2569718930@qq.com
868 lines
37 KiB
TypeScript
868 lines
37 KiB
TypeScript
import type { LandingLocale } from "@/components/landing/landingLocale";
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export const PUBLIC_CONTENT_BASE_URL = "https://polyweather.top";
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export type PublicBriefSignal = {
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label: string;
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value: string;
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detail: string;
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};
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export type PublicBrief = {
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city: string;
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cityName: string;
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countryName: string;
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date: string;
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title: string;
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description: string;
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market: string;
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settlementSource: string;
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updatedAt: string;
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publishedAt: string;
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dataFreshness: string;
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debRead: string;
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sourceRead: string;
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modelRead: string;
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riskRead: string;
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notFinancialAdvice: string;
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distributionText: string;
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primaryCtaLabel: string;
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sourceSlugs: string[];
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methodologySlugs: string[];
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signals: PublicBriefSignal[];
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checkpoints: string[];
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};
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export type MethodologyPage = {
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slug: string;
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title: string;
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description: string;
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updatedAt: string;
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summary: string;
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sections: Array<{
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heading: string;
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body: string;
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bullets: string[];
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}>;
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};
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export type SourcePage = {
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slug: string;
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title: string;
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description: string;
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updatedAt: string;
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operator: string;
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coverage: string;
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cadence: string;
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settlementUse: string;
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reliabilityNotes: string[];
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relatedMethodologySlugs: string[];
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};
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export type PublicContentCopy = {
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allPublicBriefs: string;
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briefIndexDescription: string;
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briefIndexEyebrow: string;
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briefIndexTitle: string;
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checksBeforeActing: string;
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distributionCopy: string;
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docs: string;
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freshness: string;
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market: string;
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methodology: string;
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methodologyIndexDescription: string;
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methodologyIndexEyebrow: string;
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methodologyIndexTitle: string;
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methodologyLinks: string;
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methodologyPanelBody: string;
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methodologyPanelTitle: string;
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openLiveTerminal: string;
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readBrief: string;
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readMethodology: string;
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readSourceNote: string;
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settlementSource: string;
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shareOnX: string;
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snapshot: string;
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sourceIndexDescription: string;
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sourceIndexEyebrow: string;
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sourceIndexTitle: string;
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sourceLinks: string;
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sourceNotes: string;
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sourcePanelBody: string;
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sourcePanelTitle: string;
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sources: string;
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updated: string;
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detailLabels: {
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debRead: string;
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modelContext: string;
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riskNotes: string;
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settlementSourceRead: string;
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};
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};
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export const PUBLIC_CONTENT_COPY: Record<LandingLocale, PublicContentCopy> = {
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"zh-CN": {
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allPublicBriefs: "全部公开简报",
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briefIndexDescription:
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"公开天气市场简报把选定城市的市场读数整理为可索引证据：结算源、DEB 背景、模型分歧、新鲜度备注，以及明确的研究免责声明。",
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briefIndexEyebrow: "天气市场简报",
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briefIndexTitle: "公开天气市场简报",
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checksBeforeActing: "行动前检查",
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distributionCopy: "分发文案",
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docs: "文档",
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freshness: "新鲜度",
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market: "市场",
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methodology: "方法",
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methodologyIndexDescription:
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"公开方法页解释 PolyWeather 如何处理 DEB 融合、结算源优先级、新鲜度和来源校验。",
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methodologyIndexEyebrow: "方法",
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methodologyIndexTitle: "PolyWeather 如何读取天气市场",
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methodologyLinks: "方法链接",
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methodologyPanelBody:
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"简报会交叉链接 DEB 方法和结算源优先级页面，让读者能审计为什么 PolyWeather 不把通用城市预报直接当作市场真实值。",
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methodologyPanelTitle: "公开读数如何产生",
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openLiveTerminal: "打开实时终端",
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readBrief: "阅读简报",
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readMethodology: "阅读方法",
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readSourceNote: "阅读来源说明",
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settlementSource: "结算源",
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shareOnX: "分享到 X",
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snapshot: "快照",
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sourceIndexDescription:
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"来源页把官方观测、机场观测和模型指引分开展示，方便读者审计 PolyWeather 为什么优先使用与结算相关的证据。",
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sourceIndexEyebrow: "来源",
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sourceIndexTitle: "用于公开审计的天气来源说明",
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sourceLinks: "来源链接",
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sourceNotes: "来源说明",
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sourcePanelBody:
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"来源页解释为什么 MGM、METAR、HKO、NOAA 和模型指引会在 PolyWeather 工作流中分开展示。",
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sourcePanelTitle: "官方来源上下文",
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sources: "来源",
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updated: "更新",
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detailLabels: {
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debRead: "DEB 读数",
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modelContext: "模型上下文",
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riskNotes: "风险备注",
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settlementSourceRead: "结算源读数",
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},
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},
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"en-US": {
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allPublicBriefs: "All public briefs",
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briefIndexDescription:
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"Public Weather Market Brief pages turn selected city-market reads into indexable evidence: settlement source, DEB context, model disagreement, freshness notes, and a clear research disclaimer.",
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briefIndexEyebrow: "Weather Market Brief",
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briefIndexTitle: "Public market briefs for temperature judgment",
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checksBeforeActing: "Checks before acting",
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distributionCopy: "Distribution copy",
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docs: "Docs",
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freshness: "Freshness",
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market: "Market",
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methodology: "Methodology",
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methodologyIndexDescription:
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"Public methodology pages explain how PolyWeather handles DEB blending, settlement-source priority, freshness, and source reconciliation for prediction-market weather analysis.",
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methodologyIndexEyebrow: "Methodology",
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methodologyIndexTitle: "How PolyWeather reads weather markets",
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methodologyLinks: "Methodology links",
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methodologyPanelBody:
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"Briefs cross-link to the DEB methodology and settlement-source priority pages so readers can audit why PolyWeather does not treat generic city forecasts as market truth.",
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methodologyPanelTitle: "How the public read is produced",
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openLiveTerminal: "Open live terminal",
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readBrief: "Read brief",
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readMethodology: "Read methodology",
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readSourceNote: "Read source note",
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settlementSource: "Settlement source",
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shareOnX: "Share on X",
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snapshot: "Snapshot",
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sourceIndexDescription:
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"Source pages separate official observations, airport observations, and model guidance so readers can inspect why PolyWeather prioritizes settlement-relevant evidence.",
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sourceIndexEyebrow: "Sources",
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sourceIndexTitle: "Weather source notes for public audit",
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sourceLinks: "Source links",
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sourceNotes: "Source notes",
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sourcePanelBody:
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"Source pages explain why MGM, METAR, HKO, NOAA, and model guidance are displayed separately in PolyWeather workflows.",
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sourcePanelTitle: "Official-source context",
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sources: "Sources",
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updated: "Updated",
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detailLabels: {
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debRead: "DEB read",
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modelContext: "Model context",
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riskNotes: "Risk notes",
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settlementSourceRead: "Settlement-source read",
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},
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},
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};
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export const PUBLIC_BRIEFS: PublicBrief[] = [
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{
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city: "ankara",
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cityName: "Ankara",
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countryName: "Turkey",
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date: "2026-06-24",
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title: "Ankara Weather Market Brief - 24 Jun 2026",
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description:
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"A public market brief for Ankara maximum temperature judgment, focused on MGM settlement-source behavior, DEB blended forecast context, and anomaly checks.",
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market: "Same-day maximum temperature judgment",
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settlementSource: "MGM official station",
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updatedAt: "2026-06-24T13:55:00+03:00",
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publishedAt: "2026-06-24T13:55:00+03:00",
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dataFreshness:
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"Static public snapshot. Paid terminal users should verify the latest official observation and SSE replay state before acting.",
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debRead:
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"DEB kept the intraday high-temperature read below the isolated MGM spike and closer to the observed official range.",
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sourceRead:
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"MGM is treated as the primary settlement reference. A single 27.1°C point should be checked against adjacent official readings before it is accepted as a new high.",
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modelRead:
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"ECMWF was warmer than the DEB blend in the early afternoon window, but the public brief weights official observations above model-only movement.",
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riskRead:
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"Main risk is a late official update or a source-side correction that changes the recognized high after the public snapshot.",
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notFinancialAdvice:
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"This brief is weather-research content for prediction-market preparation. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee settlement outcomes.",
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distributionText:
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"Ankara 2026-06-24 public Weather Market Brief: MGM official readings favored a 24.5°C observed high over an isolated 27.1°C spike; DEB stayed below the outlier. Not financial advice.",
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primaryCtaLabel: "Open live terminal",
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sourceSlugs: ["mgm", "metar", "ecmwf"],
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methodologySlugs: ["deb", "settlement-sources"],
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signals: [
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{
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label: "Observed high so far",
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value: "24.5°C",
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detail: "Official-source value to compare against any isolated higher point.",
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},
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{
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label: "Outlier under review",
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value: "27.1°C",
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detail: "A sudden single-source value needs neighboring-time validation.",
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},
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{
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label: "DEB public read",
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value: "Below spike",
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detail: "Blend stayed closer to the verified observation band.",
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},
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],
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checkpoints: [
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"Check whether the suspected spike appears in the official high-temperature summary.",
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"Compare adjacent MGM observations before treating a single point as settlement-relevant.",
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"Review the paid terminal for live chart patches and source freshness before market close.",
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],
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},
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{
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city: "hong-kong",
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cityName: "Hong Kong",
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countryName: "Hong Kong",
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date: "2026-06-24",
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title: "Hong Kong Weather Market Brief - 24 Jun 2026",
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description:
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"A public brief showing how PolyWeather frames HKO/Cheung Chau/airport observations against DEB and model spread for maximum-temperature markets.",
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market: "Urban and airport maximum temperature judgment",
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settlementSource: "HKO official network",
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updatedAt: "2026-06-24T18:00:00+08:00",
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publishedAt: "2026-06-24T18:00:00+08:00",
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dataFreshness:
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"Static public snapshot. Live terminal values may differ as HKO and station caches refresh.",
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debRead:
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"DEB favored a narrow high-temperature window because live observations and model spread were aligned by late afternoon.",
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sourceRead:
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"HKO network observations remain the source family to reconcile before interpreting airport-only movement.",
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modelRead:
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"Model disagreement was limited, so source freshness and station selection mattered more than broad synoptic uncertainty.",
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riskRead:
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"Primary risk is station-specific heat retention during late afternoon or a late official summary revision.",
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notFinancialAdvice:
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"This brief is weather-research content for prediction-market preparation. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee settlement outcomes.",
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distributionText:
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"Hong Kong 2026-06-24 public Weather Market Brief: source selection and HKO freshness mattered more than model spread. Not financial advice.",
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primaryCtaLabel: "Open live terminal",
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sourceSlugs: ["hko", "metar"],
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methodologySlugs: ["deb", "settlement-sources"],
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signals: [
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{
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label: "Source family",
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value: "HKO",
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detail: "Use official station context before airport-only interpretation.",
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},
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{
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label: "Model spread",
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value: "Low",
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detail: "Late-day uncertainty mainly came from station behavior.",
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},
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{
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label: "Terminal need",
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value: "Freshness",
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detail: "Live source timestamps decide whether the public snapshot is still useful.",
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},
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],
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checkpoints: [
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"Verify HKO station timestamps before comparing market bands.",
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"Separate airport METAR observations from settlement-source network readings.",
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"Check terminal source health if the public snapshot is older than one refresh cycle.",
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],
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},
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{
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city: "new-york",
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cityName: "New York",
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countryName: "United States",
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date: "2026-06-24",
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title: "New York Weather Market Brief - 24 Jun 2026",
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description:
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"A public brief for New York temperature markets, connecting METAR, NOAA context, DEB blending, and late-day risk checks.",
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market: "Airport-linked maximum temperature judgment",
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settlementSource: "METAR and NOAA station context",
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updatedAt: "2026-06-24T12:30:00-04:00",
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publishedAt: "2026-06-24T12:30:00-04:00",
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dataFreshness:
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"Static public snapshot. Paid terminal users should check current METAR observations and official summaries.",
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debRead:
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"DEB weighted the latest observation trend against warmer model guidance instead of following the raw model high.",
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sourceRead:
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"METAR provides fast airport evidence, while NOAA context helps validate whether the airport value is representative.",
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modelRead:
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"Warm model guidance can be useful only after it is reconciled with live airport observations and cloud/wind context.",
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riskRead:
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"Primary risk is a short late-day break in cloud cover that lifts airport observations into a higher band.",
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notFinancialAdvice:
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"This brief is weather-research content for prediction-market preparation. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee settlement outcomes.",
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distributionText:
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"New York 2026-06-24 public Weather Market Brief: DEB blended warmer guidance against live airport evidence. Not financial advice.",
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primaryCtaLabel: "Open live terminal",
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sourceSlugs: ["metar", "noaa"],
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methodologySlugs: ["deb", "settlement-sources"],
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signals: [
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{
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label: "Fast evidence",
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value: "METAR",
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detail: "Airport observations define the short-cycle read.",
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},
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{
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label: "Validation",
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value: "NOAA",
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detail: "Official context helps audit the final high-temperature interpretation.",
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},
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{
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label: "DEB stance",
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value: "Blend",
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detail: "Do not follow a warm model run without live evidence confirmation.",
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},
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],
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checkpoints: [
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"Watch the last two METAR cycles before the daily high window ends.",
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"Check whether model warmth is supported by cloud and wind observations.",
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"Use official source context before final settlement interpretation.",
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],
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},
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];
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export const METHODOLOGY_PAGES: MethodologyPage[] = [
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{
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slug: "deb",
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title: "DEB Forecast Methodology",
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description:
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"How PolyWeather frames DEB blended forecasts for prediction-market temperature decisions without replacing settlement-source evidence.",
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updatedAt: "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
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summary:
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"DEB is the public name for PolyWeather's blended forecast layer. It reconciles model guidance, live observation momentum, source freshness, and station context so users can judge a high-temperature band with fewer single-model mistakes.",
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sections: [
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{
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heading: "What DEB is for",
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body:
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"DEB is not a settlement oracle. It is a decision-support layer that makes the live observation path and model spread easier to compare.",
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bullets: [
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"Prefer settlement-source evidence when it conflicts with model-only guidance.",
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"Treat stale or isolated source values as quality-control candidates.",
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"Expose the forecast band and the reason a band is widening or narrowing.",
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],
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},
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{
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heading: "Inputs that matter",
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body:
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"The blend is useful because it combines different evidence classes instead of pretending one model run is enough.",
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bullets: [
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"Latest official or airport observations and their freshness.",
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"Model consensus and disagreement across ECMWF, GFS, ICON, GEM, and local sources when available.",
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"City-specific source behavior, station selection, and intraday high timing.",
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],
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},
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{
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heading: "How to read a DEB miss",
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body:
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"A DEB miss should be reviewed by separating source freshness, model spread, and settlement-source revisions.",
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bullets: [
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"If the observed high changed after a late source patch, classify it as a freshness or replay issue.",
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"If every source was fresh but the high landed outside the band, review model weighting and local station features.",
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"If one source jumped alone, audit neighboring observations before retraining around the outlier.",
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],
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},
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],
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},
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{
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slug: "settlement-sources",
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title: "Settlement-Source Priority",
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description:
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"Why PolyWeather presents official settlement-related observations before generic weather API values.",
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updatedAt: "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
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summary:
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"Prediction-market users care about the number that resolves the contract. PolyWeather therefore puts official station, airport, and operator-specific source behavior above broad consumer-weather averages.",
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sections: [
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{
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heading: "Why generic weather values are not enough",
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body:
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"Consumer weather apps often smooth station data or display city-wide approximations. Market resolution can depend on a narrower official source.",
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bullets: [
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"A city label may hide multiple stations with different daily highs.",
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"Airport METAR can update faster than a public summary, but may not be the final settlement source.",
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"Official source revisions can matter more than a visually smooth forecast curve.",
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],
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},
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{
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heading: "What PolyWeather surfaces",
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body:
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"The terminal separates source labels, observation timestamps, forecast models, and freshness state so a user can audit the path to a number.",
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bullets: [
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"Settlement-source labels and station context on charts.",
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"Source freshness, cache policy, and SSE patch visibility.",
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"DEB forecast context shown next to live observations, not as a replacement for them.",
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],
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},
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],
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},
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];
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export const SOURCE_PAGES: SourcePage[] = [
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{
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slug: "mgm",
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title: "MGM Weather Source",
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description:
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"PolyWeather source note for Turkish MGM observations used in Ankara-style temperature market analysis.",
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updatedAt: "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
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operator: "Turkish State Meteorological Service",
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coverage: "Turkey official station network, including Ankara market context.",
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cadence: "Source cadence varies by station and publication path; terminal freshness checks are required.",
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settlementUse:
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"Used as the primary official-source family when Ankara markets reference Turkish official observations.",
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reliabilityNotes: [
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"Single-point spikes should be compared with neighboring timestamps before being accepted.",
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"Official summaries can lag raw point observations.",
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"Cache and SSE replay state should be checked when a value appears suddenly.",
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],
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relatedMethodologySlugs: ["settlement-sources", "deb"],
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},
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{
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slug: "metar",
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title: "METAR Airport Observations",
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description:
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"PolyWeather source note for airport METAR observations used as fast evidence in temperature-market workflows.",
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updatedAt: "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
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operator: "Airport weather observation network",
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coverage: "Airport-linked observations across supported markets.",
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cadence: "Often hourly or sub-hourly depending on airport and issuance behavior.",
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settlementUse:
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"Useful for fast evidence and airport-linked contracts; must be reconciled with the contract's exact settlement source.",
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reliabilityNotes: [
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"METAR can update faster than official daily summaries.",
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"Airport exposure may differ from city-center official stations.",
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"Late METAR cycles can change high-temperature judgment near market close.",
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],
|
|
relatedMethodologySlugs: ["settlement-sources", "deb"],
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
slug: "ecmwf",
|
|
title: "ECMWF Model Guidance",
|
|
description:
|
|
"PolyWeather source note for ECMWF model guidance as one input into DEB blended forecasts.",
|
|
updatedAt: "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
|
|
operator: "European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts",
|
|
coverage: "Global numerical weather prediction guidance.",
|
|
cadence: "Model-run cadence depends on product and ingestion timing.",
|
|
settlementUse:
|
|
"Used for forecast context only. It does not replace live official observations for settlement interpretation.",
|
|
reliabilityNotes: [
|
|
"Model warmth or coolness should be validated against live observations.",
|
|
"Run-to-run shifts can be useful when source evidence has not yet settled.",
|
|
"Model spread should be shown beside, not above, settlement-source data.",
|
|
],
|
|
relatedMethodologySlugs: ["deb"],
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
slug: "hko",
|
|
title: "HKO Official Observations",
|
|
description:
|
|
"PolyWeather source note for Hong Kong Observatory observations in Hong Kong market analysis.",
|
|
updatedAt: "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
|
|
operator: "Hong Kong Observatory",
|
|
coverage: "Hong Kong official observation network and station-specific context.",
|
|
cadence: "Cadence varies by observation product; terminal freshness checks remain required.",
|
|
settlementUse:
|
|
"Used as the official-source family for Hong Kong station and city-market interpretation.",
|
|
reliabilityNotes: [
|
|
"Station selection can materially change the maximum-temperature read.",
|
|
"Airport observations should be separated from broader HKO network readings.",
|
|
"Humidity, wind, and late-day sun breaks can affect final highs.",
|
|
],
|
|
relatedMethodologySlugs: ["settlement-sources", "deb"],
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
slug: "noaa",
|
|
title: "NOAA Weather Context",
|
|
description:
|
|
"PolyWeather source note for NOAA context used to validate US weather-market observations and summaries.",
|
|
updatedAt: "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
|
|
operator: "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
|
|
coverage: "United States official weather observations, summaries, and context products.",
|
|
cadence: "Cadence depends on product family and station reporting behavior.",
|
|
settlementUse:
|
|
"Used to audit and contextualize US official observations where contract rules reference NOAA/NWS data.",
|
|
reliabilityNotes: [
|
|
"Official summaries can arrive after fast airport observations.",
|
|
"Daily high interpretation should match the contract's station and time zone rules.",
|
|
"Use NOAA context to confirm whether an airport observation is representative.",
|
|
],
|
|
relatedMethodologySlugs: ["settlement-sources", "deb"],
|
|
},
|
|
];
|
|
|
|
const BRIEF_LOCALIZATIONS: Record<string, Partial<PublicBrief>> = {
|
|
"ankara:2026-06-24": {
|
|
cityName: "安卡拉",
|
|
countryName: "土耳其",
|
|
title: "安卡拉天气市场简报 - 2026年6月24日",
|
|
description:
|
|
"安卡拉最高温公开简报，聚焦 MGM 结算源行为、DEB 融合预报背景和异常值复核。",
|
|
market: "当日最高温判断",
|
|
settlementSource: "MGM 官方站",
|
|
dataFreshness:
|
|
"静态公开快照。付费终端用户行动前应核对最新官方观测和 SSE replay 状态。",
|
|
debRead:
|
|
"DEB 将日内最高温读数压在孤立 MGM 尖峰下方，更接近已观测的官方区间。",
|
|
sourceRead:
|
|
"MGM 被视为主要结算参考。单个 27.1°C 点位在接受为新高前，需要与相邻官方读数比对。",
|
|
modelRead:
|
|
"ECMWF 在午后窗口比 DEB 融合更暖，但公开简报把官方观测置于纯模型移动之上。",
|
|
riskRead:
|
|
"主要风险是晚些时候官方更新或来源侧修正，导致公开快照后的认可高温发生变化。",
|
|
notFinancialAdvice:
|
|
"本简报是用于预测市场准备的天气研究内容，不构成金融建议，也不保证结算结果。",
|
|
distributionText:
|
|
"安卡拉 2026-06-24 公开天气市场简报：MGM 官方读数更支持 24.5°C 已观测高温，而非孤立 27.1°C 尖峰；DEB 仍低于异常点。非金融建议。",
|
|
primaryCtaLabel: "打开实时终端",
|
|
signals: [
|
|
{
|
|
label: "目前官方高温",
|
|
value: "24.5°C",
|
|
detail: "用于对比任何孤立更高点的官方来源值。",
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
label: "异常点待复核",
|
|
value: "27.1°C",
|
|
detail: "突然出现的单源值需要相邻时间验证。",
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
label: "DEB 公开读数",
|
|
value: "低于尖峰",
|
|
detail: "融合路径仍更接近已验证观测带。",
|
|
},
|
|
],
|
|
checkpoints: [
|
|
"检查疑似尖峰是否进入官方高温摘要。",
|
|
"在把单点视为结算相关之前，先比较相邻 MGM 观测。",
|
|
"市场关闭前查看付费终端的实时图表 patch 和来源新鲜度。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
"hong-kong:2026-06-24": {
|
|
cityName: "香港",
|
|
countryName: "香港",
|
|
title: "香港天气市场简报 - 2026年6月24日",
|
|
description:
|
|
"公开简报展示 PolyWeather 如何把 HKO/长洲/机场观测与 DEB、模型分歧放在一起解释最高温市场。",
|
|
market: "城市与机场最高温判断",
|
|
settlementSource: "HKO 官方网络",
|
|
dataFreshness:
|
|
"静态公开快照。HKO 和站点缓存刷新后，实时终端数值可能不同。",
|
|
debRead:
|
|
"到午后后段，实况观测与模型分歧趋于一致，DEB 支持较窄的高温窗口。",
|
|
sourceRead:
|
|
"解释机场单独移动前，应先把 HKO 网络观测作为需要校验的来源族。",
|
|
modelRead:
|
|
"模型分歧有限，因此来源新鲜度和站点选择比大尺度天气不确定性更重要。",
|
|
riskRead:
|
|
"主要风险是午后后段特定站点保温，或官方摘要出现较晚修订。",
|
|
notFinancialAdvice:
|
|
"本简报是用于预测市场准备的天气研究内容，不构成金融建议，也不保证结算结果。",
|
|
distributionText:
|
|
"香港 2026-06-24 公开天气市场简报：来源选择和 HKO 新鲜度比模型分歧更关键。非金融建议。",
|
|
primaryCtaLabel: "打开实时终端",
|
|
signals: [
|
|
{
|
|
label: "来源族",
|
|
value: "HKO",
|
|
detail: "先使用官方站上下文，再解释机场读数。",
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
label: "模型分歧",
|
|
value: "低",
|
|
detail: "晚间不确定性主要来自站点行为。",
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
label: "终端需要",
|
|
value: "新鲜度",
|
|
detail: "实时来源时间戳决定公开快照是否仍有用。",
|
|
},
|
|
],
|
|
checkpoints: [
|
|
"比较市场温度桶前先确认 HKO 站点时间戳。",
|
|
"把机场 METAR 观测与 HKO 网络读数分开解释。",
|
|
"如果公开快照已超过一个刷新周期，检查终端来源健康状态。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
"new-york:2026-06-24": {
|
|
cityName: "纽约",
|
|
countryName: "美国",
|
|
title: "纽约天气市场简报 - 2026年6月24日",
|
|
description:
|
|
"纽约温度市场公开简报，连接 METAR、NOAA 上下文、DEB 融合和日内尾段风险检查。",
|
|
market: "机场关联最高温判断",
|
|
settlementSource: "METAR 与 NOAA 站点上下文",
|
|
dataFreshness:
|
|
"静态公开快照。付费终端用户应检查当前 METAR 观测和官方摘要。",
|
|
debRead:
|
|
"DEB 用最新观测趋势校验偏暖模型指引，而不是直接追随原始模型高温。",
|
|
sourceRead:
|
|
"METAR 提供快速机场证据，NOAA 上下文帮助确认机场读数是否具代表性。",
|
|
modelRead:
|
|
"偏暖模型指引只有在和机场实况、云量/风场上下文校验后才有价值。",
|
|
riskRead:
|
|
"主要风险是日内尾段云层短暂打开，将机场观测推入更高温度桶。",
|
|
notFinancialAdvice:
|
|
"本简报是用于预测市场准备的天气研究内容，不构成金融建议，也不保证结算结果。",
|
|
distributionText:
|
|
"纽约 2026-06-24 公开天气市场简报：DEB 将偏暖模型指引与机场实时证据融合。非金融建议。",
|
|
primaryCtaLabel: "打开实时终端",
|
|
signals: [
|
|
{
|
|
label: "快速证据",
|
|
value: "METAR",
|
|
detail: "机场观测定义短周期读数。",
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
label: "复核",
|
|
value: "NOAA",
|
|
detail: "官方上下文帮助审计最终最高温解释。",
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
label: "DEB 立场",
|
|
value: "融合",
|
|
detail: "没有实况确认，不追随偏暖模型运行。",
|
|
},
|
|
],
|
|
checkpoints: [
|
|
"在每日高温窗口结束前观察最后两个 METAR 周期。",
|
|
"检查模型偏暖是否得到云量和风场观测支持。",
|
|
"最终解释结算前先使用官方来源上下文。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
const METHODOLOGY_PAGE_LOCALIZATIONS: Record<string, Partial<MethodologyPage>> = {
|
|
deb: {
|
|
title: "DEB 预测方法",
|
|
description:
|
|
"PolyWeather 如何把 DEB 融合预报用于预测市场温度判断，同时不替代结算源证据。",
|
|
summary:
|
|
"DEB 是 PolyWeather 融合预报层的公开名称。它把模型指引、实时观测动量、来源新鲜度和站点上下文放在一起，帮助用户用更少单模型误判来判断最高温区间。",
|
|
sections: [
|
|
{
|
|
heading: "DEB 用来做什么",
|
|
body:
|
|
"DEB 不是结算预言机。它是决策辅助层，让实时观测路径和模型分歧更容易对比。",
|
|
bullets: [
|
|
"当模型指引与结算源证据冲突时，优先看结算源证据。",
|
|
"把过期或孤立的来源值视为需要质检的候选点。",
|
|
"展示预报区间以及区间变宽或收窄的原因。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
heading: "关键输入",
|
|
body:
|
|
"融合层有用，是因为它组合了不同证据类别，而不是假设一次模型运行就足够。",
|
|
bullets: [
|
|
"最新官方或机场观测及其新鲜度。",
|
|
"ECMWF、GFS、ICON、GEM 以及可用本地来源之间的模型共识和分歧。",
|
|
"城市特定来源行为、站点选择和日内最高温时段。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
heading: "如何复盘 DEB 偏差",
|
|
body:
|
|
"DEB 偏差应拆开来源新鲜度、模型分歧和结算源修订来复盘。",
|
|
bullets: [
|
|
"如果晚到来源 patch 改变了观测高温，将其归类为新鲜度或 replay 问题。",
|
|
"如果所有来源都新鲜但高温落在区间外，复盘模型权重和本地站点特征。",
|
|
"如果只有单一来源跳变，先审计相邻观测，再围绕异常点重训。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
"settlement-sources": {
|
|
title: "结算源优先级",
|
|
description:
|
|
"为什么 PolyWeather 先展示官方结算相关观测，而不是通用天气 API 数值。",
|
|
summary:
|
|
"预测市场用户关心的是合约最终结算数字。因此 PolyWeather 把官方站、机场和运营方特定来源行为放在泛消费者天气均值之上。",
|
|
sections: [
|
|
{
|
|
heading: "为什么通用天气值不够",
|
|
body:
|
|
"消费者天气应用经常平滑站点数据，或展示城市级近似值。市场结算可能依赖更窄的官方来源。",
|
|
bullets: [
|
|
"一个城市标签可能隐藏多个日高温不同的站点。",
|
|
"机场 METAR 可能比公开摘要更新更快，但未必是最终结算源。",
|
|
"官方来源修订往往比平滑的预报曲线更重要。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
heading: "PolyWeather 展示什么",
|
|
body:
|
|
"终端会拆开来源标签、观测时间戳、预报模型和新鲜度状态，让用户审计数字形成路径。",
|
|
bullets: [
|
|
"图表中的结算源标签和站点上下文。",
|
|
"来源新鲜度、缓存策略和 SSE patch 可见性。",
|
|
"DEB 预报上下文与实时观测并列展示，而不是替代观测。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
const SOURCE_PAGE_LOCALIZATIONS: Record<string, Partial<SourcePage>> = {
|
|
mgm: {
|
|
title: "MGM 天气来源",
|
|
description: "PolyWeather 针对土耳其 MGM 观测的来源说明，用于安卡拉类温度市场分析。",
|
|
operator: "土耳其国家气象局",
|
|
coverage: "土耳其官方站网络，包含安卡拉市场上下文。",
|
|
cadence: "来源频率会随站点和发布路径变化；终端仍需要检查新鲜度。",
|
|
settlementUse: "当安卡拉市场引用土耳其官方观测时，作为主要官方来源族使用。",
|
|
reliabilityNotes: [
|
|
"单点尖峰在接受前应与相邻时间戳比对。",
|
|
"官方摘要可能滞后于原始点位观测。",
|
|
"数值突然出现时，应检查缓存和 SSE replay 状态。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
metar: {
|
|
title: "METAR 机场观测",
|
|
description: "PolyWeather 针对机场 METAR 观测的来源说明，用作温度市场工作流中的快速证据。",
|
|
operator: "机场天气观测网络",
|
|
coverage: "覆盖受支持市场的机场关联观测。",
|
|
cadence: "通常为小时级或更短，取决于机场和发布行为。",
|
|
settlementUse: "适合快速证据和机场关联合约；仍必须与合约的精确结算源校验。",
|
|
reliabilityNotes: [
|
|
"METAR 可能比官方日摘要更新更快。",
|
|
"机场暴露环境可能不同于市区官方站。",
|
|
"临近收盘的晚些 METAR 周期可能改变最高温判断。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
ecmwf: {
|
|
title: "ECMWF 模型指引",
|
|
description: "PolyWeather 针对 ECMWF 模型指引的来源说明，它是 DEB 融合预报的一个输入。",
|
|
operator: "欧洲中期天气预报中心",
|
|
coverage: "全球数值天气预报指引。",
|
|
cadence: "模型运行频率取决于产品和摄取时间。",
|
|
settlementUse: "仅用于预报上下文，不替代实时官方观测的结算解释。",
|
|
reliabilityNotes: [
|
|
"模型偏暖或偏冷都应由实时观测验证。",
|
|
"当来源证据尚未稳定时，模型运行间变化可以提供参考。",
|
|
"模型分歧应与结算源数据并列展示，而不是凌驾其上。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
hko: {
|
|
title: "HKO 官方观测",
|
|
description: "PolyWeather 针对香港天文台观测的来源说明，用于香港市场分析。",
|
|
operator: "香港天文台",
|
|
coverage: "香港官方观测网络和站点级上下文。",
|
|
cadence: "观测产品频率不同；终端仍应检查来源新鲜度。",
|
|
settlementUse: "作为香港站点和城市市场解释中的官方来源族使用。",
|
|
reliabilityNotes: [
|
|
"站点选择可能显著改变最高温读数。",
|
|
"机场观测应与更广泛的 HKO 网络读数分开解释。",
|
|
"湿度、风和午后短时日照会影响最终高温。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
noaa: {
|
|
title: "NOAA 天气上下文",
|
|
description: "PolyWeather 针对 NOAA 上下文的来源说明，用于校验美国天气市场观测和摘要。",
|
|
operator: "美国国家海洋和大气管理局",
|
|
coverage: "美国官方天气观测、摘要和上下文产品。",
|
|
cadence: "频率取决于产品族和站点报告行为。",
|
|
settlementUse: "当合约规则引用 NOAA/NWS 数据时，用于审计和解释美国官方观测。",
|
|
reliabilityNotes: [
|
|
"官方摘要可能晚于快速机场观测到达。",
|
|
"日高温解释应匹配合约的站点和时区规则。",
|
|
"使用 NOAA 上下文确认机场观测是否具代表性。",
|
|
],
|
|
},
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
export function localizeBrief(brief: PublicBrief, locale: LandingLocale): PublicBrief {
|
|
if (locale === "en-US") return brief;
|
|
const localized = BRIEF_LOCALIZATIONS[`${brief.city}:${brief.date}`] || {};
|
|
return {
|
|
...brief,
|
|
...localized,
|
|
checkpoints: localized.checkpoints || brief.checkpoints,
|
|
methodologySlugs: localized.methodologySlugs || brief.methodologySlugs,
|
|
signals: localized.signals || brief.signals,
|
|
sourceSlugs: localized.sourceSlugs || brief.sourceSlugs,
|
|
};
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function localizeBriefs(locale: LandingLocale) {
|
|
return PUBLIC_BRIEFS.map((brief) => localizeBrief(brief, locale));
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function localizeMethodologyPage(page: MethodologyPage, locale: LandingLocale): MethodologyPage {
|
|
if (locale === "en-US") return page;
|
|
const localized = METHODOLOGY_PAGE_LOCALIZATIONS[page.slug] || {};
|
|
return {
|
|
...page,
|
|
...localized,
|
|
sections: localized.sections || page.sections,
|
|
};
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function localizeSourcePage(page: SourcePage, locale: LandingLocale): SourcePage {
|
|
if (locale === "en-US") return page;
|
|
const localized = SOURCE_PAGE_LOCALIZATIONS[page.slug] || {};
|
|
return {
|
|
...page,
|
|
...localized,
|
|
reliabilityNotes: localized.reliabilityNotes || page.reliabilityNotes,
|
|
relatedMethodologySlugs: localized.relatedMethodologySlugs || page.relatedMethodologySlugs,
|
|
};
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function briefPath(brief: PublicBrief) {
|
|
return `/briefs/${brief.city}/${brief.date}`;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function methodologyPath(page: MethodologyPage) {
|
|
return `/methodology/${page.slug}`;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function sourcePath(page: SourcePage) {
|
|
return `/sources/${page.slug}`;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function getBrief(city: string, date: string) {
|
|
return PUBLIC_BRIEFS.find((brief) => brief.city === city && brief.date === date);
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function getMethodologyPage(slug: string) {
|
|
return METHODOLOGY_PAGES.find((page) => page.slug === slug);
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function getSourcePage(slug: string) {
|
|
return SOURCE_PAGES.find((page) => page.slug === slug);
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export function absolutePublicUrl(pathname: string) {
|
|
return `${PUBLIC_CONTENT_BASE_URL}${pathname}`;
|
|
}
|