Files
PolyWeather/artifacts/probability_calibration/rollout_report.json
T
2026-03-20 23:00:07 +08:00

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{
"evaluation_report_path": "E:\\web\\PolyWeather\\artifacts\\probability_calibration\\evaluation_report.json",
"shadow_report_path": "E:\\web\\PolyWeather\\artifacts\\probability_calibration\\shadow_report.json",
"evaluation_report_exists": true,
"shadow_report_exists": true,
"decision": {
"decision": "hold",
"ready_for_primary": false,
"summary": "当前指标不足以切换 emos_primary,应继续保持 shadow。",
"thresholds": {
"evaluation_min_samples": 80,
"shadow_min_samples": 50,
"max_delta_mae": 0.05,
"min_delta_crps": -0.02,
"min_delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"max_delta_bucket_brier_promote": 0.02,
"max_delta_bucket_brier_observe": 0.15
},
"evaluation": {
"sample_count": 105,
"delta_crps": -0.093663,
"delta_mae": 0.0,
"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"shadow": {
"sample_count": 103,
"delta_mae": 0.012708,
"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.009709,
"delta_bucket_brier": 0.293835
},
"blocking_reasons": [
"shadow bucket brier 退化超限:delta=0.293835"
],
"worst_shadow_regressions": [
{
"city": "dallas",
"samples": 4,
"delta_mae": 0.114807,
"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"delta_bucket_brier": 0.778678
},
{
"city": "chicago",
"samples": 4,
"delta_mae": 0.075265,
"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"delta_bucket_brier": 0.746156
},
{
"city": "seattle",
"samples": 4,
"delta_mae": 0.11262,
"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"delta_bucket_brier": 0.692003
},
{
"city": "atlanta",
"samples": 4,
"delta_mae": 0.293028,
"delta_bucket_hit_rate": -0.25,
"delta_bucket_brier": 0.601425
},
{
"city": "miami",
"samples": 4,
"delta_mae": 0.241559,
"delta_bucket_hit_rate": -0.5,
"delta_bucket_brier": 0.478245
}
]
}
}