using System.Runtime.CompilerServices;
namespace QuanTAlib;
///
/// CV: Conditional Volatility (GARCH)
/// Implements the GARCH(1,1) model for estimating conditional volatility,
/// which captures volatility clustering and mean reversion in financial markets.
///
///
/// The CV (GARCH) calculation process:
/// 1. Calculate returns: (Close[t] - Close[t-1])/Close[t-1]
/// 2. Update variance estimate using GARCH(1,1) formula:
/// σ²[t] = ω + α*r²[t-1] + β*σ²[t-1]
/// 3. Take square root to get volatility
///
/// Key characteristics:
/// - Captures volatility clustering
/// - Mean-reverting behavior
/// - Responds to market shocks
/// - Default period is 20 days
/// - Returns annualized volatility
///
/// Formula:
/// Returns[t] = (Close[t] - Close[t-1])/Close[t-1]
/// σ²[t] = ω + α*Returns²[t-1] + β*σ²[t-1]
/// CV[t] = sqrt(σ²[t]) * sqrt(252) * 100
///
/// Where:
/// ω (omega) = long-term variance * (1 - α - β)
/// α (alpha) = weight of recent squared return
/// β (beta) = weight of previous variance
///
/// Market Applications:
/// - Risk measurement
/// - Option pricing
/// - Value at Risk (VaR)
/// - Portfolio optimization
/// - Volatility forecasting
///
/// Sources:
/// Bollerslev (1986)
/// https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GARCH
///
/// Note: Returns annualized volatility as a percentage
///
[SkipLocalsInit]
public sealed class Cv : AbstractBase
{
private readonly int _period;
private readonly double _alpha;
private readonly double _beta;
private readonly double _omega;
private double _prevClose;
private double _prevVariance;
private bool _isInitialized;
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public Cv(int period = 20, double alpha = 0.1, double beta = 0.8)
{
_period = period;
_alpha = alpha;
_beta = beta;
_omega = 0.001 * (1 - alpha - beta); // Initial estimate, will be updated with actual data
WarmupPeriod = period + 1; // Need one extra period for returns
Name = $"CV({_period})";
Init();
}
/// The data source object that publishes updates.
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public Cv(object source, int period = 20, double alpha = 0.1, double beta = 0.8) : this(period, alpha, beta)
{
var pubEvent = source.GetType().GetEvent("Pub");
pubEvent?.AddEventHandler(source, new BarSignal(Sub));
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
public override void Init()
{
base.Init();
_prevClose = 0;
_prevVariance = 0;
_isInitialized = false;
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]
protected override void ManageState(bool isNew)
{
if (isNew)
{
_lastValidValue = Value;
_index++;
}
}
[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining | MethodImplOptions.AggressiveOptimization)]
protected override double Calculation()
{
ManageState(BarInput.IsNew);
// Skip first period to establish previous close
if (_index == 1)
{
_prevClose = BarInput.Close;
return 0;
}
// Calculate return
double return_ = (BarInput.Close - _prevClose) / _prevClose;
double squaredReturn = return_ * return_;
_prevClose = BarInput.Close;
// Initialize with first available data if not done
if (!_isInitialized && _index > _period)
{
double _longTermVariance = squaredReturn; // Use current squared return as initial estimate
_prevVariance = _longTermVariance;
_isInitialized = true;
}
// Need enough values for calculation
if (_index <= _period)
{
return 0;
}
// Update variance estimate using GARCH(1,1)
double variance = _omega + (_alpha * squaredReturn) + (_beta * _prevVariance);
_prevVariance = variance;
// Calculate annualized volatility as percentage
double volatility = Math.Sqrt(variance) * Math.Sqrt(252) * 100;
IsHot = _index >= WarmupPeriod;
return volatility;
}
}