// POISSONDIST: Poisson Distribution CDF
// Applies P(X ≤ k) = 1 - RegularizedLowerIncompleteGamma(k+1, λ) to a min-max
// normalized price series over a rolling lookback window.
// Pipeline: MinMax normalization → λ = xNorm * lambdaScale → Poisson-gamma identity → CDF.
using System.Runtime.CompilerServices;
using System.Runtime.InteropServices;
namespace QuanTAlib;
///
/// POISSONDIST: Poisson Distribution CDF
/// Computes P(X ≤ k; λ) — the Poisson cumulative distribution function — where λ is
/// derived from the min-max normalized price series over a rolling lookback window.
///
///
/// Key properties:
/// - Output always in [0, 1]
/// - Rolling window tracks min/max for normalization; flat range returns CDF at λ=lambdaScale*0.5
/// - Uses identity: P(X ≤ k) = 1 - P(k+1, λ) where P(a,x) is regularized lower incomplete gamma
/// - λ ≤ 0: returns 1.0 (degenerate; all probability mass at X=0)
/// - Series expansion for λ < k+2; Lentz continued fraction otherwise
/// - Lanczos log-gamma (g=7, 9 coefficients) for numerical accuracy to 1e-15
/// - NaN/Infinity inputs use last-valid-value substitution
///
[SkipLocalsInit]
public sealed class Poissondist : AbstractBase
{
private readonly int _period;
private readonly double _lambdaScale;
private readonly int _threshold;
private readonly RingBuffer _buffer;
// Lanczos g=7, 9 coefficients (Numerical Recipes 3rd Ed., Table 6.1)
private static ReadOnlySpan LanczosCoeff =>
[
0.99999999999980993,
676.5203681218851,
-1259.1392167224028,
771.32342877765313,
-176.61502916214059,
12.507343278686905,
-0.13857109526572012,
9.9843695780195716e-6,
1.5056327351493116e-7
];
[StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)]
private record struct State(double LastValid);
private State _state, _p_state;
public override bool IsHot => _buffer.Count >= _period;
///
/// Initializes a new Poissondist indicator.
///
/// Rate parameter λ > 0 (default 1.0). Scales normalized price to event rate.
/// Lookback window for min-max normalization (default 14)
/// Integer threshold k ≥ 0; computes P(X ≤ k) (default 5)
public Poissondist(double lambda = 1.0, int period = 14, int threshold = 5)
{
if (lambda <= 0.0)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Lambda must be > 0", nameof(lambda));
}
if (period < 2)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Period must be >= 2", nameof(period));
}
if (threshold < 0)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Threshold must be >= 0", nameof(threshold));
}
_lambdaScale = lambda;
_threshold = threshold;
_period = period;
_buffer = new RingBuffer(period);
Name = $"Poissondist({lambda:F2},{period},{threshold})";
WarmupPeriod = period;
_state = new State(PoissonCdf(_threshold, _lambdaScale * 0.5));
_p_state = _state;
}
///
/// Initializes a new Poissondist indicator with source for event-based chaining.
///
/// Source indicator for chaining
/// Rate parameter λ > 0 (default 1.0)
/// Lookback window (default 14)
/// Integer threshold k ≥ 0 (default 5)
public Poissondist(ITValuePublisher source, double lambda = 1.0, int period = 14, int threshold = 5)
: this(lambda, period, threshold)
{
source.Pub += HandleUpdate;
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
private void HandleUpdate(object? sender, in TValueEventArgs e) => Update(e.Value, e.IsNew);
///
/// Lanczos log-gamma approximation (g=7, 9 coefficients).
/// Accurate to ~15 digits for z > 0.5; uses reflection formula for z < 0.5.
///
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
internal static double LnGamma(double z)
{
if (z < 0.5)
{
return Math.Log(Math.PI / Math.Sin(Math.PI * z)) - LnGamma(1.0 - z);
}
z -= 1.0;
ReadOnlySpan c = LanczosCoeff;
double x = c[0];
for (int i = 1; i < 9; i++)
{
x += c[i] / (z + i);
}
double t = z + 7.5;
return Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(z + 0.5, Math.Log(t), 0.5 * Math.Log(2.0 * Math.PI) - t + Math.Log(x));
}
///
/// Series expansion for regularized lower incomplete gamma P(a, x).
/// Converges for x < a + 1.
///
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
private static double GammaSeries(double a, double x, double lnGammaA)
{
const int MaxIter = 200;
const double Eps = 1e-12;
double ap = a;
double sum = 1.0 / a;
double del = 1.0 / a;
for (int n = 0; n < MaxIter; n++)
{
ap += 1.0;
del *= x / ap;
sum += del;
if (Math.Abs(del) < Math.Abs(sum) * Eps)
{
break;
}
}
return sum * Math.Exp(-x + a * Math.Log(x) - lnGammaA);
}
///
/// Lentz continued fraction for regularized upper incomplete gamma Q(a, x) = 1 - P(a, x).
/// Converges for x ≥ a + 1.
///
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
private static double GammaCF(double a, double x, double lnGammaA)
{
const int MaxIter = 200;
const double Eps = 1e-12;
const double FpMin = 1e-300;
double b = x + 1.0 - a;
double c = 1.0 / FpMin;
double d = 1.0 / b;
double h = d;
for (int i = 1; i <= MaxIter; i++)
{
double an = -(double)i * (i - a);
b += 2.0;
d = Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(an, d, b);
if (Math.Abs(d) < FpMin)
{
d = FpMin;
}
c = b + an / c;
if (Math.Abs(c) < FpMin)
{
c = FpMin;
}
d = 1.0 / d;
double del = d * c;
h *= del;
if (Math.Abs(del - 1.0) < Eps)
{
break;
}
}
return Math.Exp(-x + a * Math.Log(x) - lnGammaA) * h;
}
///
/// Regularized lower incomplete gamma function P(a, x) = γ(a,x)/Γ(a).
/// Uses series for x < a+1; complement of CF for x ≥ a+1.
///
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
internal static double RegularizedIncompleteGamma(double a, double x, double lnGammaA)
{
if (x <= 0.0)
{
return 0.0;
}
if (x < a + 1.0)
{
return GammaSeries(a, x, lnGammaA);
}
return 1.0 - GammaCF(a, x, lnGammaA);
}
///
/// Poisson CDF: P(X ≤ k; λ) = 1 - P(k+1, λ) using the gamma-Poisson identity.
/// Returns 1.0 for λ ≤ 0 (degenerate: all mass at X=0).
/// Returns 0.0 for k < 0.
///
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public static double PoissonCdf(int k, double lambda)
{
if (k < 0)
{
return 0.0;
}
if (lambda <= 0.0)
{
return 1.0;
}
double a = k + 1.0;
double lnGammaA = LnGamma(a);
return 1.0 - RegularizedIncompleteGamma(a, lambda, lnGammaA);
}
///
/// Exposes the Poisson CDF directly for testing and downstream consumers.
/// Identical to .
///
public static double StaticCdf(int k, double lambda) => PoissonCdf(k, lambda);
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
private static (double min, double max) FindMinMax(ReadOnlySpan values)
{
if (values.Length == 0)
{
return (double.MaxValue, double.MinValue);
}
double min = values[0];
double max = values[0];
for (int i = 1; i < values.Length; i++)
{
double v = values[i];
if (v < min)
{
min = v;
}
if (v > max)
{
max = v;
}
}
return (min, max);
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true)
{
if (isNew)
{
_p_state = _state;
}
else
{
_state = _p_state;
}
double value = input.Value;
double result;
if (double.IsFinite(value))
{
_buffer.Add(value, isNew);
var (min, max) = FindMinMax(_buffer.GetSpan());
double range = max - min;
// Flat range → neutral x=0.5; map [0,1] → [0, lambdaScale]
double xNorm = range > 0.0 ? (value - min) / range : 0.5;
double lambda = xNorm * _lambdaScale;
result = PoissonCdf(_threshold, lambda);
_state = new State(result);
}
else
{
result = _state.LastValid;
}
Last = new TValue(input.Time, result);
PubEvent(Last, isNew);
return Last;
}
public override TSeries Update(TSeries source)
{
var result = new TSeries(source.Count);
ReadOnlySpan values = source.Values;
ReadOnlySpan times = source.Times;
for (int i = 0; i < source.Count; i++)
{
var tv = Update(new TValue(new DateTime(times[i], DateTimeKind.Utc), values[i]), true);
result.Add(tv, true);
}
return result;
}
public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null)
{
TimeSpan interval = step ?? TimeSpan.FromSeconds(1);
DateTime time = DateTime.UtcNow - (interval * source.Length);
for (int i = 0; i < source.Length; i++)
{
Update(new TValue(time, source[i]), true);
time += interval;
}
}
public static TSeries Batch(TSeries source, double lambda = 1.0, int period = 14, int threshold = 5)
{
var indicator = new Poissondist(lambda, period, threshold);
return indicator.Update(source);
}
///
/// Calculates Poisson Distribution CDF over a span of values.
/// Uses a sliding window min-max normalization identical to the streaming path.
///
public static void Batch(
ReadOnlySpan source, Span output,
double lambda = 1.0, int period = 14, int threshold = 5)
{
if (source.Length == 0)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Source cannot be empty", nameof(source));
}
if (output.Length < source.Length)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Output length must be >= source length", nameof(output));
}
if (lambda <= 0.0)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Lambda must be > 0", nameof(lambda));
}
if (period < 2)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Period must be >= 2", nameof(period));
}
if (threshold < 0)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Threshold must be >= 0", nameof(threshold));
}
double lastValid = PoissonCdf(threshold, lambda * 0.5);
for (int i = 0; i < source.Length; i++)
{
double val = source[i];
if (!double.IsFinite(val))
{
output[i] = lastValid;
continue;
}
int start = Math.Max(0, i - period + 1);
double min = double.PositiveInfinity;
double max = double.NegativeInfinity;
for (int j = start; j <= i; j++)
{
double v = source[j];
if (double.IsFinite(v))
{
if (v < min)
{
min = v;
}
if (v > max)
{
max = v;
}
}
}
if (!double.IsFinite(min) || !double.IsFinite(max))
{
output[i] = lastValid;
continue;
}
double range = max - min;
double xNorm = range > 0.0 ? (val - min) / range : 0.5;
double lam = xNorm * lambda;
double result = PoissonCdf(threshold, lam);
lastValid = result;
output[i] = result;
}
}
public static (TSeries Results, Poissondist Indicator) Calculate(
TSeries source, double lambda = 1.0, int period = 14, int threshold = 5)
{
var indicator = new Poissondist(lambda, period, threshold);
TSeries results = indicator.Update(source);
return (results, indicator);
}
public override void Reset()
{
_buffer.Clear();
_state = new State(PoissonCdf(_threshold, _lambdaScale * 0.5));
_p_state = _state;
Last = default;
}
}