using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// RAE: Relative Absolute Error /// /// /// RAE measures the total absolute error relative to the total absolute error of /// a simple predictor (the mean). It provides a normalized measure that indicates /// how well the model performs compared to predicting the mean for all values. /// /// Formula: /// RAE = Σ|actual - predicted| / Σ|actual - mean(actual)| /// /// Key properties: /// - RAE < 1 means better than mean predictor /// - RAE = 1 means same as mean predictor /// - RAE > 1 means worse than mean predictor /// - Scale-independent ratio /// /// Uses Kahan compensated summation to prevent floating-point drift without periodic resync. /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class Rae : AbstractBase { private readonly RingBuffer _actualBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _absErrorBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _absBaselineBuffer; [StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)] private record struct State( double ActualSum, double AbsErrorSum, double AbsBaselineSum, double ActualComp, double AbsErrorComp, double AbsBaselineComp, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted); private State _state; private State _p_state; public Rae(int period) { if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } _actualBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _absErrorBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _absBaselineBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); Name = $"Rae({period})"; WarmupPeriod = period; } public override bool IsHot => _actualBuffer.IsFull; [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true) { double actualVal = actual.Value; double predictedVal = predicted.Value; // Snapshot BEFORE any mutations for correct rollback if (isNew) { _p_state = _state; } else { _state = _p_state; } // Sanitize non-finite values AFTER snapshot/restore if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal)) { actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidActual = actualVal; } if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal)) { predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal; } if (isNew) { // Update actual buffer for mean calculation — Kahan compensated double removedActual = _actualBuffer.Count == _actualBuffer.Capacity ? _actualBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = actualVal - removedActual; double y = delta - _state.ActualComp; double t = _state.ActualSum + y; _state.ActualComp = (t - _state.ActualSum) - y; _state.ActualSum = t; } _actualBuffer.Add(actualVal); // Calculate mean and baseline error double mean = _state.ActualSum / _actualBuffer.Count; double absError = Math.Abs(actualVal - predictedVal); double absBaseline = Math.Abs(actualVal - mean); // Update error buffer — Kahan compensated double removedError = _absErrorBuffer.Count == _absErrorBuffer.Capacity ? _absErrorBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = absError - removedError; double y = delta - _state.AbsErrorComp; double t = _state.AbsErrorSum + y; _state.AbsErrorComp = (t - _state.AbsErrorSum) - y; _state.AbsErrorSum = t; } _absErrorBuffer.Add(absError); // Update baseline buffer — Kahan compensated double removedBaseline = _absBaselineBuffer.Count == _absBaselineBuffer.Capacity ? _absBaselineBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = absBaseline - removedBaseline; double y = delta - _state.AbsBaselineComp; double t = _state.AbsBaselineSum + y; _state.AbsBaselineComp = (t - _state.AbsBaselineSum) - y; _state.AbsBaselineSum = t; } _absBaselineBuffer.Add(absBaseline); } else { // Update buffers and recalculate sums (buffer state is inconsistent with _p_state) _actualBuffer.UpdateNewest(actualVal); _state.ActualSum = _actualBuffer.RecalculateSum(); // Calculate mean and errors double mean = _state.ActualSum / _actualBuffer.Count; double absError = Math.Abs(actualVal - predictedVal); double absBaseline = Math.Abs(actualVal - mean); _absErrorBuffer.UpdateNewest(absError); _absBaselineBuffer.UpdateNewest(absBaseline); _state.AbsErrorSum = _absErrorBuffer.RecalculateSum(); _state.AbsBaselineSum = _absBaselineBuffer.RecalculateSum(); } double result = _state.AbsBaselineSum > 1e-10 ? _state.AbsErrorSum / _state.AbsBaselineSum : 1.0; Last = new TValue(actual.Time, result); PubEvent(Last, isNew); return Last; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true) { return Update(new TValue(DateTime.MinValue, actual), new TValue(DateTime.MinValue, predicted), isNew); } public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true) { throw new NotSupportedException("RAE requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted)."); } public override TSeries Update(TSeries source) { throw new NotSupportedException("RAE requires two inputs. Use Batch(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period)."); } public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null) { throw new NotSupportedException("RAE requires two inputs."); } public override void Reset() { _actualBuffer.Clear(); _absErrorBuffer.Clear(); _absBaselineBuffer.Clear(); _state = default; _p_state = default; Last = default; } public static TSeries Batch(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) { throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); } int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) { throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); } if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) { return; } const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; Span actualBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; Span absErrorBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; Span absBaselineBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; double actualSum = 0; double absErrorSum = 0; double absBaselineSum = 0; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } int bufferIndex = 0; int i = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (; i < warmupEnd; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } actualSum += act; actualBuffer[i] = act; double mean = actualSum / (i + 1); double absError = Math.Abs(act - pred); double absBaseline = Math.Abs(act - mean); absErrorSum += absError; absBaselineSum += absBaseline; absErrorBuffer[i] = absError; absBaselineBuffer[i] = absBaseline; output[i] = absBaselineSum > 1e-10 ? absErrorSum / absBaselineSum : 1.0; } for (; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } actualSum = actualSum - actualBuffer[bufferIndex] + act; actualBuffer[bufferIndex] = act; double mean = actualSum / period; double absError = Math.Abs(act - pred); double absBaseline = Math.Abs(act - mean); absErrorSum = absErrorSum - absErrorBuffer[bufferIndex] + absError; absBaselineSum = absBaselineSum - absBaselineBuffer[bufferIndex] + absBaseline; absErrorBuffer[bufferIndex] = absError; absBaselineBuffer[bufferIndex] = absBaseline; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) { bufferIndex = 0; } output[i] = absBaselineSum > 1e-10 ? absErrorSum / absBaselineSum : 1.0; } } public static (TSeries Results, Rae Indicator) Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { var indicator = new Rae(period); TSeries results = Batch(actual, predicted, period); return (results, indicator); } }