{
  "version": "emos-20260402151301",
  "trained_at": "2026-04-02T15:13:01.073253+00:00",
  "global": {
    "mu": {
      "intercept": 1.52725527,
      "raw_mu_coef": 2.96318139,
      "deb_coef": -1.54490032,
      "ens_median_coef": -0.71820793,
      "max_so_far_gap_coef": 10.22802132
    },
    "sigma": {
      "intercept": 0.67227661,
      "raw_sigma_coef": 0.69444674,
      "spread_coef": 0.09134583,
      "peak_flag_coef": -0.58201761,
      "max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.81482466
    }
  },
  "sigma_constraints": {
    "min_ratio": 0.85,
    "max_ratio": 1.35,
    "absolute_min": 0.25,
    "absolute_max": 3.0
  },
  "selection_guardrails": {
    "max_mae_increase": 0.02,
    "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01,
    "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05
  },
  "blending": {
    "alpha_mu": 0.0,
    "alpha_sigma": 0.45
  },
  "cities": {
    "ankara": {
      "samples": 3,
      "mu_bias": 1.283918,
      "sigma_scale": 1.484056,
      "confidence": 0.375
    },
    "hong kong": {
      "samples": 4,
      "mu_bias": 1.329042,
      "sigma_scale": 1.045379,
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    "milan": {
      "samples": 3,
      "mu_bias": -3.932299,
      "sigma_scale": 2.0,
      "confidence": 0.375
    },
    "shanghai": {
      "samples": 3,
      "mu_bias": 1.827618,
      "sigma_scale": 2.0,
      "confidence": 0.375
    },
    "taipei": {
      "samples": 3,
      "mu_bias": 3.387896,
      "sigma_scale": 2.0,
      "confidence": 0.375
    },
    "warsaw": {
      "samples": 3,
      "mu_bias": -0.614031,
      "sigma_scale": 1.252706,
      "confidence": 0.375
    }
  },
  "metrics": {
    "sample_count": 54,
    "mean_crps": 3.78558,
    "legacy_mean_crps": 4.326547,
    "legacy_mean_mae": 4.528889,
    "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.518519,
    "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.83496,
    "selected_mean_crps": 4.239815,
    "selected_mean_mae": 4.528889,
    "selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.537037,
    "selected_bucket_brier": 0.853485,
    "selected_score": 6.027262,
    "legacy_score": 6.127879,
    "filled_actual_from_history": 2,
    "settlement_history_city_count": 30
  },
  "source": "artifacts\\probability_calibration\\default.json"
}