{ "version": "emos-auto-20260418212046", "trained_at": "2026-04-18T21:21:01.845585+00:00", "global": { "mu": { "intercept": 0.2254302, "raw_mu_coef": 0.6118983, "deb_coef": 0.33808937, "ens_median_coef": 0.05495855, "max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.0932547 }, "sigma": { "intercept": -0.63488372, "raw_sigma_coef": 0.25697024, "spread_coef": 0.27252389, "peak_flag_coef": 0.25649506, "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.1247358 } }, "sigma_constraints": { "min_ratio": 0.85, "max_ratio": 1.35, "absolute_min": 0.25, "absolute_max": 3.0 }, "selection_guardrails": { "max_mae_increase": 0.02, "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01, "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05 }, "blending": { "alpha_mu": 0.05, "alpha_sigma": 1.0 }, "cities": { "jakarta": { "samples": 14, "mu_bias": -0.311632, "sigma_scale": 1.017611, "confidence": 1.0 }, "tokyo": { "samples": 20, "mu_bias": -0.66582, "sigma_scale": 0.811034, "confidence": 1.0 }, "tel aviv": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": 0.528539, "sigma_scale": 1.575887, "confidence": 1.0 }, "toronto": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": 0.199116, "sigma_scale": 1.357064, "confidence": 1.0 }, "buenos aires": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": -0.805689, "sigma_scale": 1.360136, "confidence": 1.0 }, "wellington": { "samples": 20, "mu_bias": -0.205656, "sigma_scale": 0.924063, "confidence": 1.0 }, "ankara": { "samples": 20, "mu_bias": 0.370092, "sigma_scale": 1.198264, "confidence": 1.0 }, "new york": { "samples": 18, "mu_bias": 0.951787, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "los angeles": { "samples": 17, "mu_bias": -0.194962, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "san francisco": { "samples": 17, "mu_bias": 1.147953, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "aurora": { "samples": 17, "mu_bias": 1.294945, "sigma_scale": 0.970849, "confidence": 1.0 }, "austin": { "samples": 17, "mu_bias": 1.225084, "sigma_scale": 1.935455, "confidence": 1.0 }, "houston": { "samples": 17, "mu_bias": 0.325773, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "mexico city": { "samples": 17, "mu_bias": 0.390722, "sigma_scale": 1.324935, "confidence": 1.0 }, "chicago": { "samples": 18, "mu_bias": 2.419404, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "dallas": { "samples": 18, "mu_bias": 0.47057, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "miami": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": -3.137033, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "atlanta": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": -2.30076, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "seattle": { "samples": 18, "mu_bias": -0.201183, "sigma_scale": 1.232981, "confidence": 1.0 }, "lucknow": { "samples": 20, "mu_bias": -2.200374, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "helsinki": { "samples": 14, "mu_bias": 0.802133, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "chengdu": { "samples": 18, "mu_bias": 0.606095, "sigma_scale": 0.827307, "confidence": 1.0 }, "chongqing": { "samples": 18, "mu_bias": 0.474194, "sigma_scale": 1.138478, "confidence": 1.0 }, "shenzhen": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": -0.465199, "sigma_scale": 0.840945, "confidence": 1.0 }, "guangzhou": { "samples": 4, "mu_bias": -2.182386, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.5 }, "beijing": { "samples": 18, "mu_bias": -0.262371, "sigma_scale": 1.226611, "confidence": 1.0 }, "wuhan": { "samples": 18, "mu_bias": -0.51351, "sigma_scale": 1.47005, "confidence": 1.0 }, "panama city": { "samples": 14, "mu_bias": -0.045915, "sigma_scale": 1.357288, "confidence": 1.0 }, "lagos": { "samples": 7, "mu_bias": 0.519428, "sigma_scale": 1.514993, "confidence": 0.875 }, "jeddah": { "samples": 8, "mu_bias": 1.145929, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "shanghai": { "samples": 21, "mu_bias": 0.272435, "sigma_scale": 0.957354, "confidence": 1.0 }, "moscow": { "samples": 18, "mu_bias": -0.518587, "sigma_scale": 0.862574, "confidence": 1.0 }, "seoul": { "samples": 20, "mu_bias": 0.964252, "sigma_scale": 0.776068, "confidence": 1.0 }, "busan": { "samples": 14, "mu_bias": -0.216931, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "hong kong": { "samples": 22, "mu_bias": 0.379808, "sigma_scale": 0.576369, "confidence": 1.0 }, "lau fau shan": { "samples": 17, "mu_bias": 0.525219, "sigma_scale": 0.779717, "confidence": 1.0 }, "taipei": { "samples": 21, "mu_bias": 0.357955, "sigma_scale": 0.5, "confidence": 1.0 }, "singapore": { "samples": 20, "mu_bias": 0.128349, "sigma_scale": 1.087276, "confidence": 1.0 }, "kuala lumpur": { "samples": 14, "mu_bias": 0.121108, "sigma_scale": 1.744875, "confidence": 1.0 }, "cape town": { "samples": 7, "mu_bias": 0.455546, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.875 }, "paris": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": -0.127694, "sigma_scale": 1.230108, "confidence": 1.0 }, "madrid": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": -0.532308, "sigma_scale": 1.982566, "confidence": 1.0 }, "munich": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": 0.508653, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "milan": { "samples": 20, "mu_bias": -0.06599, "sigma_scale": 1.940436, "confidence": 1.0 }, "warsaw": { "samples": 20, "mu_bias": -0.390534, "sigma_scale": 0.761538, "confidence": 1.0 }, "amsterdam": { "samples": 14, "mu_bias": 0.360733, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "istanbul": { "samples": 17, "mu_bias": -0.52807, "sigma_scale": 0.5, "confidence": 1.0 }, "london": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": 0.26042, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 1.0 }, "sao paulo": { "samples": 19, "mu_bias": -0.628782, "sigma_scale": 1.610083, "confidence": 1.0 }, "manila": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": -0.780441, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.375 }, "karachi": { "samples": 3, "mu_bias": -1.489692, "sigma_scale": 2.0, "confidence": 0.375 } }, "metrics": { "sample_count": 847, "mean_crps": 1.366484, "legacy_mean_crps": 1.395994, "legacy_mean_mae": 1.587426, "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.451004, "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.833743, "selected_mean_crps": 1.353599, "selected_mean_mae": 1.579253, "selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.44392, "selected_bucket_brier": 0.802857, "selected_score": 2.947788, "legacy_score": 3.003539, "filled_actual_from_history": 0, "settlement_history_city_count": 30, "legacy_archive_samples": 54 }, "source": "artifacts\\local_runtime\\probability_calibration\\candidates\\emos-auto-20260418212046\\default.json" }