Clarify calibrated probability read with LGBM context
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@@ -742,6 +742,13 @@ export function FutureForecastModal() {
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[dateStr, detail],
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);
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const modelView = useMemo(() => getModelView(detail, dateStr), [dateStr, detail]);
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const hasLgbmProbability = useMemo(
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() =>
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Object.keys(modelView?.models || {}).some((name) =>
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String(name || "").toLowerCase().replace(/[\s_/-]/g, "").includes("lgbm"),
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),
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[modelView],
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);
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const topProbabilityBucket = useMemo(() => {
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const buckets = Array.isArray(probabilityView?.probabilities)
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? probabilityView.probabilities
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@@ -914,9 +921,14 @@ export function FutureForecastModal() {
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}
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const bucketLabel = formatBucketLabel(topProbabilityBucket);
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const bucketProb = formatMarketPercent(topProbabilityBucket.probability);
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if (hasLgbmProbability) {
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return locale === "en-US"
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? `LGBM-calibrated read puts the leading bucket at ${bucketLabel} (${bucketProb}). Treat this as the base case, not the final settlement.`
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: `LGBM 校准后领先温度桶为 ${bucketLabel}(${bucketProb})。可作为基准情形,但不要直接等同于最终结算。`;
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}
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return locale === "en-US"
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? `Highest current hit probability is ${bucketLabel} at ${bucketProb}. Treat this as the base case, not the final settlement.`
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: `当前命中概率最高的是 ${bucketLabel}(${bucketProb}),可把它当作基准情形,但不要直接等同于最终结算。`;
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? `Calibrated model probability puts the leading bucket at ${bucketLabel} (${bucketProb}). Treat this as the base case, not the final settlement.`
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: `校准模型概率显示领先温度桶为 ${bucketLabel}(${bucketProb})。可作为基准情形,但不要直接等同于最终结算。`;
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})();
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const modelSummary = (() => {
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if (!modelSpreadView) {
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@@ -1823,10 +1835,16 @@ export function FutureForecastModal() {
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<section className="future-modal-section">
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<div className="modal-section-heading">
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<div className="modal-section-kicker">
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{locale === "en-US" ? "Auxiliary probability" : "辅助概率"}
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{locale === "en-US" ? "Probability read" : "概率判断"}
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</div>
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<h3>
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{locale === "en-US" ? "Model & Market Reference" : "模型与市场参考"}
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{hasLgbmProbability
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? locale === "en-US"
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? "LGBM-Calibrated Probability"
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: "LGBM 校准概率"
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: locale === "en-US"
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? "Calibrated Model Probability"
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: "校准模型概率"}
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</h3>
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</div>
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<div className="future-text-block" style={{ marginBottom: "12px" }}>
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