using System.Numerics; using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; using System.Runtime.Intrinsics; using System.Runtime.Intrinsics.X86; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// ME: Mean Error (also known as Mean Bias Error) /// /// /// ME measures the average error between actual and predicted values, /// preserving the sign to indicate systematic bias in predictions. /// /// Formula: /// ME = (1/n) * Σ(actual - predicted) /// /// Key properties: /// - Can be positive or negative /// - Positive ME indicates under-prediction (actual > predicted) /// - Negative ME indicates over-prediction (actual < predicted) /// - ME = 0 indicates no systematic bias (but not necessarily accurate predictions) /// - Errors can cancel out, hiding large individual errors /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class Me : AbstractBase { private readonly RingBuffer _buffer; [StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)] private record struct State(double Sum, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted, int TickCount); private State _state; private State _p_state; private const int ResyncInterval = 1000; public Me(int period) { if (period <= 0) throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); _buffer = new RingBuffer(period); Name = $"Me({period})"; WarmupPeriod = period; } public override bool IsHot => _buffer.IsFull; [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true) { double actualVal = actual.Value; double predictedVal = predicted.Value; if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal)) actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0; else _state.LastValidActual = actualVal; if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal)) predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0; else _state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal; double error = actualVal - predictedVal; // Preserves sign! if (isNew) { _p_state = _state; double removedValue = _buffer.Count == _buffer.Capacity ? _buffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.Sum = _state.Sum - removedValue + error; _buffer.Add(error); _state.TickCount++; if (_buffer.IsFull && _state.TickCount >= ResyncInterval) { _state.TickCount = 0; _state.Sum = _buffer.RecalculateSum(); } } else { _state = _p_state; double removedValue = _buffer.Count == _buffer.Capacity ? _buffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.Sum = _state.Sum - removedValue + error; _buffer.UpdateNewest(error); _state.Sum = _buffer.RecalculateSum(); } double result = _buffer.Count > 0 ? _state.Sum / _buffer.Count : error; Last = new TValue(actual.Time, result); PubEvent(Last, isNew); return Last; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true) { return Update(new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, actual), new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, predicted), isNew); } public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true) { throw new NotSupportedException("ME requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted)."); } public override TSeries Update(TSeries source) { throw new NotSupportedException("ME requires two inputs. Use Calculate(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period)."); } public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null) { throw new NotSupportedException("ME requires two inputs."); } public override void Reset() { _buffer.Clear(); _state = default; _p_state = default; Last = default; } public static TSeries Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); if (period <= 0) throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) return; const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; Span buffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; // Pre-compute signed errors using SIMD if available and data is clean Span errors = len <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[len] : new double[len]; ComputeSignedErrors(actual, predicted, errors); // Apply rolling window average with O(1) per element double sum = 0; int bufferIndex = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (int i = 0; i < warmupEnd; i++) { sum += errors[i]; buffer[i] = errors[i]; output[i] = sum / (i + 1); } int tickCount = 0; for (int i = warmupEnd; i < len; i++) { double error = errors[i]; sum = sum - buffer[bufferIndex] + error; buffer[bufferIndex] = error; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) bufferIndex = 0; output[i] = sum / period; tickCount++; if (tickCount >= ResyncInterval) { tickCount = 0; double recalcSum = 0; for (int k = 0; k < period; k++) recalcSum += buffer[k]; sum = recalcSum; } } } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] private static void ComputeSignedErrors( ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span errors) { int len = actual.Length; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; // Find first valid values for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } // Try SIMD path for clean data (no NaN/Inf) if (Avx2.IsSupported && len >= Vector256.Count) { // Check if data is clean (no NaN/Inf) - sample check bool dataClean = true; int checkStep = Math.Max(1, len / 32); for (int i = 0; i < len && dataClean; i += checkStep) { dataClean = double.IsFinite(actual[i]) && double.IsFinite(predicted[i]); } if (dataClean) { ComputeSignedErrorsSimd(actual, predicted, errors); return; } } // Scalar fallback with NaN handling ComputeSignedErrorsScalar(actual, predicted, errors, lastValidActual, lastValidPredicted); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] private static void ComputeSignedErrorsSimd( ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span errors) { int len = actual.Length; int vectorSize = Vector256.Count; int vectorEnd = len - (len % vectorSize); int i = 0; for (; i < vectorEnd; i += vectorSize) { Vector256 actVec = Vector256.LoadUnsafe(ref MemoryMarshal.GetReference(actual.Slice(i))); Vector256 predVec = Vector256.LoadUnsafe(ref MemoryMarshal.GetReference(predicted.Slice(i))); // error = actual - predicted (preserves sign) Vector256 errorVec = Avx.Subtract(actVec, predVec); errorVec.StoreUnsafe(ref MemoryMarshal.GetReference(errors.Slice(i))); } // Handle remainder with scalar for (; i < len; i++) { errors[i] = actual[i] - predicted[i]; } } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] private static void ComputeSignedErrorsScalar( ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span errors, double lastValidActual, double lastValidPredicted) { int len = actual.Length; for (int i = 0; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) lastValidActual = act; else act = lastValidActual; if (double.IsFinite(pred)) lastValidPredicted = pred; else pred = lastValidPredicted; errors[i] = act - pred; } } }