{ "version": "emos-20260415164136", "trained_at": "2026-04-15T16:41:36.704829+00:00", "global": { "mu": { "intercept": -0.39094186, "raw_mu_coef": 0.27476248, "deb_coef": 0.91159557, "ens_median_coef": -0.16959018, "max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.94232523 }, "sigma": { "intercept": -1.56485068, "raw_sigma_coef": 0.12930442, "spread_coef": 0.15947819, "peak_flag_coef": 0.19328621, "max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.08469752 } }, "sigma_constraints": { "min_ratio": 0.85, "max_ratio": 1.35, "absolute_min": 0.25, "absolute_max": 3.0 }, "selection_guardrails": { "max_mae_increase": 0.02, "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01, "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05 }, "blending": { "alpha_mu": 1.0, "alpha_sigma": 0.5 }, "cities": { "tokyo": { "samples": 4, "mu_bias": 0.211244, "sigma_scale": 0.5, "confidence": 0.5 }, "ankara": { "samples": 11, "mu_bias": 0.027471, "sigma_scale": 0.5, "confidence": 1.0 }, "istanbul": { "samples": 12, "mu_bias": 0.048913, "sigma_scale": 0.5, "confidence": 1.0 }, "hong kong": { "samples": 12, "mu_bias": -0.026823, "sigma_scale": 1.020494, "confidence": 1.0 }, "taipei": { "samples": 5, "mu_bias": 0.192719, "sigma_scale": 0.5, "confidence": 0.625 } }, "metrics": { "sample_count": 50, "mean_crps": 0.278798, "legacy_mean_crps": 1.26525, "legacy_mean_mae": 1.4674, "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.54, "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.744518, "selected_mean_crps": 0.278798, "selected_mean_mae": 0.248457, "selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.82, "selected_bucket_brier": 0.369542, "selected_score": 0.8508, "legacy_score": 2.660378, "filled_actual_from_history": 0, "settlement_history_city_count": 30 }, "source": "artifacts\\probability_calibration\\default.json" }