using System.Buffers; using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// QuantileLoss: Quantile Loss (Pinball Loss) /// /// /// Quantile Loss (also known as Pinball Loss) is used for quantile regression. /// It asymmetrically penalizes over- and under-predictions based on the quantile /// parameter. This is useful for generating prediction intervals. /// /// Formula: /// QuantileLoss = (1/n) * Σ max(q*(actual - predicted), (q-1)*(actual - predicted)) /// /// Which simplifies to: /// - If actual >= predicted: q * (actual - predicted) /// - If actual < predicted: (1-q) * (predicted - actual) /// /// Key properties: /// - Asymmetric penalty based on quantile parameter q /// - q = 0.5 gives MAE (median regression) /// - q > 0.5 penalizes under-prediction more heavily /// - q < 0.5 penalizes over-prediction more heavily /// - Used for prediction intervals (e.g., q=0.1 and q=0.9 for 80% interval) /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class QuantileLoss : BiInputIndicatorBase { /// /// Creates QuantileLoss with specified period and quantile. /// /// Number of values to average (must be > 0) /// Quantile value between 0 and 1 exclusive (default 0.5) public QuantileLoss(int period, double quantile = 0.5) : base(period, $"QuantileLoss({period},{quantile:F2})") { if (quantile <= 0.0 || quantile >= 1.0) { throw new ArgumentException("Quantile must be between 0 and 1 (exclusive)", nameof(quantile)); } Quantile = quantile; } /// /// The quantile parameter (0 < q < 1). /// public double Quantile { get; } /// /// Computes quantile loss for a single error. /// [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] protected override double ComputeError(double actual, double predicted) { double diff = actual - predicted; return diff >= 0 ? Quantile * diff : (Quantile - 1.0) * diff; } public static TSeries Batch(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period, double quantile = 0.5) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) { throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); } int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period, quantile); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period, double quantile = 0.5) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) { throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); } if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } if (quantile <= 0.0 || quantile >= 1.0) { throw new ArgumentException("Quantile must be between 0 and 1 (exclusive)", nameof(quantile)); } int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) { return; } const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; Span lossBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; double lossSum = 0; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } int bufferIndex = 0; int i = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (; i < warmupEnd; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } double diff = act - pred; double loss = diff >= 0 ? quantile * diff : (quantile - 1.0) * diff; lossSum += loss; lossBuffer[i] = loss; output[i] = lossSum / (i + 1); } for (; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } double diff = act - pred; double loss = diff >= 0 ? quantile * diff : (quantile - 1.0) * diff; lossSum = lossSum - lossBuffer[bufferIndex] + loss; lossBuffer[bufferIndex] = loss; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) { bufferIndex = 0; } output[i] = lossSum / period; } } public static (TSeries Results, QuantileLoss Indicator) Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period, double quantile = 0.5) { var indicator = new QuantileLoss(period, quantile); TSeries results = Batch(actual, predicted, period, quantile); return (results, indicator); } }