using System.Runtime.CompilerServices; namespace QuanTAlib; /// /// COVAR: Covariance /// A statistical measure that quantifies how two variables change together. Unlike correlation, /// covariance is not normalized and therefore is scale-dependent. A positive covariance indicates /// that variables tend to move in the same direction, while a negative covariance indicates /// opposite movement. /// /// /// The Covariance calculation process: /// 1. Calculates mean of both variables /// 2. For each pair of points, multiply their deviations from their respective means /// 3. Sum these products and divide by the number of observations /// /// Key characteristics: /// - Measures linear relationship /// - Scale-dependent measure /// - Sign indicates direction of relationship /// - Magnitude depends on scale of variables /// - Basis for correlation coefficient /// /// Formula: /// Cov(X,Y) = Σ((x - μx)(y - μy)) / n /// where: /// X, Y = variables /// μx, μy = means of X and Y /// n = number of observations /// /// Market Applications: /// - Portfolio risk analysis /// - Pairs trading strategy development /// - Asset relationship analysis /// - Risk factor sensitivity analysis /// - Multi-asset portfolio optimization /// /// Sources: /// https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covariance /// "Modern Portfolio Theory" - Harry Markowitz /// /// Note: Scale-dependent nature means values should be interpreted in context of the data scales /// [SkipLocalsInit] public sealed class Covar : AbstractBase { private readonly int Period; private readonly CircularBuffer _xValues; private readonly CircularBuffer _yValues; private const int MinimumPoints = 2; /// The number of points to consider for covariance calculation. /// Thrown when period is less than 2. [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public Covar(int period) { if (period < MinimumPoints) { throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(period), "Period must be greater than or equal to 2 for covariance calculation."); } Period = period; WarmupPeriod = MinimumPoints; _xValues = new CircularBuffer(period); _yValues = new CircularBuffer(period); Name = $"Covar(period={period})"; Init(); } /// The data source object that publishes updates. /// The number of points to consider for covariance calculation. [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public Covar(object source, int period) : this(period) { var pubEvent = source.GetType().GetEvent("Pub"); pubEvent?.AddEventHandler(source, new ValueSignal(Sub)); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] public override void Init() { base.Init(); _xValues.Clear(); _yValues.Clear(); } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)] protected override void ManageState(bool isNew) { if (isNew) { _lastValidValue = Input.Value; _index++; } } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining | MethodImplOptions.AggressiveOptimization)] private static double CalculateMean(ReadOnlySpan values) { double sum = 0; for (int i = 0; i < values.Length; i++) { sum += values[i]; } return sum / values.Length; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining | MethodImplOptions.AggressiveOptimization)] private static double CalculateCovariance(ReadOnlySpan xValues, ReadOnlySpan yValues, double xMean, double yMean) { double covariance = 0; for (int i = 0; i < xValues.Length; i++) { covariance += (xValues[i] - xMean) * (yValues[i] - yMean); } return covariance / xValues.Length; } [MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining | MethodImplOptions.AggressiveOptimization)] protected override double Calculation() { ManageState(Input.IsNew); _xValues.Add(Input.Value, Input.IsNew); _yValues.Add(Input2.Value, Input.IsNew); double covariance = 0; if (_xValues.Count >= MinimumPoints && _yValues.Count >= MinimumPoints) { ReadOnlySpan xValues = _xValues.GetSpan(); ReadOnlySpan yValues = _yValues.GetSpan(); double xMean = CalculateMean(xValues); double yMean = CalculateMean(yValues); covariance = CalculateCovariance(xValues, yValues, xMean, yMean); } IsHot = _xValues.Count >= Period && _yValues.Count >= Period; return covariance; } }