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PolyWeather/tests/test_ops_market_opportunities.py
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2026-07-04 00:20:52 +08:00

255 lines
8.4 KiB
Python

import pytest
from fastapi import HTTPException
import web.services.ops.market_opportunities as market_opportunities
from web.services.ops.market_opportunities import (
build_market_opportunity_rows,
get_ops_market_opportunities,
parse_market_option_from_question,
)
def _row(city="shanghai", symbol="°C"):
return {
"city": city,
"city_display_name": city.title(),
"local_date": "2026-07-03",
"local_time": "18:10",
"temp_symbol": symbol,
"current_max_so_far": 31.0,
"deb_prediction": 32.2,
"model_cluster_sources": {"ECMWF": 32.0, "GFS": 33.0, "ICON": 31.0},
"distribution_full": [
{"value": 31, "probability": 0.10},
{"value": 32, "probability": 0.41},
{"value": 33, "probability": 0.46},
{"value": 34, "probability": 0.03},
],
"trading_region_label_zh": "东亚",
}
def test_parse_market_option_supports_celsius_single_temperature():
option = parse_market_option_from_question(
"Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?",
"°C",
)
assert option["label"] == "33°C"
assert option["lower"] == 33
assert option["upper"] == 33
def test_parse_market_option_supports_fahrenheit_two_degree_range():
option = parse_market_option_from_question(
"Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 3?",
"°F",
)
assert option["label"] == "94-95°F"
assert option["lower"] == 94
assert option["upper"] == 95
def test_build_market_opportunities_scans_yes_and_no_low_price_edges():
event = {
"slug": "highest-temperature-in-shanghai-on-july-3-2026",
"title": "Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 3?",
"markets": [
{
"question": "Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?",
"slug": "highest-temperature-in-shanghai-on-july-3-2026-33c",
"active": True,
"closed": False,
"enableOrderBook": True,
"liquidity": "47000",
"volume": "13000",
"outcomes": '["Yes", "No"]',
"clobTokenIds": '["yes-33", "no-33"]',
},
{
"question": "Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 3?",
"slug": "highest-temperature-in-shanghai-on-july-3-2026-31c",
"active": True,
"closed": False,
"enableOrderBook": True,
"liquidity": "27000",
"volume": "6000",
"outcomes": '["Yes", "No"]',
"clobTokenIds": '["yes-31", "no-31"]',
},
],
}
rows = build_market_opportunity_rows(
[_row()],
{"shanghai": event},
{
"yes-33": 0.18,
"no-33": 0.62,
"yes-31": 0.12,
"no-31": 0.18,
},
max_price=0.20,
side="both",
positive_edge_only=True,
min_edge=0.0,
limit=20,
)
yes = next(row for row in rows if row["bucket_label"] == "33°C" and row["side"] == "yes")
no = next(row for row in rows if row["bucket_label"] == "31°C" and row["side"] == "no")
assert yes["model_probability"] == 0.46
assert yes["ask_price"] == 0.18
assert round(yes["edge"], 2) == 0.28
assert no["model_probability"] == 0.10
assert no["ask_price"] == 0.18
assert round(no["edge"], 2) == 0.72
assert all(row["ask_price"] < 0.20 for row in rows)
assert rows[0]["edge"] >= rows[-1]["edge"]
def test_build_market_opportunities_aggregates_fahrenheit_distribution():
event = {
"slug": "highest-temperature-in-houston-on-july-3-2026",
"markets": [
{
"question": "Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 3?",
"slug": "highest-temperature-in-houston-on-july-3-2026-94-95f",
"active": True,
"closed": False,
"enableOrderBook": True,
"liquidity": "10000",
"volume": "2000",
"outcomes": '["Yes", "No"]',
"clobTokenIds": '["yes-94", "no-94"]',
}
],
}
row = _row("houston", "°F")
row["distribution_full"] = [
{"value": 94, "probability": 0.40},
{"value": 95, "probability": 0.25},
{"value": 96, "probability": 0.10},
]
rows = build_market_opportunity_rows(
[row],
{"houston": event},
{"yes-94": 0.19, "no-94": 0.81},
max_price=0.20,
side="yes",
positive_edge_only=True,
min_edge=0.0,
limit=20,
)
assert rows[0]["bucket_label"] == "94-95°F"
assert rows[0]["model_probability"] == 0.65
assert round(rows[0]["edge"], 2) == 0.46
def test_ops_market_opportunities_requires_ops_admin(monkeypatch):
def deny(_request):
raise HTTPException(status_code=403, detail="ops only")
monkeypatch.setattr(market_opportunities, "_require_ops", deny)
with pytest.raises(HTTPException) as exc:
get_ops_market_opportunities(object())
assert exc.value.status_code == 403
def test_ops_market_opportunities_degrades_when_quotes_fail(monkeypatch):
monkeypatch.setattr(market_opportunities, "_require_ops", lambda _request: {"email": "ops@example.com"})
monkeypatch.setattr(
market_opportunities,
"build_scan_terminal_payload",
lambda *_args, **_kwargs: {"rows": [_row()]},
)
def fail_quotes(*_args, **_kwargs):
raise RuntimeError("polymarket down")
monkeypatch.setattr(market_opportunities, "_collect_events_and_prices", fail_quotes)
payload = get_ops_market_opportunities(object())
assert payload["summary"]["quote_status"] == "unavailable"
assert payload["summary"]["error"] == "polymarket down"
assert payload["rows"] == []
def test_ops_market_opportunities_reuses_prewarmed_terminal_snapshot(monkeypatch):
captured = {}
monkeypatch.setattr(market_opportunities, "_require_ops", lambda _request: {"email": "ops@example.com"})
def fake_scan(filters, *, force_refresh=False):
captured["filters"] = filters
captured["force_refresh"] = force_refresh
return {"rows": [_row()]}
monkeypatch.setattr(market_opportunities, "build_scan_terminal_payload", fake_scan)
monkeypatch.setattr(
market_opportunities,
"_collect_events_and_prices",
lambda rows, _scanner: ({row["city"]: None for row in rows}, {}, "ready"),
)
payload = get_ops_market_opportunities(object(), max_price=0.90, min_edge=0.0)
assert payload["summary"]["scanned_city_count"] == 1
assert captured["force_refresh"] is False
assert captured["filters"]["limit"] == 180
assert captured["filters"]["min_edge_pct"] == 2
assert captured["filters"]["min_liquidity"] == 500
def test_collect_events_and_prices_uses_gamma_hint_prices_without_clob_fanout():
class FakeScanner:
def fetch_event(self, _slug):
return {
"slug": "highest-temperature-in-shanghai-on-july-3-2026",
"markets": [
{
"question": "Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?",
"outcomes": '["Yes", "No"]',
"clobTokenIds": '["yes-33", "no-33"]',
"outcomePrices": '["0.12", "0.88"]',
}
],
}
def fetch_ask_price(self, _token_id):
raise AssertionError("CLOB should not be called when Gamma outcomePrices are present")
events, prices, status = market_opportunities._collect_events_and_prices(
[_row()],
FakeScanner(),
)
assert status == "ready"
assert "shanghai" in events
assert prices == {"yes-33": 0.12, "no-33": 0.88}
def test_collect_events_and_prices_stops_on_time_budget():
class SlowScanner:
def fetch_event(self, _slug):
raise AssertionError("time budget should stop external event fetching")
def fetch_ask_price(self, _token_id):
raise AssertionError("time budget should stop external price fetching")
events, prices, status = market_opportunities._collect_events_and_prices(
[_row()],
SlowScanner(),
time_budget_sec=0,
)
assert status == "partial"
assert events == {}
assert prices == {}