{ "version": "emos-20260418192717", "trained_at": "2026-04-18T19:27:17.348931+00:00", "global": { "mu": { "intercept": 2.60074353, "raw_mu_coef": 1.97765258, "deb_coef": -1.37457626, "ens_median_coef": 0.10693472, "max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.58256593 }, "sigma": { "intercept": 0.6373609, "raw_sigma_coef": -1.41537225, "spread_coef": 2.12997577, "peak_flag_coef": -0.08633203, "max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.00716383 } }, "sigma_constraints": { "min_ratio": 0.85, "max_ratio": 1.35, "absolute_min": 0.25, "absolute_max": 3.0 }, "selection_guardrails": { "max_mae_increase": 0.02, "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01, "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05 }, "blending": { "alpha_mu": 0.05, "alpha_sigma": 0.7 }, "cities": { "tokyo": { "samples": 5, "mu_bias": 2.101101, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.625 }, "ankara": { "samples": 6, "mu_bias": -0.523145, "sigma_scale": 1.139849, "confidence": 0.75 }, "istanbul": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": -0.285183, "sigma_scale": 0.550171, "confidence": 0.375 }, "hong kong": { "samples": 7, "mu_bias": 3.234676, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.875 }, "taipei": { "samples": 5, "mu_bias": 4.731246, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.625 }, "busan": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": 0.177772, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.375 }, "seoul": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": -3.070325, "sigma_scale": 1.462196, "confidence": 0.375 }, "milan": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": -4.249866, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.375 }, "shanghai": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": 1.080039, "sigma_scale": 1.638119, "confidence": 0.375 }, "warsaw": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": -1.68611, "sigma_scale": 1.38114, "confidence": 0.375 } }, "metrics": { "sample_count": 74, "mean_crps": 3.181501, "legacy_mean_crps": 3.474108, "legacy_mean_mae": 3.679324, "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5, "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.855395, "selected_mean_crps": 3.322469, "selected_mean_mae": 3.618254, "selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5, "selected_bucket_brier": 0.863048, "selected_score": 5.08158, "legacy_score": 5.233586, "filled_actual_from_history": 0, "settlement_history_city_count": 30, "legacy_archive_samples": 54 }, "source": "artifacts\\probability_calibration\\default.json" }