import requests import re import time from typing import Optional, Dict, List from datetime import datetime, timedelta from loguru import logger class WeatherDataCollector: """ Multi-source weather data collector Supports: - OpenWeatherMap (free, fast updates) - Weather Underground (Polymarket settlement source) - Visual Crossing (rich historical data) - NOAA Aviation Weather (METAR - airport observations) """ # Polymarket 12 个天气市场对应的 ICAO 机场代码 # 这些是 Weather Underground 结算源使用的气象站 CITY_TO_ICAO = { "seattle": "KSEA", # Seattle-Tacoma Airport "london": "EGLC", # London City Airport "dallas": "KDAL", # Dallas Love Field "miami": "KMIA", # Miami International "atlanta": "KATL", # Hartsfield-Jackson "chicago": "KORD", # O'Hare International "new york": "KLGA", # LaGuardia Airport "nyc": "KLGA", # Alias "seoul": "RKSI", # Incheon International "ankara": "LTAC", # Esenboğa International "toronto": "CYYZ", # Toronto Pearson "wellington": "NZWN", # Wellington International "buenos aires": "SAEZ", # Ezeiza International "paris": "LFPG", # Charles de Gaulle } def __init__(self, config: dict): self.config = config weather_cfg = config.get("weather", {}) self.wunderground_key = weather_cfg.get("wunderground_api_key") self.meteoblue_key = weather_cfg.get("meteoblue_api_key") self.timeout = 30 # 增加超时以支持高延迟 VPS self.session = requests.Session() # 设置代理 proxy = config.get("proxy") if proxy: if not proxy.startswith("http"): proxy = f"http://{proxy}" self.session.proxies = {"http": proxy, "https": proxy} logger.info(f"正在使用天气数据代理: {proxy}") logger.info("天气数据采集器初始化完成。") def fetch_from_openweather(self, city: str, country: str = None) -> Optional[Dict]: """ Fetch current weather and forecast from OpenWeatherMap Args: city: City name country: Country code (optional) Returns: dict: Weather data """ if not getattr(self, "openweather_key", None): return None query = f"{city},{country}" if country else city try: # Current weather current_url = "https://api.openweathermap.org/data/2.5/weather" current_response = self.session.get( current_url, params={"q": query, "appid": self.openweather_key, "units": "metric"}, timeout=self.timeout, ) current_response.raise_for_status() current_data = current_response.json() # 5-day forecast forecast_url = "https://api.openweathermap.org/data/2.5/forecast" forecast_response = self.session.get( forecast_url, params={"q": query, "appid": self.openweather_key, "units": "metric"}, timeout=self.timeout, ) forecast_response.raise_for_status() forecast_data = forecast_response.json() return { "source": "openweathermap", "timestamp": datetime.utcnow().isoformat(), "current": { "temp": current_data["main"]["temp"], "feels_like": current_data["main"]["feels_like"], "temp_min": current_data["main"]["temp_min"], "temp_max": current_data["main"]["temp_max"], "humidity": current_data["main"]["humidity"], "pressure": current_data["main"]["pressure"], "wind_speed": current_data["wind"]["speed"], "clouds": current_data["clouds"]["all"], "description": current_data["weather"][0]["description"], }, "forecast": self._parse_openweather_forecast(forecast_data), } except requests.exceptions.RequestException as e: logger.error(f"OpenWeatherMap request failed: {e}") return None def _parse_openweather_forecast(self, data: dict) -> List[Dict]: """Parse OpenWeatherMap forecast data""" forecasts = [] for item in data.get("list", []): forecasts.append( { "datetime": item["dt_txt"], "temp": item["main"]["temp"], "temp_min": item["main"]["temp_min"], "temp_max": item["main"]["temp_max"], "humidity": item["main"]["humidity"], "description": item["weather"][0]["description"], } ) return forecasts def fetch_from_visualcrossing( self, city: str, start_date: str = None, end_date: str = None ) -> Optional[Dict]: """ Fetch historical weather data from Visual Crossing Args: city: City name start_date: Start date (YYYY-MM-DD) end_date: End date (YYYY-MM-DD) Returns: dict: Historical weather data """ if not getattr(self, "visualcrossing_key", None): return None # Default to last 30 days if no dates provided if not end_date: end_date = datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d") if not start_date: start_date = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=30)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") try: url = f"https://weather.visualcrossing.com/VisualCrossingWebServices/rest/services/timeline/{city}/{start_date}/{end_date}" response = self.session.get( url, params={ "unitGroup": "metric", "key": self.visualcrossing_key, "contentType": "json", "include": "days", }, timeout=self.timeout, ) response.raise_for_status() data = response.json() return { "source": "visualcrossing", "timestamp": datetime.utcnow().isoformat(), "location": data.get("resolvedAddress"), "timezone": data.get("timezone"), "days": [ { "date": day["datetime"], "temp_max": day.get("tempmax"), "temp_min": day.get("tempmin"), "temp_avg": day.get("temp"), "humidity": day.get("humidity"), "precip": day.get("precip"), "conditions": day.get("conditions"), } for day in data.get("days", []) ], } except requests.exceptions.RequestException as e: logger.error(f"Visual Crossing request failed: {e}") return None def get_icao_code(self, city: str) -> Optional[str]: """ 根据城市名获取对应的 ICAO 机场代码 """ normalized = city.lower().strip() # 直接匹配 if normalized in self.CITY_TO_ICAO: return self.CITY_TO_ICAO[normalized] # 模糊匹配 for key, icao in self.CITY_TO_ICAO.items(): if key in normalized or normalized in key: return icao return None def fetch_metar( self, city: str, use_fahrenheit: bool = False, utc_offset: int = 0 ) -> Optional[Dict]: """ 从 NOAA Aviation Weather Center 获取 METAR 航空气象数据 这是 Polymarket 天气市场的结算数据源 (Weather Underground) 使用的相同气象站 Args: city: 城市名称 use_fahrenheit: 是否转换为华氏度 Returns: dict: METAR 数据,包含温度、露点、风速等 """ icao = self.get_icao_code(city) if not icao: logger.warning(f"未找到城市 {city} 对应的 ICAO 代码") return None try: # NOAA Aviation Weather API (免费,无需 Key) url = "https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar" params = { "ids": icao, "format": "json", "hours": 24, # 抓取 24 小时数据以计算今日最高 "_t": int(time.time()), } response = self.session.get( url, params=params, headers={"Cache-Control": "no-cache", "Pragma": "no-cache"}, timeout=self.timeout, ) response.raise_for_status() data = response.json() if not data: return None # 1. 取最新的观测作为当前状态 latest = data[0] temp_c = latest.get("temp") dewp_c = latest.get("dewp") # 从 rawOb 中提取真实观测时间(比 reportTime 更准确,reportTime 会被取整) # rawOb 格式: "METAR EGLC 271150Z AUTO ..." → "271150Z" → 27日11:50 UTC def _parse_rawob_time(obs): """从 rawOb 中提取精确的 UTC 观测时间""" raw = obs.get("rawOb", "") import re as _re m = _re.search(r"\b(\d{2})(\d{2})(\d{2})Z\b", raw) if m: _day, hour, minute = ( int(m.group(1)), int(m.group(2)), int(m.group(3)), ) # 用 reportTime 的日期部分 + rawOb 的时分 fallback = obs.get("reportTime", "") try: clean = fallback.replace(" ", "T") if not clean.endswith("Z"): clean += "Z" base_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(clean.replace("Z", "+00:00")) result = base_dt.replace(hour=hour, minute=minute, second=0) # 处理跨日(如 rawOb 是23:50但 reportTime 已经是次日00:00) if result > base_dt + timedelta(hours=2): result -= timedelta(days=1) return result except Exception: pass # fallback 到 reportTime fallback = obs.get("reportTime", "") try: clean = fallback.replace(" ", "T") if not clean.endswith("Z"): clean += "Z" return datetime.fromisoformat(clean.replace("Z", "+00:00")) except Exception: return None obs_dt = _parse_rawob_time(latest) obs_time = ( obs_dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S.000Z") if obs_dt else latest.get("reportTime", "") ) # 2. 精确计算"当地今天"的最高温 from datetime import timezone, timedelta now_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc) local_now = now_utc + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) local_midnight = local_now.replace( hour=0, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0 ) utc_midnight = local_midnight - timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) max_so_far_c = -999 max_temp_time = None for obs in data: obs_dt_iter = _parse_rawob_time(obs) if obs_dt_iter is None: continue try: if obs_dt_iter >= utc_midnight: t = obs.get("temp") if t is not None and t > max_so_far_c: max_so_far_c = t local_report = obs_dt_iter + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) max_temp_time = local_report.strftime("%H:%M") except Exception: continue # 3. 提取最近 4 条报文的多维数据(温度 + 风/云/压强,用于趋势和 shock_score) recent_temps_raw = [] # [(local_time_str, temp_c), ...] recent_obs_raw = [] # [{time, temp, wdir, wspd, clouds, altim}, ...] today_obs_raw = [] # [(local_time_str, temp_c), ...] 今天全部观测 cloud_rank_map = { "CLR": 0, "SKC": 0, "FEW": 1, "SCT": 2, "BKN": 3, "OVC": 4, } for i_obs, obs in enumerate(data): # data 已按时间倒序 obs_temp = obs.get("temp") obs_dt_iter = _parse_rawob_time(obs) if obs_temp is not None and obs_dt_iter: local_rt = obs_dt_iter + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) time_str = local_rt.strftime("%H:%M") # 收集今天全部观测点(用于图表叠加) if obs_dt_iter >= utc_midnight: today_obs_raw.append((time_str, obs_temp)) # 只取前4条用于趋势分析和 shock_score if i_obs < 4: recent_temps_raw.append((time_str, obs_temp)) clouds = obs.get("clouds", []) max_cloud_rank = 0 for c in clouds: rank = cloud_rank_map.get(c.get("cover", ""), 0) if rank > max_cloud_rank: max_cloud_rank = rank recent_obs_raw.append( { "time": time_str, "temp": obs_temp, "wdir": obs.get("wdir"), "wspd": obs.get("wspd"), "cloud_rank": max_cloud_rank, # 0~4 "altim": obs.get("altim"), } ) # 转换为单位 if use_fahrenheit: temp = temp_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if temp_c is not None else None max_so_far = max_so_far_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if max_so_far_c > -900 else None dewp = dewp_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if dewp_c is not None else None unit = "fahrenheit" recent_temps = [ (t, round(v * 9 / 5 + 32, 1)) for t, v in recent_temps_raw ] today_obs = [ (t, round(v * 9 / 5 + 32, 1)) for t, v in today_obs_raw ] else: temp = temp_c max_so_far = max_so_far_c if max_so_far_c > -900 else None dewp = dewp_c unit = "celsius" recent_temps = [(t, v) for t, v in recent_temps_raw] today_obs = [(t, v) for t, v in today_obs_raw] result = { "source": "metar", "icao": icao, "station_name": latest.get("name", icao), "timestamp": datetime.utcnow().isoformat(), "observation_time": obs_time, "current": { "temp": round(temp, 1) if temp is not None else None, "max_temp_so_far": round(max_so_far, 1) if max_so_far is not None else None, "max_temp_time": max_temp_time, "dewpoint": round(dewp, 1) if dewp is not None else None, "humidity": latest.get("rh"), "wind_speed_kt": latest.get("wspd"), "wind_dir": latest.get("wdir"), "visibility_mi": latest.get("visib"), "wx_desc": latest.get("wxString"), "altimeter": latest.get("altim"), "clouds": latest.get("clouds", []), }, "recent_temps": recent_temps, # 最近4条: [("15:00", 5), ("14:20", 5), ...] "today_obs": today_obs, # 今天全部观测: [("00:00", 3), ("01:00", 2.5), ...] "recent_obs": recent_obs_raw, # 最近4条多维数据(风/云/压强) "unit": unit, } logger.info( f"✈️ METAR {icao}: {temp:.1f}°{'F' if use_fahrenheit else 'C'} " f"(obs: {obs_time})" ) return result except requests.exceptions.RequestException as e: logger.error(f"METAR 请求失败 ({icao}): {e}") return None except (KeyError, IndexError, TypeError) as e: logger.error(f"METAR 数据解析失败 ({icao}): {e}") return None def fetch_from_mgm(self, istno: str) -> Optional[Dict]: """ 从土耳其气象局 (MGM) 获取实时数据和预测 (由用户提供其内部 API) """ base_url = "https://servis.mgm.gov.tr/web" # 必须带 Origin,否则会被反爬拦截 headers = { "Origin": "https://www.mgm.gov.tr", "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/120.0.0.0 Safari/537.36", } results = {} try: # 1. 实时数据 (添加时间戳防止 CDN 缓存) import time obs_resp = self.session.get( f"{base_url}/sondurumlar?istno={istno}&_={int(time.time() * 1000)}", headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout, ) if obs_resp.status_code == 200: data = obs_resp.json() if data: latest = data[0] if isinstance(data, list) else data # MGM 数据字段映射 # ruzgarHiz 实测为 km/h,转为 m/s 需要除以 3.6 ruz_hiz_kmh = latest.get("ruzgarHiz", 0) # MGM 返回 -9999 表示数据缺失,需要过滤 def _valid(v): return v is not None and v > -9000 results["current"] = { "temp": latest.get("sicaklik") if _valid(latest.get("sicaklik")) else None, "feels_like": latest.get("hissedilenSicaklik") if _valid(latest.get("hissedilenSicaklik")) else None, "humidity": latest.get("nem") if _valid(latest.get("nem")) else None, "wind_speed_ms": round(ruz_hiz_kmh / 3.6, 1) if _valid(ruz_hiz_kmh) else None, "wind_speed_kt": round(ruz_hiz_kmh / 1.852, 1) if _valid(ruz_hiz_kmh) else None, "wind_dir": latest.get("ruzgarYon") if _valid(latest.get("ruzgarYon")) else None, "rain_24h": latest.get("toplamYagis") if _valid(latest.get("toplamYagis")) else None, "pressure": latest.get("aktuelBasinc") if _valid(latest.get("aktuelBasinc")) else None, "cloud_cover": latest.get("kapalilik"), # 0-8 八分位云量 "mgm_max_temp": latest.get("maxSicaklik") if _valid(latest.get("maxSicaklik")) else None, "time": latest.get("veriZamani"), "station_name": latest.get("istasyonAd") or latest.get("adi") or latest.get("merkezAd") or "Ankara Bölge", } # 2. 每日预报(尝试两个可能的 API 路径) forecast_urls = [ f"{base_url}/tahminler/gunluk?istno={istno}", f"https://servis.mgm.gov.tr/api/tahminler/gunluk?istno={istno}", ] for forecast_url in forecast_urls: try: daily_resp = self.session.get( forecast_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout ) if daily_resp.status_code == 200: forecasts = daily_resp.json() if forecasts and isinstance(forecasts, list): # Store today extra clearly today = forecasts[0] high_val = today.get("enYuksekGun1") low_val = today.get("enDusukGun1") if high_val is not None: results["today_high"] = high_val results["today_low"] = low_val logger.info(f"📋 MGM 每日预报: 今天的最高温 {high_val}°C") # Store all 5 days for multi_model_daily results["daily_forecasts"] = {} for i, day in enumerate(forecasts[:5]): d_high = day.get("enYuksekGun1") if d_high is not None: # Calculate date (today + offset) target_date = (datetime.now() + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") results["daily_forecasts"][target_date] = d_high break else: # 记录所有可用字段,方便调试 available_keys = [ k for k in today.keys() if "yuksek" in k.lower() or "sicaklik" in k.lower() or "gun" in k.lower() ] logger.warning( f"MGM 每日预报: enYuksekGun1 为空,可用字段: {available_keys}" ) else: logger.debug( f"MGM forecast URL {forecast_url} returned {daily_resp.status_code}" ) except Exception as e: logger.debug(f"MGM forecast URL {forecast_url} failed: {e}") # 3. 小时预报 try: hourly_resp = self.session.get( f"{base_url}/tahminler/saatlik?istno={istno}", headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout ) if hourly_resp.status_code == 200: h_data = hourly_resp.json() if h_data and isinstance(h_data, list): tahmin_list = h_data[0].get("tahmin", []) results["hourly"] = [] for t_data in tahmin_list: if "tarih" in t_data and "sicaklik" in t_data: results["hourly"].append({ "time": t_data["tarih"], "temp": t_data["sicaklik"] }) except Exception as e: logger.debug(f"MGM hourly failed: {e}") # 4. Fallback for today_high (if daily forecast is missing it) if "today_high" not in results: # Try from current max cur_max = results.get("current", {}).get("mgm_max_temp") if cur_max is not None: results["today_high"] = cur_max logger.info(f"📋 MGM 每日预报: 使用当前测站最高温作为今日预报回退: {cur_max}°C") elif "hourly" in results and results["hourly"]: # Try from hourly h_max = max((h["temp"] for h in results["hourly"] if h["temp"] is not None), default=None) if h_max is not None: results["today_high"] = h_max logger.info(f"📋 MGM 每日预报: 使用小时预报最高温作为今日预报回退: {h_max}°C") return results if "current" in results else None except Exception as e: logger.error(f"MGM API 请求失败 ({istno}): {e}") return None def fetch_nws(self, lat: float, lon: float) -> Optional[Dict]: """ 从 NWS (美国国家气象局) 获取高精度预报 仅适用于美国城市,全球 VPS 均可访问 """ try: # 1. 获取网格点 points_url = f"https://api.weather.gov/points/{lat},{lon}" headers = {"User-Agent": "PolyWeather/1.0 (weather-bot)"} points_resp = self.session.get( points_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout ) points_resp.raise_for_status() points_data = points_resp.json() forecast_url = points_data.get("properties", {}).get("forecast") if not forecast_url: return None # 2. 获取预报 forecast_resp = self.session.get( forecast_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout ) forecast_resp.raise_for_status() forecast_data = forecast_resp.json() periods = forecast_data.get("properties", {}).get("periods", []) if not periods: return None # 3. 提取今日最高温(找 isDaytime=True 的第一个) today_high = None for p in periods: if p.get("isDaytime") and "High" in p.get("name", ""): today_high = p.get("temperature") break # 如果没有明确的 High,取第一个 daytime 的温度 if today_high is None: for p in periods: if p.get("isDaytime"): today_high = p.get("temperature") break return { "source": "nws", "today_high": today_high, "unit": "fahrenheit", } except Exception as e: logger.warning(f"NWS 请求失败: {e}") return None def fetch_from_open_meteo( self, lat: float, lon: float, forecast_days: int = 14, use_fahrenheit: bool = False, ) -> Optional[Dict]: """ Fetch weather from Open-Meteo with forecast data Args: lat: Latitude lon: Longitude forecast_days: Number of forecast days to fetch (default 14 to cover all market dates) use_fahrenheit: Whether to return temperatures in Fahrenheit (for US markets) """ try: url = "https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast" params = { "latitude": lat, "longitude": lon, "current_weather": "true", "hourly": "temperature_2m,shortwave_radiation", "daily": "temperature_2m_max,apparent_temperature_max,sunrise,sunset,sunshine_duration", "timezone": "auto", "forecast_days": forecast_days, "_t": int(time.time()), # 禁用缓存,强制刷新 } # 显式指定单位,防止 API 默认行为漂移 if use_fahrenheit: params["temperature_unit"] = "fahrenheit" else: params["temperature_unit"] = "celsius" response = self.session.get( url, params=params, headers={"Cache-Control": "no-cache", "Pragma": "no-cache"}, timeout=self.timeout, ) response.raise_for_status() data = response.json() current = data.get("current_weather", {}) utc_offset = data.get("utc_offset_seconds", 0) timezone_name = data.get("timezone", "UTC") # 处理多模型数据 (如果请求了 models 参数,返回结构会变化) daily_data = data.get("daily", {}) if "temperature_2m_max_ecmwf_ifs04" in daily_data: ecmwf_max = daily_data.get("temperature_2m_max_ecmwf_ifs04", []) hrrr_max = daily_data.get("temperature_2m_max_ncep_hrrr_conus", []) # 记录今日模型分歧 daily_data["model_split"] = { "ecmwf": ecmwf_max[0] if ecmwf_max else None, "hrrr": hrrr_max[0] if hrrr_max else None, } # 智能合并:HRRR 仅覆盖 48 小时,远期用 ECMWF 补全 merged_max = [] for i in range(len(ecmwf_max)): hrrr_val = hrrr_max[i] if i < len(hrrr_max) else None ecmwf_val = ecmwf_max[i] if i < len(ecmwf_max) else None # 优先 HRRR,其次 ECMWF,都没有就跳过 if hrrr_val is not None: merged_max.append(hrrr_val) elif ecmwf_val is not None: merged_max.append(ecmwf_val) else: # 两个都没有,用占位符 (理论上不应该发生) merged_max.append(ecmwf_val) # None daily_data["temperature_2m_max"] = merged_max # 映射逐小时数据 hourly_data = data.get("hourly", {}) if "temperature_2m_ncep_hrrr_conus" in hourly_data: hourly_data["temperature_2m"] = hourly_data[ "temperature_2m_ncep_hrrr_conus" ] # 计算精确的当地时间 now_utc = datetime.utcnow() local_now = now_utc + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) local_time_str = local_now.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M") return { "source": "open-meteo", "timestamp": now_utc.isoformat(), "timezone": timezone_name, "utc_offset": utc_offset, "current": { "temp": current.get("temperature"), "local_time": local_time_str, }, "hourly": hourly_data, "daily": daily_data, "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", } except Exception as e: logger.error(f"Open-Meteo forecast failed: {e}") return None def fetch_ensemble( self, lat: float, lon: float, use_fahrenheit: bool = False, ) -> Optional[Dict]: """ 从 Open-Meteo Ensemble API 获取 51 成员集合预报 用于计算预报不确定性范围(散度) """ try: url = "https://ensemble-api.open-meteo.com/v1/ensemble" params = { "latitude": lat, "longitude": lon, "daily": "temperature_2m_max", "timezone": "auto", "forecast_days": 3, "_t": int(time.time()), } if use_fahrenheit: params["temperature_unit"] = "fahrenheit" else: params["temperature_unit"] = "celsius" response = self.session.get( url, params=params, headers={"Cache-Control": "no-cache"}, timeout=self.timeout, ) response.raise_for_status() data = response.json() daily = data.get("daily", {}) # 每个成员都会返回一组 temperature_2m_max # 格式: {"time": [...], "temperature_2m_max_member01": [...], ...} today_highs = [] for key, values in daily.items(): if key.startswith("temperature_2m_max") and key != "temperature_2m_max": if values and values[0] is not None: today_highs.append(values[0]) # 也检查非成员键(有些返回格式不同) if not today_highs: raw_max = daily.get("temperature_2m_max", []) if isinstance(raw_max, list) and raw_max: if isinstance(raw_max[0], list): # 嵌套列表格式: [[member1_day1, member1_day2], [member2_day1, ...]] today_highs = [m[0] for m in raw_max if m and m[0] is not None] elif raw_max[0] is not None: today_highs = [raw_max[0]] if len(today_highs) < 3: logger.warning(f"Ensemble 数据不足: 仅获取 {len(today_highs)} 个成员") return None today_highs.sort() n = len(today_highs) median = today_highs[n // 2] p10 = today_highs[max(0, int(n * 0.1))] p90 = today_highs[min(n - 1, int(n * 0.9))] result = { "source": "ensemble", "members": n, "median": round(median, 1), "p10": round(p10, 1), "p90": round(p90, 1), "min": round(today_highs[0], 1), "max": round(today_highs[-1], 1), "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", } logger.info( f"📊 Ensemble ({n} members): median={median:.1f}, " f"p10={p10:.1f}, p90={p90:.1f}" ) return result except Exception as e: logger.warning(f"Ensemble API 请求失败: {e}") return None def fetch_multi_model( self, lat: float, lon: float, use_fahrenheit: bool = False, ) -> Optional[Dict]: """ 从 Open-Meteo 获取多个独立 NWP 模型的预报 用于真正的多模型共识评分 模型列表: - ECMWF IFS (欧洲中期天气预报中心) - GFS (美国 NOAA) - ICON (德国气象局 DWD) - GEM (加拿大气象局) - JMA (日本气象厅) 返回 3 天的预报数据,支持今日+明日共识分析 """ try: url = "https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast" models = "ecmwf_ifs025,gfs_seamless,icon_seamless,gem_seamless,jma_seamless" params = { "latitude": lat, "longitude": lon, "daily": "temperature_2m_max", "models": models, "timezone": "auto", "forecast_days": 3, "_t": int(time.time()), } if use_fahrenheit: params["temperature_unit"] = "fahrenheit" response = self.session.get( url, params=params, headers={"Cache-Control": "no-cache"}, timeout=self.timeout, ) response.raise_for_status() data = response.json() daily = data.get("daily", {}) dates = daily.get("time", []) model_labels = { "ecmwf_ifs025": "ECMWF", "gfs_seamless": "GFS", "icon_seamless": "ICON", "gem_seamless": "GEM", "jma_seamless": "JMA", } # 按天提取每个模型的预报 daily_forecasts = {} # {"2026-02-23": {"ECMWF": 7.9, "GFS": 6.5, ...}, ...} for day_idx, date_str in enumerate(dates): day_data = {} for model_key, label in model_labels.items(): key = f"temperature_2m_max_{model_key}" values = daily.get(key, []) if day_idx < len(values) and values[day_idx] is not None: day_data[label] = round(values[day_idx], 1) if day_data: daily_forecasts[date_str] = day_data if not daily_forecasts: logger.warning("Multi-model: 无有效模型数据") return None # 今天的预报 (向后兼容) today_date = dates[0] if dates else None forecasts = daily_forecasts.get(today_date, {}) labels_str = ", ".join([f"{k}={v}" for k, v in forecasts.items()]) logger.info( f"🔬 Multi-model ({len(forecasts)}个, {len(daily_forecasts)}天): {labels_str}" ) return { "source": "multi_model", "forecasts": forecasts, # 今天 {"ECMWF": 12.3, "GFS": 11.8, ...} (向后兼容) "daily_forecasts": daily_forecasts, # 按天 {"2026-02-23": {...}, "2026-02-24": {...}} "dates": dates, "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", } except Exception as e: logger.warning(f"Multi-model API 请求失败: {e}") return None def fetch_from_meteoblue( self, lat: float, lon: float, timezone_name: str = "UTC", use_fahrenheit: bool = False, ) -> Optional[Dict]: """ 通过 Meteoblue 官方 API 获取高精度预测数据 """ if not self.meteoblue_key: logger.warning("Meteoblue API Key 未配置,跳过抓取。") return None try: # 1. 调用官方 API (使用 basic-day 包,它是多模型 ML 融合结果) # 格式: https://my.meteoblue.com/packages/basic-day?apikey=KEY&lat=LAT&lon=LON&format=json url = "https://my.meteoblue.com/packages/basic-day" params = { "apikey": self.meteoblue_key, "lat": lat, "lon": lon, "format": "json", "as_daylight": "true", } response = self.session.get(url, params=params, timeout=self.timeout) response.raise_for_status() data = response.json() day_data = data.get("data_day", {}) max_temps = day_data.get("temperature_max", []) if not max_temps: logger.warning( f"Meteoblue API 返回数据中找不到最高温 (坐标: {lat},{lon})" ) return None # 2. 转换单位 def c_to_f(c): return round((c * 9 / 5) + 32, 1) result = { "source": "meteoblue", "today_high": None, "daily_highs": [], "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", "url": f"https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/week/{lat}N{lon}E", # 仅供参考 } # 提取今日最高 mb_today_c = max_temps[0] result["today_high"] = c_to_f(mb_today_c) if use_fahrenheit else mb_today_c # 提取接下来几天的最高温 if use_fahrenheit: result["daily_highs"] = [c_to_f(t) for t in max_temps] else: result["daily_highs"] = max_temps logger.info( f"✅ Meteoblue API 获取成功 ({lat},{lon}): 今天 {result['today_high']}{result['unit']}" ) return result except Exception as e: logger.error(f"Meteoblue API fetch failed: {e}") return None def extract_date_from_title(self, title: str) -> Optional[str]: """ 从标题中提取日期并标准化为 YYYY-MM-DD 支持: "February 6", "2月6日", "2-6" 等 """ # 1. 尝试英文月份 months = { "January": "01", "February": "02", "March": "03", "April": "04", "May": "05", "June": "06", "July": "07", "August": "08", "September": "09", "October": "10", "November": "11", "December": "12", } for month_name, month_val in months.items(): if month_name in title: match = re.search(f"{month_name}\\s+(\\d+)", title) if match: day = int(match.group(1)) year = datetime.now().year return f"{year}-{month_val}-{day:02d}" # 2. 尝试中文格式 "2月7日" 或 "02月07日" zh_match = re.search(r"(\d{1,2})月(\d{1,2})日", title) if zh_match: month = int(zh_match.group(1)) day = int(zh_match.group(2)) year = datetime.now().year return f"{year}-{month:02d}-{day:02d}" # 3. 尝试 ISO 格式 YYYY-MM-DD iso_match = re.search(r"(\d{4})-(\d{2})-(\d{2})", title) if iso_match: return iso_match.group(0) return None def get_coordinates(self, city: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, float]]: """ 使用 Open-Meteo Geocoding API 获取城市坐标 (免费, 无需 Key) """ # 坐标使用 METAR 机场位置(Polymarket 以机场数据结算) static_coords = { "london": {"lat": 51.5053, "lon": 0.0553}, # EGLC London City "paris": {"lat": 49.0097, "lon": 2.5478}, # LFPG Charles de Gaulle "new york": {"lat": 40.7750, "lon": -73.8750}, # KLGA LaGuardia "new york's central park": {"lat": 40.7812, "lon": -73.9665}, "nyc": {"lat": 40.7750, "lon": -73.8750}, # KLGA LaGuardia "seattle": {"lat": 47.4499, "lon": -122.3118}, # KSEA Sea-Tac "chicago": {"lat": 41.9769, "lon": -87.9081}, # KORD O'Hare "dallas": {"lat": 32.8459, "lon": -96.8509}, # KDAL Love Field "miami": {"lat": 25.7933, "lon": -80.2906}, # KMIA International "atlanta": {"lat": 33.6367, "lon": -84.4281}, # KATL Hartsfield-Jackson "seoul": {"lat": 37.4691, "lon": 126.4510}, # RKSI Incheon "toronto": {"lat": 43.6759, "lon": -79.6294}, # CYYZ Pearson "ankara": {"lat": 40.1281, "lon": 32.9950}, # LTAC Esenboğa "wellington": {"lat": -41.3272, "lon": 174.8053}, # NZWN Wellington "buenos aires": {"lat": -34.8222, "lon": -58.5358}, # SAEZ Ezeiza } normalized_city = city.lower().strip() if normalized_city in static_coords: return static_coords[normalized_city] # 模糊匹配映射 (针对包含城市名的情况) for key in static_coords: if key in normalized_city: logger.debug(f"地理编码命中模糊映射: {city} -> {key}") return static_coords[key] try: url = "https://geocoding-api.open-meteo.com/v1/search" response = self.session.get( url, params={"name": city, "count": 1, "language": "en", "format": "json"}, timeout=15, # 增加超时时间到 15s ) response.raise_for_status() results = response.json().get("results", []) if results: res = results[0] return { "lat": res.get("latitude"), "lon": res.get("longitude"), "name": res.get("name"), "country": res.get("country"), } except Exception as e: logger.error(f"地理编码失败 ({city}): {e}") return None def extract_city_from_question(self, question: str) -> Optional[str]: """ 从 Polymarket 问题描述或 Slug 中提取城市名称 """ q = question.lower() # 1. 优先尝试已知城市列表 (硬编码匹配) known_cities = { "london": "London", "伦敦": "London", "new york": "New York", "new york's central park": "New York", "nyc": "New York", "纽约": "New York", "seattle": "Seattle", "西雅图": "Seattle", "chicago": "Chicago", "芝加哥": "Chicago", "dallas": "Dallas", "达拉斯": "Dallas", "miami": "Miami", "迈阿密": "Miami", "atlanta": "Atlanta", "亚特兰大": "Atlanta", "seoul": "Seoul", "首尔": "Seoul", "toronto": "Toronto", "多伦多": "Toronto", "ankara": "Ankara", "安卡拉": "Ankara", "wellington": "Wellington", "惠灵顿": "Wellington", "buenos aires": "Buenos Aires", "布宜诺斯艾利斯": "Buenos Aires", } for key, val in known_cities.items(): if key in q: return val # 2. 从英文模板中提取 triggers = [ "temperature in ", "temp in ", "weather in ", "highest-temperature-in-", "temperature-in-", ] for trigger in triggers: if trigger in q: part = q.split(trigger)[1] delimiters = [ " on ", " at ", " above ", " below ", " be ", " is ", " will ", " has ", " reached ", "?", " (", ", ", "-", ] city = part for d in delimiters: if d in city: city = city.split(d)[0] return city.strip().title() return None def fetch_all_sources( self, city: str, lat: float = None, lon: float = None, country: str = None ) -> Dict: """ Fetch weather data from all available sources """ results = {} # 判断是否为美国市场(使用华氏度) us_cities = { "dallas", "nyc", "new york", "seattle", "miami", "atlanta", "chicago", "los angeles", "san francisco", "washington", "boston", "houston", "phoenix", "philadelphia", "new york's central park", "portland", "denver", "austin", "san diego", "detroit", "cleveland", "minneapolis", "st. louis", } city_lower = city.lower().strip() # 严格判断是否为美国市场(必须完全匹配列表或缩写) use_fahrenheit = city_lower in us_cities if use_fahrenheit: logger.info(f"🌡️ {city} 使用华氏度 (°F)") else: logger.info(f"🌡️ {city} 使用摄氏度 (°C)") if lat and lon: open_meteo = self.fetch_from_open_meteo( lat, lon, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit ) if open_meteo: results["open-meteo"] = open_meteo # 获取时区偏移以过滤 METAR utc_offset = open_meteo.get("utc_offset", 0) metar_data = self.fetch_metar( city, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit, utc_offset=utc_offset ) if metar_data: results["metar"] = metar_data # 对安卡拉,额外获取 MGM 官方数据 (17130 为 Ankara Bölge 市区测站) if city_lower == "ankara": mgm_data = self.fetch_from_mgm("17130") if mgm_data: results["mgm"] = mgm_data # 对伦敦,获取 Meteoblue 预测 (公认最准) if city_lower == "london": mb_data = self.fetch_from_meteoblue( lat, lon, timezone_name=open_meteo.get("timezone", "UTC"), use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit, ) if mb_data: results["meteoblue"] = mb_data # 对美国城市,额外获取 NWS 高精预报 if use_fahrenheit: nws_data = self.fetch_nws(lat, lon) if nws_data: results["nws"] = nws_data # 集合预报 (所有城市通用,用于不确定性分析) ens_data = self.fetch_ensemble(lat, lon, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit) if ens_data: results["ensemble"] = ens_data # 多模型预报 (所有城市通用,用于共识评分) mm_data = self.fetch_multi_model( lat, lon, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit ) if mm_data: results["multi_model"] = mm_data else: # Open-Meteo 失败时,仍然尝试获取 METAR 和 NWS metar_data = self.fetch_metar(city, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit) if metar_data: results["metar"] = metar_data if use_fahrenheit: nws_data = self.fetch_nws(lat, lon) if nws_data: results["nws"] = nws_data else: # 降级方案(无经纬度) metar_data = self.fetch_metar(city, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit) if metar_data: results["metar"] = metar_data return results def check_consensus(self, forecasts: Dict) -> Dict: """ Check consensus across multiple weather sources Args: forecasts: Dict of forecasts from different sources Returns: dict: Consensus analysis """ predictions = [] for source, data in forecasts.items(): if data and "current" in data: predictions.append({"source": source, "temp": data["current"]["temp"]}) if len(predictions) == 0: return {"consensus": False, "reason": "No weather data available"} temps = [p["temp"] for p in predictions] avg_temp = sum(temps) / len(temps) # If only one source, consensus is implicitly true if len(predictions) == 1: return { "consensus": True, "average_temp": avg_temp, "max_difference": 0.0, "predictions": predictions, "note": "Single source only", } max_diff = max(abs(t - avg_temp) for t in temps) # Consensus if all predictions within 2.5°C is_consensus = max_diff <= 2.5 return { "consensus": is_consensus, "average_temp": avg_temp, "max_difference": max_diff, "predictions": predictions, }