{
  "evaluation_report_path": "E:\\web\\PolyWeather\\artifacts\\probability_calibration\\evaluation_report.json",
  "shadow_report_path": "E:\\web\\PolyWeather\\artifacts\\probability_calibration\\shadow_report.json",
  "evaluation_report_exists": true,
  "shadow_report_exists": true,
  "decision": {
    "decision": "hold",
    "ready_for_primary": false,
    "summary": "当前指标不足以切换 emos_primary，应继续保持 shadow。",
    "thresholds": {
      "evaluation_min_samples": 80,
      "shadow_min_samples": 50,
      "max_delta_mae": 0.05,
      "min_delta_crps": -0.02,
      "min_delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
      "max_delta_bucket_brier_promote": 0.02,
      "max_delta_bucket_brier_observe": 0.15
    },
    "evaluation": {
      "sample_count": 54,
      "delta_crps": -0.086732,
      "delta_mae": 0.0,
      "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
    },
    "shadow": {
      "sample_count": 48,
      "delta_mae": 0.0,
      "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.041666,
      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.123252
    },
    "blocking_reasons": [
      "离线评估样本不足：54 < 80",
      "shadow 样本不足：48 < 50",
      "shadow bucket brier 退化超限：delta=0.123252"
    ],
    "worst_shadow_regressions": [
      {
        "city": "dallas",
        "samples": 1,
        "delta_mae": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.792585
      },
      {
        "city": "chicago",
        "samples": 1,
        "delta_mae": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.791878
      },
      {
        "city": "seattle",
        "samples": 1,
        "delta_mae": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.61609
      },
      {
        "city": "wellington",
        "samples": 2,
        "delta_mae": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.509203
      },
      {
        "city": "tel aviv",
        "samples": 2,
        "delta_mae": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
        "delta_bucket_brier": 0.439879
      }
    ]
  }
}