{
  "evaluation_report_path": "E:\\web\\PolyWeather\\artifacts\\probability_calibration\\evaluation_report.json",
  "shadow_report_path": "E:\\web\\PolyWeather\\artifacts\\probability_calibration\\shadow_report.json",
  "evaluation_report_exists": true,
  "shadow_report_exists": true,
  "decision": {
    "decision": "hold",
    "ready_for_primary": false,
    "summary": "当前指标不足以切换 emos_primary，应继续保持 shadow。",
    "thresholds": {
      "evaluation_min_samples": 80,
      "shadow_min_samples": 50,
      "max_delta_mae": 0.05,
      "min_delta_crps": -0.02,
      "min_delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
      "max_delta_bucket_brier_promote": 0.02,
      "max_delta_bucket_brier_observe": 0.15
    },
    "evaluation": {
      "sample_count": 105,
      "delta_crps": -0.093663,
      "delta_mae": 0.0,
      "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
    },
    "shadow": {
      "sample_count": 103,
      "delta_mae": 0.012708,
      "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.009709,
      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.293835
    },
    "blocking_reasons": [
      "shadow bucket brier 退化超限：delta=0.293835"
    ],
    "worst_shadow_regressions": [
      {
        "city": "dallas",
        "samples": 4,
        "delta_mae": 0.114807,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.778678
      },
      {
        "city": "chicago",
        "samples": 4,
        "delta_mae": 0.075265,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.746156
      },
      {
        "city": "seattle",
        "samples": 4,
        "delta_mae": 0.11262,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.692003
      },
      {
        "city": "atlanta",
        "samples": 4,
        "delta_mae": 0.293028,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": -0.25,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.601425
      },
      {
        "city": "miami",
        "samples": 4,
        "delta_mae": 0.241559,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": -0.5,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.478245
      }
    ]
  }
}