using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// ME: Mean Error /// A basic error metric that measures the average difference between actual and /// predicted values. Unlike MAE, it allows positive and negative errors to cancel /// out, making it useful for detecting systematic bias in predictions. /// /// /// The ME calculation process: /// 1. Calculates error (actual - predicted) for each point /// 2. Sums all errors (allowing cancellation) /// 3. Divides by the number of observations /// /// Key characteristics: /// - Same units as input data /// - Can detect systematic bias /// - Positive ME indicates underprediction /// - Negative ME indicates overprediction /// - Errors can cancel out /// /// Formula: /// ME = (1/n) * Σ(actual - predicted) /// /// Sources: /// https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_signed_difference /// https://www.statisticshowto.com/mean-error/ /// /// Note: Also known as Mean Bias Error (MBE) or Mean Signed Difference (MSD) /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class Me : AbstractBase { private readonly CircularBuffer _actualBuffer; private readonly CircularBuffer _predictedBuffer; /// The number of points over which to calculate the ME. /// Thrown when period is less than 1. [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public Me(int period) { if (period < 1) { throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(period), "Period must be greater than or equal to 1."); } WarmupPeriod = period; _actualBuffer = new CircularBuffer(period); _predictedBuffer = new CircularBuffer(period); Name = $"Me(period={period})"; Init(); } /// The data source object that publishes updates. /// The number of points over which to calculate the ME. [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public Me(object source, int period) : this(period) { var pubEvent = source.GetType().GetEvent("Pub"); pubEvent?.AddEventHandler(source, new ValueSignal(Sub)); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public override void Init() { base.Init(); _actualBuffer.Clear(); _predictedBuffer.Clear(); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] protected override void ManageState(bool isNew) { if (isNew) { _lastValidValue = Input.Value; _index++; } } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining | MethodImplOptions.AggressiveOptimization)] private static double CalculateError(double actual, double predicted) { return actual - predicted; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining | MethodImplOptions.AggressiveOptimization)] protected override double Calculation() { ManageState(Input.IsNew); double actual = Input.Value; _actualBuffer.Add(actual, Input.IsNew); // If no predicted value provided, use mean of actual values double predicted = double.IsNaN(Input2.Value) ? _actualBuffer.Average() : Input2.Value; _predictedBuffer.Add(predicted, Input.IsNew); double me = 0; if (_actualBuffer.Count > 0) { ReadOnlySpan actualValues = _actualBuffer.GetSpan(); ReadOnlySpan predictedValues = _predictedBuffer.GetSpan(); double sumError = 0; for (int i = 0; i < actualValues.Length; i++) { sumError += CalculateError(actualValues[i], predictedValues[i]); } me = sumError / actualValues.Length; } IsHot = _index >= WarmupPeriod; return me; } }