using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// RSE: Relative Squared Error /// /// /// RSE measures the total squared error relative to the total squared error of /// a simple predictor (the mean). It provides a normalized measure that indicates /// how well the model performs compared to predicting the mean for all values. /// /// Formula: /// RSE = Σ(actual - predicted)² / Σ(actual - mean(actual))² /// /// Key properties: /// - RSE < 1 means better than mean predictor /// - RSE = 1 means same as mean predictor /// - RSE > 1 means worse than mean predictor /// - Related to R² by: R² = 1 - RSE /// /// Uses Kahan compensated summation to prevent floating-point drift without periodic resync. /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class Rse : AbstractBase { private readonly RingBuffer _actualBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _sqErrorBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _sqBaselineBuffer; [StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)] private record struct State( double ActualSum, double SqErrorSum, double SqBaselineSum, double ActualComp, double SqErrorComp, double SqBaselineComp, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted); private State _state; private State _p_state; public Rse(int period) { if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } _actualBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _sqErrorBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _sqBaselineBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); Name = $"Rse({period})"; WarmupPeriod = period; } public override bool IsHot => _actualBuffer.IsFull; [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true) { double actualVal = actual.Value; double predictedVal = predicted.Value; // Restore state FIRST when isNew=false (before any state mutations) if (!isNew) { _state = _p_state; } if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal)) { actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidActual = actualVal; } if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal)) { predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal; } if (isNew) { _p_state = _state; // Update actual buffer for mean calculation — Kahan compensated double removedActual = _actualBuffer.Count == _actualBuffer.Capacity ? _actualBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = actualVal - removedActual; double y = delta - _state.ActualComp; double t = _state.ActualSum + y; _state.ActualComp = (t - _state.ActualSum) - y; _state.ActualSum = t; } _actualBuffer.Add(actualVal); // Calculate mean and baseline error double mean = _state.ActualSum / _actualBuffer.Count; double error = actualVal - predictedVal; double baselineError = actualVal - mean; double sqError = error * error; double sqBaseline = baselineError * baselineError; // Update squared error buffer — Kahan compensated double removedError = _sqErrorBuffer.Count == _sqErrorBuffer.Capacity ? _sqErrorBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = sqError - removedError; double y = delta - _state.SqErrorComp; double t = _state.SqErrorSum + y; _state.SqErrorComp = (t - _state.SqErrorSum) - y; _state.SqErrorSum = t; } _sqErrorBuffer.Add(sqError); // Update squared baseline buffer — Kahan compensated double removedBaseline = _sqBaselineBuffer.Count == _sqBaselineBuffer.Capacity ? _sqBaselineBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = sqBaseline - removedBaseline; double y = delta - _state.SqBaselineComp; double t = _state.SqBaselineSum + y; _state.SqBaselineComp = (t - _state.SqBaselineSum) - y; _state.SqBaselineSum = t; } _sqBaselineBuffer.Add(sqBaseline); } else { // Update actual buffer - incremental update is sufficient double removedActual = _actualBuffer.Count == _actualBuffer.Capacity ? _actualBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.ActualSum = _state.ActualSum - removedActual + actualVal; _actualBuffer.UpdateNewest(actualVal); // Calculate mean and errors double mean = _state.ActualSum / _actualBuffer.Count; double error = actualVal - predictedVal; double baselineError = actualVal - mean; double sqError = error * error; double sqBaseline = baselineError * baselineError; // Update squared error buffer - incremental update double removedError = _sqErrorBuffer.Count == _sqErrorBuffer.Capacity ? _sqErrorBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.SqErrorSum = _state.SqErrorSum - removedError + sqError; _sqErrorBuffer.UpdateNewest(sqError); // Update squared baseline buffer - incremental update double removedBaseline = _sqBaselineBuffer.Count == _sqBaselineBuffer.Capacity ? _sqBaselineBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; _state.SqBaselineSum = _state.SqBaselineSum - removedBaseline + sqBaseline; _sqBaselineBuffer.UpdateNewest(sqBaseline); } double result = _state.SqBaselineSum > 1e-10 ? _state.SqErrorSum / _state.SqBaselineSum : 1.0; Last = new TValue(actual.Time, result); PubEvent(Last, isNew); return Last; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true) { return Update(new TValue(DateTime.MinValue, actual), new TValue(DateTime.MinValue, predicted), isNew); } public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true) { throw new NotSupportedException("RSE requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted)."); } public override TSeries Update(TSeries source) { throw new NotSupportedException("RSE requires two inputs. Use Batch(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period)."); } public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null) { throw new NotSupportedException("RSE requires two inputs."); } public override void Reset() { _actualBuffer.Clear(); _sqErrorBuffer.Clear(); _sqBaselineBuffer.Clear(); _state = default; _p_state = default; Last = default; } public static TSeries Batch(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) { throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); } int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) { throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); } if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) { return; } const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; Span actualBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; Span sqErrorBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; Span sqBaselineBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; double actualSum = 0; double sqErrorSum = 0; double sqBaselineSum = 0; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } int bufferIndex = 0; int i = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (; i < warmupEnd; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } actualSum += act; actualBuffer[i] = act; double mean = actualSum / (i + 1); double error = act - pred; double baselineError = act - mean; double sqError = error * error; double sqBaseline = baselineError * baselineError; sqErrorSum += sqError; sqBaselineSum += sqBaseline; sqErrorBuffer[i] = sqError; sqBaselineBuffer[i] = sqBaseline; output[i] = sqBaselineSum > 1e-10 ? sqErrorSum / sqBaselineSum : 1.0; } for (; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } actualSum = actualSum - actualBuffer[bufferIndex] + act; actualBuffer[bufferIndex] = act; double mean = actualSum / period; double error = act - pred; double baselineError = act - mean; double sqError = error * error; double sqBaseline = baselineError * baselineError; sqErrorSum = sqErrorSum - sqErrorBuffer[bufferIndex] + sqError; sqBaselineSum = sqBaselineSum - sqBaselineBuffer[bufferIndex] + sqBaseline; sqErrorBuffer[bufferIndex] = sqError; sqBaselineBuffer[bufferIndex] = sqBaseline; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) { bufferIndex = 0; } output[i] = sqBaselineSum > 1e-10 ? sqErrorSum / sqBaselineSum : 1.0; } } public static (TSeries Results, Rse Indicator) Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { var indicator = new Rse(period); TSeries results = Batch(actual, predicted, period); return (results, indicator); } }