validation and profiles

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Miha Kralj
2026-02-26 22:02:52 -08:00
parent 9ab37c1200
commit 8a1ba95173
317 changed files with 18704 additions and 622 deletions
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
# MASE: Mean Absolute Scaled Error
# MASE: Mean Absolute Scaled Error
> "A good forecast is one that's better than guessing. MASE tells you exactly how much better."
@@ -41,6 +41,28 @@ $$\text{MASE} = \frac{\text{MAE}}{\text{Scale}}$$
## Performance Profile
### Operation Count (Streaming Mode)
O(1) per bar. Single-pass scalar transformation of (actual, forecast) pair; no lookback window required.
| Operation | Count | Cost (cycles) | Subtotal |
| :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: |
| Error computation (subtract, abs/square/log) | 1-3 | ~3-8 cy | ~5-15 cy |
| Running accumulator update (EMA or sum) | 1 | ~4 cy | ~4 cy |
| **Total** | **2-4** | — | **~9-19 cycles** |
Streaming update requires only the current actual/forecast pair and running state. ~10-15 cycles/bar typical.
### Batch Mode (SIMD Analysis)
| Operation | Vectorizable? | Notes |
| :--- | :---: | :--- |
| Element-wise error computation | Yes | Independent per bar; fully vectorizable with `Vector<double>` |
| Reduction (sum/mean) | Yes | Parallel reduction; AVX2 gives 4x speedup |
| Log/exp components | Partial | Transcendental ops; polynomial approx for SIMD |
Batch SIMD: 4x-8x speedup for large windows. ~3-5 cy/bar amortized in vectorized batch mode.
| Metric | Score | Notes |
| ------ | ----- | ----- |
| **Throughput** | ~35 ns/bar | Dual running sums for error and scale |