From 9c713ad3f61a47c155d8c428104a7f0b7a1dd484 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: gavindiaz <cnws2018@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 02:21:11 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] Add analyze.sh: diagnostic script for signals.csv
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Outputs: file info, time span, recommendation breakdown, max edges,
phase distribution, max model probabilities per phase, would-be ENTER
breakdown by regime, recent rows, and PM2 error tails.

Use when no pushes arrive to distinguish 'no signals' from 'signals
being swallowed' — see DEPLOYMENT.md pitfall #7.
---
 analyze.sh | 71 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 71 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 analyze.sh

diff --git a/analyze.sh b/analyze.sh
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7fc17a2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analyze.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+CSV=/opt/PolymarketBTC15mAssistant/logs/signals.csv
+
+echo "=== File info ==="
+wc -l $CSV
+ls -la $CSV
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== Time span ==="
+head -2 $CSV | tail -1 | awk -F, '{print "first:", $1}'
+tail -1 $CSV | awk -F, '{print "last :", $1}'
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== Recommendation breakdown ==="
+awk -F, 'NR>1{print $12}' $CSV | sort | uniq -c | sort -rn
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== Max edges seen ==="
+awk -F, 'NR>1 && $10+0 > maxu {maxu=$10+0} END{printf "max edge_up:   %.4f\n", maxu}' $CSV
+awk -F, 'NR>1 && $11+0 > maxd {maxd=$11+0} END{printf "max edge_down: %.4f\n", maxd}' $CSV
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== Phase distribution ==="
+awk -F, 'NR>1{
+  t=$3+0;
+  if (t >= 10) p="EARLY";
+  else if (t >= 5) p="MID";
+  else p="LATE";
+  print p
+}' $CSV | sort | uniq -c
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== Max model_up/down at each phase ==="
+awk -F, 'NR>1{
+  mu=$6+0; md=$7+0; t=$3+0;
+  if (t >= 10) p="EARLY"; else if (t >= 5) p="MID"; else p="LATE";
+  if (mu > m[p"_u"]) m[p"_u"]=mu;
+  if (md > m[p"_d"]) m[p"_d"]=md;
+} END{for (k in m) printf "  %-6s model_up=%.3f  model_down=%.3f\n", k, m[k], 1-m[k]}' $CSV
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== TREND_UP rows: would-be ENTER breakdown ==="
+awk -F, 'NR>1 && $4 == "TREND_UP" && $10+0 > 0{
+  e=$10+0; mu=$6+0;
+  if (e >= 0.05 && mu >= 0.55) bucket="BOTH met (would ENTER)";
+  else if (e >= 0.05) bucket="edge ok, model low";
+  else if (mu >= 0.55) bucket="model ok, edge low";
+  else bucket="both low";
+  cnt[bucket]++
+} END{for (k in cnt) printf "  %-30s %d\n", k, cnt[k]}' $CSV
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== TREND_DOWN rows ==="
+awk -F, 'NR>1 && $4 == "TREND_DOWN" && $11+0 > 0{
+  e=$11+0; md=$7+0;
+  if (e >= 0.05 && md >= 0.55) bucket="BOTH met (would ENTER)";
+  else if (e >= 0.05) bucket="edge ok, model low";
+  else if (md >= 0.55) bucket="model ok, edge low";
+  else bucket="both low";
+  cnt[bucket]++
+} END{for (k in cnt) printf "  %-30s %d\n", k, cnt[k]}' $CSV
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== Recent 5 rows ==="
+tail -5 $CSV
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== PM2 errors (last 20 each) ==="
+echo "--- watcher ---"
+tail -20 /opt/PolymarketBTC15mAssistant/logs/pm2-watcher.err.log 2>/dev/null
+echo "--- bot ---"
+tail -20 /opt/PolymarketBTC15mAssistant/logs/pm2-bot.err.log 2>/dev/null
\ No newline at end of file