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PolyWeather/artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json
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2026-03-20 21:30:52 +08:00

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{
"version": "emos-20260320132525",
"trained_at": "2026-03-20T13:25:25.836021+00:00",
"global": {
"mu": {
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"raw_mu_coef": 2.80583627,
"deb_coef": -0.06819634,
"ens_median_coef": -1.81560215,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0
},
"sigma": {
"intercept": 0.67509915,
"raw_sigma_coef": 0.14431833,
"spread_coef": 0.14431833,
"peak_flag_coef": 0.0,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0
}
},
"sigma_constraints": {
"min_ratio": 0.85,
"max_ratio": 1.35,
"absolute_min": 0.25,
"absolute_max": 3.0
},
"selection_guardrails": {
"max_mae_increase": 0.02,
"max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01,
"max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05
},
"blending": {
"alpha_mu": 0.0,
"alpha_sigma": 0.0
},
"cities": {
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"mu_bias": 0.566273,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.875
},
"london": {
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"mu_bias": 0.489961,
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"confidence": 0.75
},
"new york": {
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"mu_bias": 1.852451,
"sigma_scale": 0.830444,
"confidence": 0.5
},
"paris": {
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"mu_bias": 0.308599,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.875
},
"seoul": {
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"mu_bias": -1.486024,
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"confidence": 0.75
},
"toronto": {
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"mu_bias": -0.734395,
"sigma_scale": 1.656751,
"confidence": 0.625
},
"buenos aires": {
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"mu_bias": -1.753334,
"sigma_scale": 1.831739,
"confidence": 0.625
},
"wellington": {
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"mu_bias": 0.350757,
"sigma_scale": 1.377974,
"confidence": 0.75
},
"chicago": {
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"mu_bias": 3.01062,
"sigma_scale": 0.825575,
"confidence": 0.5
},
"sao paulo": {
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"mu_bias": 1.632457,
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"confidence": 0.625
},
"dallas": {
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"mu_bias": 3.77714,
"sigma_scale": 0.796874,
"confidence": 0.5
},
"miami": {
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"mu_bias": -4.868741,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.625
},
"atlanta": {
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"mu_bias": -7.648823,
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"confidence": 0.625
},
"seattle": {
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"mu_bias": 4.058619,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.5
},
"lucknow": {
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"mu_bias": 3.257609,
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"confidence": 0.5
},
"munich": {
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"mu_bias": -0.780811,
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"confidence": 0.75
},
"hong kong": {
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"mu_bias": -0.492675,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"taipei": {
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"mu_bias": 1.462462,
"sigma_scale": 1.132834,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"milan": {
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"mu_bias": -2.729203,
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"confidence": 0.375
},
"warsaw": {
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"mu_bias": 0.349319,
"sigma_scale": 1.337949,
"confidence": 0.375
}
},
"metrics": {
"sample_count": 105,
"mean_crps": 2.923823,
"legacy_mean_crps": 2.793938,
"legacy_mean_mae": 2.721143,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.695238,
"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.775463,
"selected_mean_crps": 2.700275,
"selected_mean_mae": 2.721143,
"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.695238,
"selected_bucket_brier": 0.765459,
"selected_score": 4.003626,
"legacy_score": 4.104792,
"filled_actual_from_history": 2,
"settlement_history_city_count": 30
},
"source": "artifacts\\probability_calibration\\default.json"
}