2569718930@qq.com
198 lines
6.2 KiB
Python
198 lines
6.2 KiB
Python
# Polymarket 城市温度市场 - 数据偏差风险档案
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# 基于 METAR 机场站与市区实际温度的系统性差异
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CITY_RISK_PROFILES = {
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# 🔴 高危城市 - 数据偏差大，容易误判
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"seoul": {
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"risk_level": "high",
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"risk_emoji": "🔴",
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"icao": "RKSI",
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"airport_name": "仁川国际机场",
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"distance_km": 48.8,
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"elevation_diff_m": 0,
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"typical_bias_f": 5.8,
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"bias_direction": "机场靠海偏暖，市区内陆更冷",
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"warning": "距离太远，根本不是同一个天气区",
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"season_notes": None,
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},
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"chicago": {
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"risk_level": "high",
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"risk_emoji": "🔴",
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"icao": "KORD",
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"airport_name": "O'Hare 国际机场",
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"distance_km": 25.3,
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"elevation_diff_m": 42,
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"typical_bias_f": 4.0,
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"bias_direction": "密歇根湖效应：风向变化时湖边vs内陆可差10°F+",
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"warning": "冬天温差最不稳定",
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"season_notes": "冬季",
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},
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# 🟡 中危城市 - 存在系统偏差，需注意
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"ankara": {
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"risk_level": "medium",
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"risk_emoji": "🟡",
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"icao": "LTAC",
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"airport_name": "Esenboğa 机场",
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"distance_km": 24.5,
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"elevation_diff_m": 65,
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"typical_bias_f": 2.0,
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"bias_direction": "机场海拔更高",
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"warning": "内陆高原城市，昼夜温差大（可达15°C+）",
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"season_notes": "下午最高温时偏差会放大",
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},
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"london": {
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"risk_level": "low",
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"risk_emoji": "🟢",
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"icao": "EGLC",
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"airport_name": "London City 机场",
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"distance_km": 12.7,
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"elevation_diff_m": 4,
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"typical_bias_f": 0.5,
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"bias_direction": "河水调节效应：泰晤士河 Royal Docks 使得夏天偏凉，冬天偏暖",
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"warning": "极端天气日（热浪/寒潮）偏差会显著放大",
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"season_notes": None,
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},
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"dallas": {
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"risk_level": "medium",
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"risk_emoji": "🟡",
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"icao": "KDAL",
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"airport_name": "Dallas Love Field 机场",
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"distance_km": 11.2,
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"elevation_diff_m": 0,
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"typical_bias_f": 1.1,
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"bias_direction": "比 DFW 更接近市中心，数据更准",
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"warning": "城市热岛效应在夏季午后会使温度略高于郊区",
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"season_notes": None,
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},
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"buenos aires": {
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"risk_level": "medium",
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"risk_emoji": "🟡",
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"icao": "SAEZ",
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"airport_name": "Ezeiza 国际机场",
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"distance_km": 28.1,
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"elevation_diff_m": 0,
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"typical_bias_f": 1.2,
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"bias_direction": "夏天城区可比郊区高2-3°C",
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"warning": "距离远但地形平坦，偏差稳定可预测",
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"season_notes": "夏季",
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},
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# 🟢 低危城市 - 数据相对靠谱
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"toronto": {
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"risk_level": "low",
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"risk_emoji": "🟢",
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"icao": "CYYZ",
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"airport_name": "Pearson 国际机场",
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"distance_km": 19.6,
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"elevation_diff_m": 0,
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"typical_bias_f": 0.3,
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"bias_direction": None,
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"warning": "冬季湖效应偶尔炸裂",
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"season_notes": "冬季",
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},
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"new york": {
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"risk_level": "low",
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"risk_emoji": "🟢",
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"icao": "KLGA",
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"airport_name": "LaGuardia 机场",
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"distance_km": 14.5,
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"elevation_diff_m": 0,
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"typical_bias_f": 0.7,
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"bias_direction": "相比 JFK 更靠近曼哈顿",
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"warning": "东河水汽可能在春季产生微小的降温效果",
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"season_notes": None,
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},
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"seattle": {
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"risk_level": "low",
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"risk_emoji": "🟢",
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"icao": "KSEA",
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"airport_name": "Sea-Tac 国际机场",
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"distance_km": 17.4,
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"elevation_diff_m": 0,
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"typical_bias_f": 0.6,
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"bias_direction": "微气候差异存在但较小",
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"warning": None,
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"season_notes": None,
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},
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"atlanta": {
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"risk_level": "low",
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"risk_emoji": "🟢",
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"icao": "KATL",
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"airport_name": "Hartsfield-Jackson 机场",
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"distance_km": 12.6,
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"elevation_diff_m": 0,
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"typical_bias_f": 0.5,
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"bias_direction": None,
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"warning": None,
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"season_notes": None,
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},
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"miami": {
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"risk_level": "low",
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"risk_emoji": "🟢",
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"icao": "KMIA",
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"airport_name": "Miami 国际机场",
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"distance_km": 10.3,
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"elevation_diff_m": 0,
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"typical_bias_f": 0.3,
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"bias_direction": None,
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"warning": None,
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"season_notes": None,
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},
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"wellington": {
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"risk_level": "low",
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"risk_emoji": "🟢",
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"icao": "NZWN",
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"airport_name": "Wellington 机场",
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"distance_km": 5.1,
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"elevation_diff_m": 0,
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"typical_bias_f": 0.2,
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"bias_direction": None,
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"warning": "12城最近，数据最靠谱",
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"season_notes": None,
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},
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}
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def get_city_risk_profile(city_name: str) -> dict:
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"""获取城市的风险档案"""
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city_lower = city_name.lower().strip()
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city_key = city_lower
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return CITY_RISK_PROFILES.get(city_key)
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def format_risk_warning(profile: dict, temp_symbol: str) -> str:
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"""格式化风险警告信息"""
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if not profile:
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return ""
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lines = []
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# 风险等级标题
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risk_labels = {
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"high": "高危",
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"medium": "中危",
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"low": "低危"
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}
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risk_label = risk_labels.get(profile["risk_level"], "未知")
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lines.append(f"⚠️ <b>数据偏差风险</b>: {profile['risk_emoji']} {risk_label}")
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# 机场信息
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lines.append(f" 📍 机场: {profile['airport_name']} ({profile['icao']})")
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lines.append(f" 📏 距市区: {profile['distance_km']}km")
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# 典型偏差
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if profile["typical_bias_f"] >= 1.0:
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lines.append(f" 📊 偏差: ±{profile['typical_bias_f']}{temp_symbol}")
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# 偏差方向说明
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if profile["bias_direction"]:
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lines.append(f" 💡 {profile['bias_direction']}")
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# 特别警告
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if profile["warning"]:
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lines.append(f" 🚨 {profile['warning']}")
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return "\n".join(lines)
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