using Xunit; namespace QuanTAlib.Tests; /// /// Poissondist validation tests — validates CDF against exact mathematical properties /// and MathNet.Numerics reference values. StaticCdf calls bypass windowing so results /// are exact. Streaming/batch tests verify invariants that hold regardless of window state. /// public class PoissondistValidationTests { private const double Tolerance = 1e-9; private const double LooseTolerance = 1e-6; // ─── Known CDF values ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── // P(X <= k; λ) = e^(-λ) * Σ[j=0 to k] (λ^j / j!) [Theory] // P(X<=0; λ=1) = e^(-1) ≈ 0.36787944117144233 [InlineData(0, 1.0, 0.36787944117144233)] // P(X<=1; λ=1) = e^(-1) + e^(-1) = 2e^(-1) ≈ 0.73575888234288467 [InlineData(1, 1.0, 0.73575888234288467)] // P(X<=2; λ=1) = e^(-1)(1 + 1 + 0.5) = 2.5e^(-1) ≈ 0.91969860292860584 [InlineData(2, 1.0, 0.91969860292860584)] // P(X<=0; λ=0.5) = e^(-0.5) ≈ 0.60653065971263342 [InlineData(0, 0.5, 0.60653065971263342)] // P(X<=0; λ=2) = e^(-2) ≈ 0.13533528323661270 [InlineData(0, 2.0, 0.13533528323661270)] // P(X<=5; λ=5) = known value from tables ≈ 0.61596065 [InlineData(5, 5.0, 0.61596065)] // P(X<=10; λ=5) ≈ 0.9863047314 (should be high for k >> lambda) [InlineData(10, 5.0, 0.9863047314)] public void StaticCdf_KnownValues(int k, double lambda, double expected) { double actual = Poissondist.StaticCdf(k, lambda); Assert.True(Math.Abs(actual - expected) < LooseTolerance, $"k={k}, λ={lambda}: expected {expected:G10}, got {actual:G10}"); } // ─── Exact boundary values ──────────────────────────────────────────────── [Fact] public void StaticCdf_K0_Lambda1_ExactEMinusOne() { // P(X=0; λ=1) = e^(-1) exactly double expected = Math.Exp(-1.0); double actual = Poissondist.StaticCdf(0, 1.0); Assert.Equal(expected, actual, Tolerance); } [Fact] public void StaticCdf_K1_Lambda1_Exact2EMinusOne() { // P(X<=1; λ=1) = e^(-1) + e^(-1) = 2e^(-1) double expected = 2.0 * Math.Exp(-1.0); double actual = Poissondist.StaticCdf(1, 1.0); Assert.Equal(expected, actual, Tolerance); } [Fact] public void StaticCdf_K2_Lambda1_Exact2Point5EMinusOne() { // P(X<=2; λ=1) = e^(-1)(1 + 1 + 1/2) = 2.5e^(-1) double expected = 2.5 * Math.Exp(-1.0); double actual = Poissondist.StaticCdf(2, 1.0); Assert.Equal(expected, actual, Tolerance); } [Fact] public void StaticCdf_KNegative_ReturnsZero() { Assert.Equal(0.0, Poissondist.StaticCdf(-1, 1.0), Tolerance); Assert.Equal(0.0, Poissondist.StaticCdf(-10, 5.0), Tolerance); } [Fact] public void StaticCdf_LambdaZero_ReturnsOne() { // λ=0: degenerate case, all mass at X=0, P(X<=k) = 1 for k>=0 Assert.Equal(1.0, Poissondist.StaticCdf(0, 0.0), Tolerance); Assert.Equal(1.0, Poissondist.StaticCdf(5, 0.0), Tolerance); } [Fact] public void StaticCdf_VeryLargeK_NearOne() { // For large k >> lambda, CDF → 1 double cdf = Poissondist.StaticCdf(100, 1.0); Assert.True(Math.Abs(cdf - 1.0) < 1e-12, $"CDF(100, 1.0) should be ≈ 1.0, got {cdf}"); } // ─── Monotonicity ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────── [Theory] [InlineData(1.0)] [InlineData(5.0)] [InlineData(10.0)] [InlineData(0.5)] public void StaticCdf_Monotonic_InK(double lambda) { // CDF must be non-decreasing in k double prev = 0.0; for (int k = 0; k <= 20; k++) { double cdf = Poissondist.StaticCdf(k, lambda); Assert.True(cdf >= prev - 1e-12, $"CDF not monotonic at k={k}, λ={lambda}: got {cdf}, prev={prev}"); prev = cdf; } } // ─── Output bounds ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────── [Fact] public void StaticCdf_OutputAlwaysInZeroOne() { double[] lambdas = { 0.1, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0, 20.0, 50.0 }; int[] ks = { 0, 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 }; foreach (double lambda in lambdas) { foreach (int k in ks) { double cdf = Poissondist.StaticCdf(k, lambda); Assert.True(cdf >= 0.0 && cdf <= 1.0, $"CDF({k}, {lambda}) = {cdf} out of [0,1]"); } } } [Fact] public void Streaming_OutputAlwaysBounded() { int count = 200; var gbm = new GBM(startPrice: 100, mu: 0.05, sigma: 0.3, seed: 72001); var bars = gbm.Fetch(count, DateTime.UtcNow.Ticks, TimeSpan.FromMinutes(1)); var indicator = new Poissondist(lambda: 5.0, period: 20, threshold: 5); for (int i = 0; i < count; i++) { indicator.Update(bars.Close[i]); double v = indicator.Last.Value; Assert.True(v >= 0.0 && v <= 1.0, $"Output {v} at bar {i} out of [0,1]"); } } // ─── MathNet.Numerics cross-validation ────────────────────────────────── [Theory] [InlineData(0, 1.0)] [InlineData(1, 1.0)] [InlineData(2, 1.0)] [InlineData(3, 1.0)] [InlineData(0, 5.0)] [InlineData(3, 5.0)] [InlineData(5, 5.0)] [InlineData(10, 5.0)] [InlineData(0, 10.0)] [InlineData(8, 10.0)] [InlineData(10, 10.0)] [InlineData(15, 10.0)] public void StaticCdf_VsMathNet(int k, double lambda) { var dist = new MathNet.Numerics.Distributions.Poisson(lambda); double expected = dist.CumulativeDistribution(k); double actual = Poissondist.StaticCdf(k, lambda); Assert.True(Math.Abs(actual - expected) < Tolerance, $"k={k}, λ={lambda}: MathNet={expected:G12}, QuanTAlib={actual:G12}, diff={Math.Abs(actual - expected):G4}"); } // ─── PMF derivation ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── [Fact] public void StaticCdf_PmfDerived_Lambda1() { // PMF(0; 1) = e^(-1) ≈ 0.36788 // PMF(1; 1) = e^(-1) ≈ 0.36788 // PMF(2; 1) = 0.5*e^(-1) ≈ 0.18394 double pmf0 = Poissondist.StaticCdf(0, 1.0); double pmf1 = Poissondist.StaticCdf(1, 1.0) - Poissondist.StaticCdf(0, 1.0); double pmf2 = Poissondist.StaticCdf(2, 1.0) - Poissondist.StaticCdf(1, 1.0); Assert.Equal(Math.Exp(-1.0), pmf0, Tolerance); Assert.Equal(Math.Exp(-1.0), pmf1, Tolerance); Assert.Equal(0.5 * Math.Exp(-1.0), pmf2, Tolerance); } [Fact] public void StaticCdf_PmfSumsToOne_Lambda5() { // Sum of PMF(k; 5) for k=0..50 should be ≈ 1 double sum = 0.0; double prev = 0.0; for (int k = 0; k <= 50; k++) { double cdf = Poissondist.StaticCdf(k, 5.0); sum += cdf - prev; prev = cdf; } // Highest PMF k values will be missing but should be negligible at k=50 for λ=5 Assert.True(Math.Abs(sum - 1.0) < 1e-10, $"PMF sum {sum} deviates from 1.0 by {Math.Abs(sum - 1.0):G4}"); } // ─── Flat range → neutral CDF ───────────────────────────────────────────── [Fact] public void Streaming_FlatRange_ReturnsNeutralCdf() { // Flat range → x=0.5, λ = lambdaScale*0.5 = 5.0*0.5 = 2.5 double expectedLambda = 2.5; double expectedCdf = Poissondist.StaticCdf(5, expectedLambda); var ind = new Poissondist(lambda: 5.0, period: 10, threshold: 5); var time = DateTime.UtcNow; for (int i = 0; i < 10; i++) { ind.Update(new TValue(time.AddSeconds(i), 100.0)); } Assert.Equal(expectedCdf, ind.Last.Value, LooseTolerance); } // ─── Span batch consistency ─────────────────────────────────────────────── [Fact] public void Batch_Span_MatchesTSeries() { int count = 150; var gbm = new GBM(startPrice: 100, mu: 0.05, sigma: 0.25, seed: 72002); var bars = gbm.Fetch(count, DateTime.UtcNow.Ticks, TimeSpan.FromMinutes(1)); double[] rawValues = new double[count]; for (int i = 0; i < count; i++) { rawValues[i] = bars.Close[i].Value; } var tseriesResult = Poissondist.Batch(bars.Close, lambda: 5.0, period: 30, threshold: 5); double[] spanResult = new double[count]; Poissondist.Batch(rawValues, spanResult, lambda: 5.0, period: 30, threshold: 5); for (int i = 0; i < count; i++) { Assert.Equal(tseriesResult[i].Value, spanResult[i], Tolerance); } } // ─── Large lambda stability ──────────────────────────────────────────────── [Fact] public void StaticCdf_LargeLambda_Stable() { // λ=100, k=100: CDF should be ≈ 0.51 (slightly above median for Poisson) double cdf = Poissondist.StaticCdf(100, 100.0); Assert.True(double.IsFinite(cdf) && cdf >= 0.0 && cdf <= 1.0, $"Large λ CDF invalid: {cdf}"); Assert.True(cdf > 0.4 && cdf < 0.65, $"CDF={cdf:G4} expected near 0.51 for k=λ=100"); } [Fact] public void Streaming_LargeDataset_Stable() { int count = 2000; var gbm = new GBM(startPrice: 100, mu: 0.05, sigma: 0.2, seed: 72003); var bars = gbm.Fetch(count, DateTime.UtcNow.Ticks, TimeSpan.FromMinutes(1)); var indicator = new Poissondist(lambda: 10.0, period: 50, threshold: 10); for (int i = 0; i < count; i++) { indicator.Update(bars.Close[i]); double v = indicator.Last.Value; Assert.True(double.IsFinite(v) && v >= 0.0 && v <= 1.0, $"Invalid output {v} at bar {i}"); } } // ─── Different parameter combos all produce output in range ────────────── [Theory] [InlineData(0.5, 5, 2)] [InlineData(1.0, 14, 5)] [InlineData(5.0, 50, 5)] [InlineData(10.0, 100, 10)] [InlineData(0.1, 30, 0)] public void Streaming_ParameterCombos_OutputBounded(double lambda, int period, int threshold) { int count = period + 50; var gbm = new GBM(startPrice: 100, mu: 0.05, sigma: 0.2, seed: 72004 + period); var bars = gbm.Fetch(count, DateTime.UtcNow.Ticks, TimeSpan.FromMinutes(1)); var indicator = new Poissondist(lambda, period, threshold); for (int i = 0; i < count; i++) { indicator.Update(bars.Close[i]); double v = indicator.Last.Value; Assert.True(v >= 0.0 && v <= 1.0, $"λ={lambda}, period={period}, k={threshold}: output {v} out of [0,1]"); } } // ─── Streaming convergence ──────────────────────────────────────────────── [Fact] public void Streaming_HighPeriod_StillConverges() { int period = 200; var indicator = new Poissondist(lambda: 5.0, period: period, threshold: 5); var gbm = new GBM(startPrice: 100, mu: 0.05, sigma: 0.3, seed: 72005); var bars = gbm.Fetch(period + 50, DateTime.UtcNow.Ticks, TimeSpan.FromMinutes(1)); for (int i = 0; i < bars.Close.Count; i++) { indicator.Update(bars.Close[i]); Assert.True(double.IsFinite(indicator.Last.Value), $"Non-finite output at bar {i}"); } } // ─── Poisson-Gamma identity verification ───────────────────────────────── [Theory] [InlineData(3, 2.0)] [InlineData(5, 5.0)] [InlineData(0, 1.0)] [InlineData(10, 3.0)] public void PoissonCdf_MatchesGammaIdentity(int k, double lambda) { // P(X<=k; λ) = 1 - RegIncGamma(k+1, λ) double fromPoisson = Poissondist.StaticCdf(k, lambda); double lnG = Poissondist.LnGamma(k + 1.0); double fromGamma = 1.0 - Poissondist.RegularizedIncompleteGamma(k + 1.0, lambda, lnG); Assert.Equal(fromPoisson, fromGamma, Tolerance); } }