Last; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true) { return Update(new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, actual), new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, predicted), isNew); } public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true) { throw new NotSupportedException("MSLE requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted)."); } public override TSeries Update(TSeries source) { throw new NotSupportedException("MSLE requires two inputs. Use Calculate(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period)."); } public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null) { throw new NotSupportedException("MSLE requires two inputs."); } public override void Reset() { _buffer.Clear(); _state = default; _p_state = default; Last = default; } public static TSeries Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); if (period <= 0) throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) return; const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; Span buffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; double sum = 0; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k]) && actual[k] >= 0) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k]) && predicted[k] >= 0) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } int bufferIndex = 0; int i = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (; i < warmupEnd; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act) && act >= 0) lastValidActual = act; else act = lastValidActual; if (double.IsFinite(pred) && pred >= 0) lastValidPredicted = pred; else pred = lastValidPredicted; double logActual = Math.Log(1.0 + act); double logPredicted = Math.Log(1.0 + pred); double logError = logActual - logPredicted; double squaredLogError = logError * logError; sum += squaredLogError; buffer[i] = squaredLogError; output[i] = sum / (i + 1); } int tickCount = 0; for (; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act) && act >= 0) lastValidActual = act; else act = lastValidActual; if (double.IsFinite(pred) && pred >= 0) lastValidPredicted = pred; else pred = lastValidPredicted; double logActual = Math.Log(1.0 + act); double logPredicted = Math.Log(1.0 + pred); double logError = logActual - logPredicted; double squaredLogError = logError * logError; sum = sum - buffer[bufferIndex] + squaredLogError; buffer[bufferIndex] = squaredLogError; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) bufferIndex = 0; output[i] = sum / period; tickCount++; if (tickCount >= ResyncInterval) { tickCount = 0; double recalcSum = 0; for (int k = 0; k < period; k++) recalcSum += buffer[k]; sum = recalcSum; } } } }