using System.Buffers; using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// WMAPE: Weighted Mean Absolute Percentage Error /// /// /// WMAPE weights errors by the magnitude of actual values, making it more /// suitable for intermittent demand forecasting where some periods have /// zero or very low values. /// /// Formula: /// WMAPE = (Σ|actual - predicted| / Σ|actual|) * 100 /// /// Key properties: /// - Scale-independent (expressed as percentage) /// - Weights larger actual values more heavily /// - More stable than MAPE for intermittent data /// - Industry standard for demand forecasting /// /// Uses Kahan compensated summation to prevent floating-point drift without periodic resync. /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class Wmape : AbstractBase { private readonly RingBuffer _absErrorBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _absActualBuffer; [StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)] private record struct State(double AbsErrorSum, double AbsActualSum, double AbsErrorComp, double AbsActualComp, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted); private State _state; private State _p_state; private const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; public Wmape(int period) { if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } _absErrorBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _absActualBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); Name = $"Wmape({period})"; WarmupPeriod = period; } public override bool IsHot => _absErrorBuffer.IsFull; [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true) { double actualVal = actual.Value; double predictedVal = predicted.Value; // Snapshot BEFORE any mutations for correct rollback if (isNew) { _p_state = _state; } else { _state = _p_state; } if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal)) { actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidActual = actualVal; } if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal)) { predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal; } double absError = Math.Abs(actualVal - predictedVal); double absActual = Math.Abs(actualVal); if (isNew) { double removedError = _absErrorBuffer.Count == _absErrorBuffer.Capacity ? _absErrorBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = absError - removedError; double y = delta - _state.AbsErrorComp; double t = _state.AbsErrorSum + y; _state.AbsErrorComp = (t - _state.AbsErrorSum) - y; _state.AbsErrorSum = t; } _absErrorBuffer.Add(absError); double removedActual = _absActualBuffer.Count == _absActualBuffer.Capacity ? _absActualBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = absActual - removedActual; double y = delta - _state.AbsActualComp; double t = _state.AbsActualSum + y; _state.AbsActualComp = (t - _state.AbsActualSum) - y; _state.AbsActualSum = t; } _absActualBuffer.Add(absActual); } else { // Bar correction: update buffer and recalculate sums _absErrorBuffer.UpdateNewest(absError); _absActualBuffer.UpdateNewest(absActual); _state.AbsErrorSum = _absErrorBuffer.RecalculateSum(); _state.AbsActualSum = _absActualBuffer.RecalculateSum(); } // WMAPE = (Σ|error| / Σ|actual|) * 100 double result = _state.AbsActualSum > 1e-10 ? (_state.AbsErrorSum / _state.AbsActualSum) * 100.0 : 0.0; Last = new TValue(actual.Time, result); PubEvent(Last, isNew); return Last; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true) { return Update(new TValue(DateTime.MinValue, actual), new TValue(DateTime.MinValue, predicted), isNew); } public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true) { throw new NotSupportedException("WMAPE requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted)."); } public override TSeries Update(TSeries source) { throw new NotSupportedException("WMAPE requires two inputs. Use Batch(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period)."); } public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null) { throw new NotSupportedException("WMAPE requires two inputs."); } public override void Reset() { _absErrorBuffer.Clear(); _absActualBuffer.Clear(); _state = default; _p_state = default; Last = default; } public static TSeries Batch(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) { throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); } int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) { throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); } if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) { return; } // Use stackalloc for small periods, ArrayPool for larger scoped Span absErrorBuffer; scoped Span absActualBuffer; double[]? rentedError = null; double[]? rentedActual = null; if (period <= StackAllocThreshold) { absErrorBuffer = stackalloc double[period]; absActualBuffer = stackalloc double[period]; } else { rentedError = ArrayPool.Shared.Rent(period); rentedActual = ArrayPool.Shared.Rent(period); absErrorBuffer = rentedError.AsSpan(0, period); absActualBuffer = rentedActual.AsSpan(0, period); } try { double absErrorSum = 0; double absActualSum = 0; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } int bufferIndex = 0; int i = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (; i < warmupEnd; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } double absError = Math.Abs(act - pred); double absActual = Math.Abs(act); absErrorSum += absError; absActualSum += absActual; absErrorBuffer[i] = absError; absActualBuffer[i] = absActual; output[i] = absActualSum > 1e-10 ? (absErrorSum / absActualSum) * 100.0 : 0.0; } for (; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } double absError = Math.Abs(act - pred); double absActual = Math.Abs(act); absErrorSum = absErrorSum - absErrorBuffer[bufferIndex] + absError; absActualSum = absActualSum - absActualBuffer[bufferIndex] + absActual; absErrorBuffer[bufferIndex] = absError; absActualBuffer[bufferIndex] = absActual; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) { bufferIndex = 0; } output[i] = absActualSum > 1e-10 ? (absErrorSum / absActualSum) * 100.0 : 0.0; } } finally { if (rentedError != null) { ArrayPool.Shared.Return(rentedError); } if (rentedActual != null) { ArrayPool.Shared.Return(rentedActual); } } } public static (TSeries Results, Wmape Indicator) Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { var indicator = new Wmape(period); TSeries results = Batch(actual, predicted, period); return (results, indicator); } }