using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// QuantileLoss: Quantile Loss (Pinball Loss) /// /// /// Quantile Loss (also known as Pinball Loss) is used for quantile regression. /// It asymmetrically penalizes over- and under-predictions based on the quantile /// parameter. This is useful for generating prediction intervals. /// /// Formula: /// QuantileLoss = (1/n) * Σ max(q*(actual - predicted), (q-1)*(actual - predicted)) /// /// Which simplifies to: /// - If actual >= predicted: q * (actual - predicted) /// - If actual < predicted: (1-q) * (predicted - actual) /// /// Key properties: /// - Asymmetric penalty based on quantile parameter q /// - q = 0.5 gives MAE (median regression) /// - q > 0.5 penalizes under-prediction more heavily /// - q < 0.5 penalizes over-prediction more heavily /// - Used for prediction intervals (e.g., q=0.1 and q=0.9 for 80% interval) /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class QuantileLoss : AbstractBase { private readonly RingBuffer _lossBuffer; private readonly double _quantile; [StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)] private record struct State(double LossSum, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted, int TickCount); private State _state; private State _p_state; private const int ResyncInterval = 1000; public QuantileLoss(int period, double quantile = 0.5) { if (period <= 0) throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); if (quantile <= 0.0 || quantile >= 1.0) throw new ArgumentException("Quantile must be between 0 and 1 (exclusive)", nameof(quantile)); _lossBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _quantile = quantile; Name = $"QuantileLoss({period},{quantile:F2})"; WarmupPeriod = period; } public double Quantile => _quantile; public override bool IsHot => _lossBuffer.IsFull; [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true) { double actualVal = actual.Value; double predictedVal = predicted.Value; if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal)) actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0; else _state.LastValidActual = actualVal; if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal)) predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0; else _state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal; // Pinball loss: max(q*(y-p), (q-1)*(y-p)) double diff = actualVal - predictedVal; double loss = diff >= 0 ? _quantile * diff : (_quantile - 1.0) * diff; if (isNew) { _p_state = _state; double removedLoss = _lossBuffer.Count == _lossBuffer.Capacity ? _lossBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.LossSum = _state.LossSum - removedLoss + loss; _lossBuffer.Add(loss); _state.TickCount++; if (_lossBuffer.IsFull && _state.TickCount >= ResyncInterval) { _state.TickCount = 0; _state.LossSum = _lossBuffer.RecalculateSum(); } } else { _state = _p_state; double removedLoss = _lossBuffer.Count == _lossBuffer.Capacity ? _lossBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.LossSum = _state.LossSum - removedLoss + loss; _lossBuffer.UpdateNewest(loss); _state.LossSum = _lossBuffer.RecalculateSum(); } // QuantileLoss = (1/n) * Σ loss double result = _lossBuffer.Count > 0 ? _state.LossSum / _lossBuffer.Count : 0.0; Last = new TValue(actual.Time, result); PubEvent(Last, isNew); return Last; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true) { return Update(new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, actual), new TValue(DateTime.UtcNow, predicted), isNew); } public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true) { throw new NotSupportedException("QuantileLoss requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted)."); } public override TSeries Update(TSeries source) { throw new NotSupportedException("QuantileLoss requires two inputs. Use Calculate(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period, quantile)."); } public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null) { throw new NotSupportedException("QuantileLoss requires two inputs."); } public override void Reset() { _lossBuffer.Clear(); _state = default; _p_state = default; Last = default; } public static TSeries Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period, double quantile = 0.5) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period, quantile); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period, double quantile = 0.5) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); if (period <= 0) throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); if (quantile <= 0.0 || quantile >= 1.0) throw new ArgumentException("Quantile must be between 0 and 1 (exclusive)", nameof(quantile)); int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) return; const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; Span lossBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; double lossSum = 0; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } int bufferIndex = 0; int i = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (; i < warmupEnd; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) lastValidActual = act; else act = lastValidActual; if (double.IsFinite(pred)) lastValidPredicted = pred; else pred = lastValidPredicted; double diff = act - pred; double loss = diff >= 0 ? quantile * diff : (quantile - 1.0) * diff; lossSum += loss; lossBuffer[i] = loss; output[i] = lossSum / (i + 1); } int tickCount = 0; for (; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) lastValidActual = act; else act = lastValidActual; if (double.IsFinite(pred)) lastValidPredicted = pred; else pred = lastValidPredicted; double diff = act - pred; double loss = diff >= 0 ? quantile * diff : (quantile - 1.0) * diff; lossSum = lossSum - lossBuffer[bufferIndex] + loss; lossBuffer[bufferIndex] = loss; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) bufferIndex = 0; output[i] = lossSum / period; tickCount++; if (tickCount >= ResyncInterval) { tickCount = 0; double recalcSum = 0; for (int k = 0; k < period; k++) recalcSum += lossBuffer[k]; lossSum = recalcSum; } } } }