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feat: Implement new bot architecture including handlers, services, analysis modules, and comprehensive tests.

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This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-03-12 11:44:52 +08:00
parent c582015163
commit f4fea03f35
28 changed files with 1525 additions and 445 deletions
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src/analysis/trend_engine.py
+37 -39
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@@ -385,34 +385,43 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
probabilities: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
forecast_miss_deg = 0.0
if (ens_p10 is not None and ens_p90 is not None) or fallback_sigma:
if not is_dead_market:
# Forecast miss magnitude
if max_so_far is not None and forecast_median is not None:
forecast_miss_deg = round(forecast_median - max_so_far, 1)
fallback_center = forecast_median if forecast_median is not None else (forecast_high if forecast_high is not None else cur_temp)
center = ens_median if ens_median is not None else fallback_center
# Reality-anchored μ
if (
max_so_far is not None
and forecast_median is not None
and peak_status in ("past", "in_window")
and max_so_far < forecast_median - 2.0
):
if is_cooling or peak_status == "past":
mu = max_so_far
else:
mu = max_so_far + 0.5
if is_dead_market:
settled_wu = wu_round(max_so_far) if max_so_far is not None else 0
dead_msg = f"🎲 <b>结算预测</b>：已锁定 {settled_wu}{temp_symbol} (死盘确认)"
insights.append(dead_msg)
ai_features.append("🎲 状态: 确认死盘，结算已无悬念。")
if max_so_far is not None:
mu = max_so_far
probabilities = [
{"value": settled_wu, "range": f"[{settled_wu-0.5}~{settled_wu+0.5})", "probability": 1.0}
]
elif (ens_p10 is not None and ens_p90 is not None) or fallback_sigma:
# Forecast miss magnitude
if max_so_far is not None and forecast_median is not None:
forecast_miss_deg = round(forecast_median - max_so_far, 1)
fallback_center = forecast_median if forecast_median is not None else (forecast_high if forecast_high is not None else cur_temp)
center = ens_median if ens_median is not None else fallback_center
# Reality-anchored μ
if (
max_so_far is not None
and forecast_median is not None
and peak_status in ("past", "in_window")
and max_so_far < forecast_median - 2.0
):
if is_cooling or peak_status == "past":
mu = max_so_far
else:
mu = (
forecast_median * 0.7 + center * 0.3
if forecast_median is not None and center is not None
else center
)
if max_so_far is not None and mu is not None and max_so_far > mu:
mu = max_so_far + (0.3 if not is_cooling else 0.0)
mu = max_so_far + 0.5
else:
mu = (
forecast_median * 0.7 + center * 0.3
if forecast_median is not None and center is not None
else center
)
if max_so_far is not None and mu is not None and max_so_far > mu:
mu = max_so_far + (0.3 if not is_cooling else 0.0)
# Forecast miss severity for AI
if forecast_miss_deg > 2.0 and peak_status in ("past", "in_window"):
@@ -431,7 +440,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
mu = probs_result.get("mu", mu)
probabilities = probs_result.get("probabilities", [])
sorted_probs = probs_result.get("sorted_probs", [])
if sorted_probs:
prob_parts = [
f"{int(t)}{temp_symbol} [{t - 0.5}~{t + 0.5}) {p * 100:.0f}%"
@@ -442,17 +451,6 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
insights.append(f"🎲 <b>结算概率</b> (μ={mu:.1f})：{prob_str}")
ai_features.append(f"🎲 数学概率分布：{prob_str}")
elif is_dead_market:
settled_wu = wu_round(max_so_far) if max_so_far is not None else 0
dead_msg = f"🎲 <b>结算预测</b>：已锁定 {settled_wu}{temp_symbol} (死盘确认)"
insights.append(dead_msg)
ai_features.append("🎲 状态: 确认死盘，结算已无悬念。")
if max_so_far is not None:
mu = max_so_far
probabilities = [
{"value": settled_wu, "range": f"[{settled_wu-0.5}~{settled_wu+0.5})", "probability": 1.0}
]
# === Actual exceeds forecast ===
if max_so_far is not None and forecast_high is not None:
if max_so_far > forecast_high + 0.5: