using System.Buffers;
using System.Runtime.CompilerServices;
using System.Runtime.InteropServices;
namespace QuanTAlib;
///
/// Hurst: Hurst Exponent via Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis.
///
///
/// Estimates the Hurst exponent H from a sliding window of log returns using
/// the classical R/S method with OLS log-log regression. H measures long-range
/// dependence: H > 0.5 indicates persistence (trending), H < 0.5 indicates
/// anti-persistence (mean-reverting), and H ≈ 0.5 indicates a random walk.
///
/// Algorithm: for each sub-period size n in [10, period/2], divide the window
/// into floor(period/n) non-overlapping blocks, compute the rescaled range R/S
/// for each block, average, then regress log(R/S) on log(n). The slope is H.
///
/// Complexity: O(period²) per update — sub-period iteration is unavoidable.
///
[SkipLocalsInit]
public sealed class Hurst : AbstractBase
{
private const int MinSubPeriod = 10;
private readonly int _period;
private readonly RingBuffer _buffer;
private double _prevPrice;
private double _prevPriceSaved;
private double _lastValidValue;
private bool _hasPrevPrice;
private bool _hasPrevPriceSaved;
private int _inputCount;
private int _inputCountSaved;
public override bool IsHot => _buffer.IsFull;
///
/// Creates a new Hurst Exponent indicator.
///
/// The lookback period for log returns (must be >= 20).
public Hurst(int period)
{
if (period < 20)
{
throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(period), "Period must be greater than or equal to 20 for Hurst Exponent.");
}
_period = period;
_buffer = new RingBuffer(period);
Name = $"Hurst({period})";
WarmupPeriod = period + 1;
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true)
{
double value = input.Value;
if (!double.IsFinite(value))
{
value = _lastValidValue;
}
else
{
_lastValidValue = value;
}
if (isNew)
{
_prevPriceSaved = _prevPrice;
_hasPrevPriceSaved = _hasPrevPrice;
_inputCountSaved = _inputCount;
}
else
{
_prevPrice = _prevPriceSaved;
_hasPrevPrice = _hasPrevPriceSaved;
_inputCount = _inputCountSaved;
}
double result;
if (!_hasPrevPrice)
{
_prevPrice = value;
_hasPrevPrice = true;
_inputCount = 1;
result = 0.5; // default — random walk assumption before data
}
else
{
double logReturn = (_prevPrice > 0 && value > 0)
? Math.Log(value / _prevPrice)
: 0.0;
if (isNew)
{
_buffer.Add(logReturn);
}
else
{
_buffer.UpdateNewest(logReturn);
}
_prevPrice = value;
_inputCount++;
result = ComputeHurst(_buffer.GetSpan());
}
Last = new TValue(input.Time, result);
PubEvent(Last, isNew);
return Last;
}
public override TSeries Update(TSeries source)
{
if (source.Count == 0)
{
return [];
}
int len = source.Count;
var t = new List(len);
var v = new List(len);
CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len);
CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len);
var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t);
var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v);
Batch(source.Values, vSpan, _period);
source.Times.CopyTo(tSpan);
// Reset running state before priming
_buffer.Clear();
_prevPrice = 0;
_hasPrevPrice = false;
_lastValidValue = 0;
_inputCount = 0;
// Prime the state: replay enough bars to reconstruct internal state
int primeStart = Math.Max(0, len - _period - 1);
for (int i = primeStart; i < len; i++)
{
Update(source[i]);
}
return new TSeries(t, v);
}
public override void Reset()
{
_buffer.Clear();
_prevPrice = 0;
_prevPriceSaved = 0;
_hasPrevPrice = false;
_hasPrevPriceSaved = false;
_lastValidValue = 0;
_inputCount = 0;
_inputCountSaved = 0;
Last = default;
}
public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null)
{
DateTime ts = DateTime.MinValue;
foreach (double value in source)
{
Update(new TValue(ts, value));
if (step.HasValue)
{
ts = ts.Add(step.Value);
}
}
}
public static TSeries Batch(TSeries source, int period)
{
var hurst = new Hurst(period);
return hurst.Update(source);
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan source, Span output, int period)
{
if (source.Length != output.Length)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Source and output must have the same length", nameof(output));
}
if (period < 20)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than or equal to 20", nameof(period));
}
int len = source.Length;
if (len == 0)
{
return;
}
CalculateScalarCore(source, output, period);
}
public static (TSeries Results, Hurst Indicator) Calculate(TSeries source, int period)
{
var indicator = new Hurst(period);
TSeries results = indicator.Update(source);
return (results, indicator);
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
private static void CalculateScalarCore(ReadOnlySpan source, Span output, int period)
{
int len = source.Length;
const int StackallocThreshold = 256;
// Buffer for log returns within the window
double[]? rentedLr = null;
scoped Span lrBuf;
if (period <= StackallocThreshold)
{
lrBuf = stackalloc double[period];
}
else
{
rentedLr = ArrayPool.Shared.Rent(period);
lrBuf = rentedLr.AsSpan(0, period);
}
try
{
for (int i = 0; i < len; i++)
{
if (i == 0)
{
output[i] = 0.5; // No log return possible yet
continue;
}
// Compute log returns for the available window
int windowStart = Math.Max(1, i - period + 1);
int windowLen = i - windowStart + 1;
double prevValid = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < windowLen; j++)
{
int srcIdx = windowStart + j;
double cur = source[srcIdx];
double prev = source[srcIdx - 1];
if (!double.IsFinite(cur)) { cur = prevValid; }
else { prevValid = cur; }
double prevP = prev;
if (!double.IsFinite(prevP)) { prevP = prevValid; }
lrBuf[j] = (prevP > 0 && cur > 0) ? Math.Log(cur / prevP) : 0.0;
}
output[i] = ComputeHurst(lrBuf[..windowLen]);
}
}
finally
{
if (rentedLr is not null)
{
ArrayPool.Shared.Return(rentedLr);
}
}
}
///
/// Computes the Hurst exponent from a span of log returns using R/S analysis.
///
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
private static double ComputeHurst(ReadOnlySpan logReturns)
{
int length = logReturns.Length;
int maxN = length / 2;
if (maxN < MinSubPeriod)
{
return 0.5; // Not enough data for R/S analysis
}
// Collect log(n) and log(R/S) pairs for OLS regression
// Max possible pairs: maxN - MinSubPeriod + 1
int maxPairs = maxN - MinSubPeriod + 1;
const int StackallocThreshold = 256;
double[]? rentedLogN = null;
double[]? rentedLogRS = null;
scoped Span logNValues;
scoped Span logRSValues;
if (maxPairs <= StackallocThreshold)
{
logNValues = stackalloc double[maxPairs];
logRSValues = stackalloc double[maxPairs];
}
else
{
rentedLogN = ArrayPool.Shared.Rent(maxPairs);
rentedLogRS = ArrayPool.Shared.Rent(maxPairs);
logNValues = rentedLogN.AsSpan(0, maxPairs);
logRSValues = rentedLogRS.AsSpan(0, maxPairs);
}
try
{
int pairCount = 0;
for (int n = MinSubPeriod; n <= maxN; n++)
{
int numSubPeriods = length / n;
if (numSubPeriods == 0) { continue; }
double rsSum = 0.0;
int validSubPeriods = 0;
for (int sp = 0; sp < numSubPeriods; sp++)
{
int startIndex = sp * n;
// Compute mean of sub-period
double subSum = 0.0;
for (int j = 0; j < n; j++)
{
subSum += logReturns[startIndex + j];
}
double subMean = subSum / n;
// Compute cumulative deviations and std dev
double currentSum = 0.0;
double varianceSum = 0.0;
double cumMin = double.MaxValue;
double cumMax = double.MinValue;
for (int j = 0; j < n; j++)
{
double deviation = logReturns[startIndex + j] - subMean;
currentSum += deviation;
varianceSum += deviation * deviation;
if (currentSum < cumMin) { cumMin = currentSum; }
if (currentSum > cumMax) { cumMax = currentSum; }
}
double rangeVal = cumMax - cumMin;
double stdDev = Math.Sqrt(varianceSum / n);
if (stdDev > 1e-15)
{
rsSum += rangeVal / stdDev;
validSubPeriods++;
}
}
if (validSubPeriods > 0)
{
double avgRS = rsSum / validSubPeriods;
if (avgRS > 0)
{
logNValues[pairCount] = Math.Log(n);
logRSValues[pairCount] = Math.Log(avgRS);
pairCount++;
}
}
}
if (pairCount < 2)
{
return 0.5; // Insufficient data points for regression
}
// OLS linear regression: slope of log(R/S) vs log(n)
return OlsSlope(logNValues[..pairCount], logRSValues[..pairCount]);
}
finally
{
if (rentedLogN is not null) { ArrayPool.Shared.Return(rentedLogN); }
if (rentedLogRS is not null) { ArrayPool.Shared.Return(rentedLogRS); }
}
}
///
/// Computes the OLS slope: β = (m·Σxy - Σx·Σy) / (m·Σx² - (Σx)²)
///
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
private static double OlsSlope(ReadOnlySpan x, ReadOnlySpan y)
{
int m = x.Length;
double sumX = 0, sumY = 0, sumXY = 0, sumXSq = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < m; i++)
{
double xi = x[i];
double yi = y[i];
sumX += xi;
sumY += yi;
sumXY += xi * yi;
sumXSq += xi * xi;
}
double denominator = Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(m, sumXSq, -(sumX * sumX));
if (Math.Abs(denominator) < 1e-15)
{
return 0.5; // Degenerate — return random walk
}
return Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(m, sumXY, -(sumX * sumY)) / denominator;
}
}