using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// TheilU: Theil's U Statistic (U1) /// /// /// Theil's U is a relative measure of forecasting accuracy that normalizes /// the RMSE by the sum of squared actual and predicted values. Values range /// from 0 (perfect forecast) to 1 (naive forecast), with values above 1 /// indicating the forecast is worse than simply predicting no change. /// /// Formula: /// U = √(Σ(predicted - actual)²) / √(Σactual² + Σpredicted²) /// /// Key properties: /// - Scale-independent (bounded 0-1 for reasonable forecasts) /// - U = 0: Perfect forecast /// - U = 1: Forecast as good as naive (no-change) forecast /// - U > 1: Forecast worse than naive forecast /// - Useful for comparing forecasting methods /// /// Uses Kahan compensated summation to prevent floating-point drift without periodic resync. /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class TheilU : AbstractBase { private readonly RingBuffer _sqErrorBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _sqActualBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _sqPredBuffer; [StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)] private record struct State(double SqErrorSum, double SqActualSum, double SqPredSum, double SqErrorComp, double SqActualComp, double SqPredComp, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted); private State _state; private State _p_state; public TheilU(int period) { if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } _sqErrorBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _sqActualBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _sqPredBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); Name = $"TheilU({period})"; WarmupPeriod = period; } public override bool IsHot => _sqErrorBuffer.IsFull; [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true) { return UpdateCore(actual.AsDateTime, actual.Value, predicted.Value, isNew); } /// /// Non-allocating Update overload that accepts primitive values. /// Avoids TValue allocation in hot path. /// [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true) { return UpdateCore(DateTime.MinValue, actual, predicted, isNew); } public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true) { throw new NotSupportedException("TheilU requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted)."); } public override TSeries Update(TSeries source) { throw new NotSupportedException("TheilU requires two inputs. Use Batch(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period)."); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] private TValue UpdateCore(DateTime time, double actualVal, double predictedVal, bool isNew) { if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal)) { actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidActual = actualVal; } if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal)) { predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal; } double error = predictedVal - actualVal; double sqError = error * error; double sqActual = actualVal * actualVal; double sqPred = predictedVal * predictedVal; if (isNew) { _p_state = _state; double removedSqError = _sqErrorBuffer.Count == _sqErrorBuffer.Capacity ? _sqErrorBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = sqError - removedSqError; double y = delta - _state.SqErrorComp; double t = _state.SqErrorSum + y; _state.SqErrorComp = (t - _state.SqErrorSum) - y; _state.SqErrorSum = t; } _sqErrorBuffer.Add(sqError); double removedSqActual = _sqActualBuffer.Count == _sqActualBuffer.Capacity ? _sqActualBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = sqActual - removedSqActual; double y = delta - _state.SqActualComp; double t = _state.SqActualSum + y; _state.SqActualComp = (t - _state.SqActualSum) - y; _state.SqActualSum = t; } _sqActualBuffer.Add(sqActual); double removedSqPred = _sqPredBuffer.Count == _sqPredBuffer.Capacity ? _sqPredBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = sqPred - removedSqPred; double y = delta - _state.SqPredComp; double t = _state.SqPredSum + y; _state.SqPredComp = (t - _state.SqPredSum) - y; _state.SqPredSum = t; } _sqPredBuffer.Add(sqPred); } else { _state = _p_state; // Bar correction: update buffer and recalculate sums _sqErrorBuffer.UpdateNewest(sqError); _sqActualBuffer.UpdateNewest(sqActual); _sqPredBuffer.UpdateNewest(sqPred); _state.SqErrorSum = _sqErrorBuffer.RecalculateSum(); _state.SqActualSum = _sqActualBuffer.RecalculateSum(); _state.SqPredSum = _sqPredBuffer.RecalculateSum(); } // TheilU = √(Σ(pred-act)²) / √(Σact² + Σpred²) double denominator = Math.Sqrt(_state.SqActualSum + _state.SqPredSum); double result = denominator > 1e-10 ? Math.Sqrt(_state.SqErrorSum) / denominator : 0.0; Last = new TValue(time, result); PubEvent(Last, isNew); return Last; } public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null) { throw new NotSupportedException("TheilU requires two inputs."); } public override void Reset() { _sqErrorBuffer.Clear(); _sqActualBuffer.Clear(); _sqPredBuffer.Clear(); _state = default; _p_state = default; Last = default; } public static TSeries Batch(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) { throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); } int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) { throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); } if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) { return; } const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; Span sqErrorBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; Span sqActualBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; Span sqPredBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; double sqErrorSum = 0; double sqActualSum = 0; double sqPredSum = 0; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } int bufferIndex = 0; int i = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (; i < warmupEnd; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } double error = pred - act; double sqError = error * error; double sqActual = act * act; double sqPred = pred * pred; sqErrorSum += sqError; sqActualSum += sqActual; sqPredSum += sqPred; sqErrorBuffer[i] = sqError; sqActualBuffer[i] = sqActual; sqPredBuffer[i] = sqPred; double denom = Math.Sqrt(sqActualSum + sqPredSum); output[i] = denom > 1e-10 ? Math.Sqrt(sqErrorSum) / denom : 0.0; } for (; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } double error = pred - act; double sqError = error * error; double sqActual = act * act; double sqPred = pred * pred; // Use FMA for sliding-window updates sqErrorSum = Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(1.0, sqError, Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(-1.0, sqErrorBuffer[bufferIndex], sqErrorSum)); sqActualSum = Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(1.0, sqActual, Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(-1.0, sqActualBuffer[bufferIndex], sqActualSum)); sqPredSum = Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(1.0, sqPred, Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(-1.0, sqPredBuffer[bufferIndex], sqPredSum)); sqErrorBuffer[bufferIndex] = sqError; sqActualBuffer[bufferIndex] = sqActual; sqPredBuffer[bufferIndex] = sqPred; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) { bufferIndex = 0; } double denom = Math.Sqrt(sqActualSum + sqPredSum); output[i] = denom > 1e-10 ? Math.Sqrt(sqErrorSum) / denom : 0.0; } } public static (TSeries Results, TheilU Indicator) Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { var indicator = new TheilU(period); TSeries results = Batch(actual, predicted, period); return (results, indicator); } }