{ "version": "emos-20260402162744", "trained_at": "2026-04-02T16:27:44.114836+00:00", "global": { "mu": { "intercept": 1.54512641, "raw_mu_coef": 2.96105052, "deb_coef": -1.53260815, "ens_median_coef": -0.72849343, "max_so_far_gap_coef": 9.52557689 }, "sigma": { "intercept": 0.67432479, "raw_sigma_coef": 0.6936692, "spread_coef": 0.08877484, "peak_flag_coef": -0.58374835, "max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.8172477 } }, "sigma_constraints": { "min_ratio": 0.85, "max_ratio": 1.35, "absolute_min": 0.25, "absolute_max": 3.0 }, "selection_guardrails": { "max_mae_increase": 0.02, "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01, "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05 }, "blending": { "alpha_mu": 0.0, "alpha_sigma": 0.05 }, "cities": { "ankara": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": 1.271844, "sigma_scale": 1.477644, "confidence": 0.375 }, "hong kong": { "samples": 4, "mu_bias": 1.32008, "sigma_scale": 1.04023, "confidence": 0.5 }, "milan": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": -3.935178, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.375 }, "shanghai": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": 1.810495, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.375 }, "taipei": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": 3.577828, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.375 }, "warsaw": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": -0.625333, "sigma_scale": 1.25968, "confidence": 0.375 } }, "metrics": { "sample_count": 54, "mean_crps": 3.792563, "legacy_mean_crps": 4.308029, "legacy_mean_mae": 4.51037, "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.537037, "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.833294, "selected_mean_crps": 4.249828, "selected_mean_mae": 4.51037, "selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.555556, "selected_bucket_brier": 0.831872, "selected_score": 5.991436, "legacy_score": 6.078481, "filled_actual_from_history": 0, "settlement_history_city_count": 30 }, "source": "artifacts\\probability_calibration\\default.json" }