using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// R²: R-squared (Coefficient of Determination) /// /// /// R² measures the proportion of variance in the actual values that is /// predictable from the predicted values. It indicates how well the predictions /// approximate the actual data points. /// /// Formula: /// R² = 1 - (RSS / TSS) = 1 - RSE /// where RSS = Σ(actual - predicted)², TSS = Σ(actual - mean(actual))² /// /// Key properties: /// - R² = 1 means perfect predictions /// - R² = 0 means predictions equal mean predictor /// - R² < 0 means predictions worse than mean predictor /// - Range: (-∞, 1] /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class Rsquared : AbstractBase { private readonly RingBuffer _actualBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _sqResidualBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _sqTotalBuffer; [StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)] private record struct State( double ActualSum, double SqResidualSum, double SqTotalSum, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted, int TickCount); private State _state; private State _p_state; private const int ResyncInterval = 1000; public Rsquared(int period) { if (period <= 0) throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); _actualBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _sqResidualBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _sqTotalBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); Name = $"R²({period})"; WarmupPeriod = period; } public override bool IsHot => _actualBuffer.IsFull; [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true) { double actualVal = actual.Value; double predictedVal = predicted.Value; if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal)) actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0; else _state.LastValidActual = actualVal; if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal)) predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0; else _state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal; if (isNew) { _p_state = _state; // Update actual buffer for mean calculation double removedActual = _actualBuffer.Count == _actualBuffer.Capacity ? _actualBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.ActualSum = _state.ActualSum - removedActual + actualVal; _actualBuffer.Add(actualVal); // Calculate mean and errors double mean = _state.ActualSum / _actualBuffer.Count; double residual = actualVal - predictedVal; double totalDev = actualVal - mean; double sqResidual = residual * residual; double sqTotal = totalDev * totalDev; // Update squared residual buffer (RSS) double removedResidual = _sqResidualBuffer.Count == _sqResidualBuffer.Capacity ? _sqResidualBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.SqResidualSum = _state.SqResidualSum - removedResidual + sqResidual; _sqResidualBuffer.Add(sqResidual); // Update squared total buffer (TSS) double removedTotal = _sqTotalBuffer.Count == _sqTotalBuffer.Capacity ? _sqTotalBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.SqTotalSum = _state.SqTotalSum - removedTotal + sqTotal; _sqTotalBuffer.Add(sqTotal); _state.TickCount++; if (_actualBuffer.IsFull && _state.TickCount >= ResyncInterval) { _state.TickCount = 0; _state.ActualSum = _actualBuffer.RecalculateSum(); _state.SqResidualSum = _sqResidualBuffer.RecalculateSum(); _state.SqTotalSum = _sqTotalBuffer.RecalculateSum(); } } else { _state = _p_state; // Update actual buffer double removedActual = _actualBuffer.Count == _actualBuffer.Capacity ? _actualBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.ActualSum = _state.ActualSum - removedActual + actualVal; _actualBuffer.UpdateNewest(actualVal); _state.ActualSum = _actualBuffer.RecalculateSum(); // Calculate mean and errors double mean = _state.ActualSum / _actualBuffer.Count; double residual = actualVal - predictedVal; double totalDev = actualVal - mean; double sqResidual = residual * residual; double sqTotal = totalDev * totalDev; // Update squared residual buffer _sqResidualBuffer.UpdateNewest(sqResidual); _state.SqResidualSum = _sqResidualBuffer.RecalculateSum(); // Update squared total buffer _sqTotalBuffer.UpdateNewest(sqTotal); _state.SqTotalSum = _sqTotalBuffer.RecalculateSum(); } // R² = 1 - RSS/TSS double result = _state.SqTotalSum > 1e-10 ? 1.0 - (_state.SqResidualSum / _state.SqTotalSum) : 1.0; Last = new TValue(actual.Time, result); PubEvent(Last, isNew); return Last; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true) { return Update(new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, actual), new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, predicted), isNew); } public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true) { throw new NotSupportedException("R² requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted)."); } public override TSeries Update(TSeries source) { throw new NotSupportedException("R² requires two inputs. Use Calculate(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period)."); } public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null) { throw new NotSupportedException("R² requires two inputs."); } public override void Reset() { _actualBuffer.Clear(); _sqResidualBuffer.Clear(); _sqTotalBuffer.Clear(); _state = default; _p_state = default; Last = default; } public static TSeries Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); if (period <= 0) throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) return; const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; Span actualBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; Span sqResidualBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; Span sqTotalBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; double actualSum = 0; double sqResidualSum = 0; double sqTotalSum = 0; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } int bufferIndex = 0; int i = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (; i < warmupEnd; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) lastValidActual = act; else act = lastValidActual; if (double.IsFinite(pred)) lastValidPredicted = pred; else pred = lastValidPredicted; actualSum += act; actualBuffer[i] = act; double mean = actualSum / (i + 1); double residual = act - pred; double totalDev = act - mean; double sqResidual = residual * residual; double sqTotal = totalDev * totalDev; sqResidualSum += sqResidual; sqTotalSum += sqTotal; sqResidualBuffer[i] = sqResidual; sqTotalBuffer[i] = sqTotal; output[i] = sqTotalSum > 1e-10 ? 1.0 - (sqResidualSum / sqTotalSum) : 1.0; } int tickCount = 0; for (; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) lastValidActual = act; else act = lastValidActual; if (double.IsFinite(pred)) lastValidPredicted = pred; else pred = lastValidPredicted; actualSum = actualSum - actualBuffer[bufferIndex] + act; actualBuffer[bufferIndex] = act; double mean = actualSum / period; double residual = act - pred; double totalDev = act - mean; double sqResidual = residual * residual; double sqTotal = totalDev * totalDev; sqResidualSum = sqResidualSum - sqResidualBuffer[bufferIndex] + sqResidual; sqTotalSum = sqTotalSum - sqTotalBuffer[bufferIndex] + sqTotal; sqResidualBuffer[bufferIndex] = sqResidual; sqTotalBuffer[bufferIndex] = sqTotal; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) bufferIndex = 0; output[i] = sqTotalSum > 1e-10 ? 1.0 - (sqResidualSum / sqTotalSum) : 1.0; tickCount++; if (tickCount >= ResyncInterval) { tickCount = 0; double recalcActual = 0, recalcResidual = 0, recalcTotal = 0; for (int k = 0; k < period; k++) { recalcActual += actualBuffer[k]; recalcResidual += sqResidualBuffer[k]; recalcTotal += sqTotalBuffer[k]; } actualSum = recalcActual; sqResidualSum = recalcResidual; sqTotalSum = recalcTotal; } } } }