using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; using System.Runtime.InteropServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// MASE: Mean Absolute Scaled Error /// /// /// MASE scales the mean absolute error by the average absolute difference of the /// naive forecast (using previous value as prediction). This normalization makes /// the error interpretable relative to the inherent difficulty of predicting the series. /// /// Formula: /// MASE = MAE / Scale /// where Scale = (1/(n-1)) * Σ|actual[t] - actual[t-1]| /// /// Key properties: /// - Scale-independent through normalization /// - MASE < 1 means better than naive forecast /// - MASE = 1 means same as naive forecast /// - MASE > 1 means worse than naive forecast /// - Robust to zero actual values (unlike MAPE) /// /// Uses Kahan compensated summation to prevent floating-point drift without periodic resync. /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class Mase : AbstractBase { private readonly RingBuffer _errorBuffer; private readonly RingBuffer _scaleBuffer; [StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)] private record struct State( double ErrorSum, double ScaleSum, double ErrorComp, double ScaleComp, double LastValidActual, double LastValidPredicted, double PrevActual, int TickCount); private State _state; private State _p_state; public Mase(int period) { if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } _errorBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _scaleBuffer = new RingBuffer(period); _state = new State(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, double.NaN, 0); _p_state = new State(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, double.NaN, 0); Name = $"Mase({period})"; WarmupPeriod = period + 1; // Need one extra for scale calculation } public override bool IsHot => _errorBuffer.IsFull; [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(TValue actual, TValue predicted, bool isNew = true) { double actualVal = actual.Value; double predictedVal = predicted.Value; if (!double.IsFinite(actualVal)) { actualVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidActual) ? _state.LastValidActual : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidActual = actualVal; } if (!double.IsFinite(predictedVal)) { predictedVal = double.IsFinite(_state.LastValidPredicted) ? _state.LastValidPredicted : 0.0; } else { _state.LastValidPredicted = predictedVal; } double absError = Math.Abs(actualVal - predictedVal); double naiveDiff = double.IsFinite(_state.PrevActual) ? Math.Abs(actualVal - _state.PrevActual) : 0.0; if (isNew) { _p_state = _state; // Update error buffer — Kahan compensated double removedError = _errorBuffer.Count == _errorBuffer.Capacity ? _errorBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = absError - removedError; double y = delta - _state.ErrorComp; double t = _state.ErrorSum + y; _state.ErrorComp = (t - _state.ErrorSum) - y; _state.ErrorSum = t; } _errorBuffer.Add(absError); // Update scale buffer — Kahan compensated double removedScale = _scaleBuffer.Count == _scaleBuffer.Capacity ? _scaleBuffer.Oldest : 0.0; { double delta = naiveDiff - removedScale; double y = delta - _state.ScaleComp; double t = _state.ScaleSum + y; _state.ScaleComp = (t - _state.ScaleSum) - y; _state.ScaleSum = t; } _scaleBuffer.Add(naiveDiff); _state.PrevActual = actualVal; _state.TickCount++; } else { _state = _p_state; // Bar correction: update buffer and recalculate sums _errorBuffer.UpdateNewest(absError); _scaleBuffer.UpdateNewest(naiveDiff); _state.ErrorSum = _errorBuffer.RecalculateSum(); _state.ScaleSum = _scaleBuffer.RecalculateSum(); _state.PrevActual = actualVal; } int count = _errorBuffer.Count; int period = _errorBuffer.Capacity; double mae = count > 0 ? _state.ErrorSum / count : absError; // During warmup (first period items): scale = ScaleSum / (count-1), matching Batch's scaleSum/i // After warmup (item period+1 onward): scale = ScaleSum / period, matching Batch's scaleSum/period // TickCount is 1-based (incremented after adding), so use >= period+1 for post-warmup double scale; if (_state.TickCount > period) { scale = _state.ScaleSum / period; } else { scale = count > 1 ? _state.ScaleSum / (count - 1) : 1.0; } double result = scale > 1e-10 ? mae / scale : mae; Last = new TValue(actual.Time, result); PubEvent(Last, isNew); return Last; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public TValue Update(double actual, double predicted, bool isNew = true) { return Update(new TValue(DateTime.MinValue, actual), new TValue(DateTime.MinValue, predicted), isNew); } public override TValue Update(TValue input, bool isNew = true) { throw new NotSupportedException("MASE requires two inputs. Use Update(actual, predicted)."); } public override TSeries Update(TSeries source) { throw new NotSupportedException("MASE requires two inputs. Use Batch(actualSeries, predictedSeries, period)."); } public override void Prime(ReadOnlySpan source, TimeSpan? step = null) { throw new NotSupportedException("MASE requires two inputs."); } public override void Reset() { _errorBuffer.Clear(); _scaleBuffer.Clear(); _state = new State(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, double.NaN, 0); _p_state = new State(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, double.NaN, 0); Last = default; } public static TSeries Batch(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { if (actual.Count != predicted.Count) { throw new ArgumentException("Actual and predicted series must have the same length", nameof(predicted)); } int len = actual.Count; var t = new List(len); var v = new List(len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(t, len); CollectionsMarshal.SetCount(v, len); var tSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(t); var vSpan = CollectionsMarshal.AsSpan(v); Batch(actual.Values, predicted.Values, vSpan, period); actual.Times.CopyTo(tSpan); return new TSeries(t, v); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public static void Batch(ReadOnlySpan actual, ReadOnlySpan predicted, Span output, int period) { if (actual.Length != predicted.Length || actual.Length != output.Length) { throw new ArgumentException("All spans must have the same length", nameof(output)); } if (period <= 0) { throw new ArgumentException("Period must be greater than 0", nameof(period)); } int len = actual.Length; if (len == 0) { return; } const int StackAllocThreshold = 256; Span errorBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; Span scaleBuffer = period <= StackAllocThreshold ? stackalloc double[period] : new double[period]; double errorSum = 0; double scaleSum = 0; double lastValidActual = 0; double lastValidPredicted = 0; double prevActual = double.NaN; for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(actual[k])) { lastValidActual = actual[k]; break; } } for (int k = 0; k < len; k++) { if (double.IsFinite(predicted[k])) { lastValidPredicted = predicted[k]; break; } } int bufferIndex = 0; int i = 0; int warmupEnd = Math.Min(period, len); for (; i < warmupEnd; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } double absError = Math.Abs(act - pred); double naiveDiff = double.IsFinite(prevActual) ? Math.Abs(act - prevActual) : 0.0; errorSum += absError; scaleSum += naiveDiff; errorBuffer[i] = absError; scaleBuffer[i] = naiveDiff; double mae = errorSum / (i + 1); double scale = (i > 0) ? scaleSum / i : 1.0; // scale starts from second value output[i] = scale > 1e-10 ? mae / scale : mae; prevActual = act; } for (; i < len; i++) { double act = actual[i]; double pred = predicted[i]; if (double.IsFinite(act)) { lastValidActual = act; } else { act = lastValidActual; } if (double.IsFinite(pred)) { lastValidPredicted = pred; } else { pred = lastValidPredicted; } double absError = Math.Abs(act - pred); double naiveDiff = Math.Abs(act - prevActual); errorSum = errorSum - errorBuffer[bufferIndex] + absError; scaleSum = scaleSum - scaleBuffer[bufferIndex] + naiveDiff; errorBuffer[bufferIndex] = absError; scaleBuffer[bufferIndex] = naiveDiff; bufferIndex++; if (bufferIndex >= period) { bufferIndex = 0; } double mae = errorSum / period; double scale = scaleSum / period; output[i] = scale > 1e-10 ? mae / scale : mae; prevActual = act; } } public static (TSeries Results, Mase Indicator) Calculate(TSeries actual, TSeries predicted, int period) { var indicator = new Mase(period); TSeries results = Batch(actual, predicted, period); return (results, indicator); } }