From ee535e9efac47af0c7de19eac8343a1905895233 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "2569718930@qq.com" <2569718930@qq.com>
Date: Sun, 1 Mar 2026 15:53:29 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] feat: DEB accuracy tracking - save predictions, compute WU
 hit rate and MAE

---
 bot_listener.py               | 12 ++++++--
 src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py | 58 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++--
 2 files changed, 65 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)

diff --git a/bot_listener.py b/bot_listener.py
index 4b176e4b..e8dbe8bc 100644
--- a/bot_listener.py
+++ b/bot_listener.py
@@ -78,12 +78,20 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol, city_name=None):
     if city_name and current_forecasts:
         blended_high, weight_info = calculate_dynamic_weights(city_name, current_forecasts)
         if blended_high is not None:
-            insights.insert(0, f"🧬 <b>DEB 融合预测</b>：<b>{blended_high}{temp_symbol}</b> ({weight_info})")
+            # 展示准确率（如果有历史数据）
+            from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import get_deb_accuracy
+            accuracy = get_deb_accuracy(city_name)
+            acc_tag = ""
+            if accuracy:
+                hit_rate, mae, total_days, details_str = accuracy
+                acc_tag = f"\n   📈 <b>DEB 历史战绩</b>：{details_str}"
+            
+            insights.insert(0, f"🧬 <b>DEB 融合预测</b>：<b>{blended_high}{temp_symbol}</b> ({weight_info}){acc_tag}")
             ai_features.append(f"🧬 DEB系统已通过历史偏差矫正算出期待点是: {blended_high}{temp_symbol}。")
             
         # 顺便把今天的预测记录下来供之后回测用
         try:
-            update_daily_record(city_name, local_date_str, current_forecasts, max_so_far)
+            update_daily_record(city_name, local_date_str, current_forecasts, max_so_far, deb_prediction=blended_high)
         except:
             pass
 
diff --git a/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py b/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py
index db544569..315866e6 100644
--- a/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py
+++ b/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py
@@ -45,11 +45,12 @@ def save_history(filepath, data):
     except Exception as e:
         print(f"Error saving history: {e}")
 
-def update_daily_record(city_name, date_str, forecasts, actual_high):
+def update_daily_record(city_name, date_str, forecasts, actual_high, deb_prediction=None):
     """
     保存/更新某城市某天的各个模型预报与最终实测值
     forecasts: dict, 例如 {"ECMWF": 28.5, "GFS": 30.0, ...}
     actual_high: float, 最终实测最高温
+    deb_prediction: float, DEB 融合预测值（用于准确率追踪）
     """
     project_root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
     history_file = os.path.join(project_root, 'data', 'daily_records.json')
@@ -61,14 +62,15 @@ def update_daily_record(city_name, date_str, forecasts, actual_high):
     if date_str not in data[city_name]:
         data[city_name][date_str] = {}
     
-    # 避免无意义的频繁磁盘写入：如果数据没有变化，直接返回
+    # 避免无意义的频繁磁盘写入
     old_actual = data[city_name][date_str].get('actual_high')
     if old_actual == actual_high and data[city_name][date_str].get('forecasts') == forecasts:
         return
     
     data[city_name][date_str]['forecasts'] = forecasts
-    # 只要仍在更新或者已经结束，都记录最新高点
     data[city_name][date_str]['actual_high'] = actual_high
+    if deb_prediction is not None:
+        data[city_name][date_str]['deb_prediction'] = deb_prediction
     
     # 自动清理：只保留最近 14 天的记录（DEB 只用 7 天，14 天留足余量）
     cutoff = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=14)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
@@ -162,3 +164,53 @@ def calculate_dynamic_weights(city_name, current_forecasts, lookback_days=7):
          
     return round(blended_high, 1), " | ".join(weight_str_parts)
 
+
+def get_deb_accuracy(city_name):
+    """
+    计算 DEB 融合预测的历史准确率
+    返回: (hit_rate, mae, total_days, details_str) 或 None
+    - hit_rate: WU 结算命中率 (DEB 四舍五入 == 实测四舍五入)
+    - mae: 平均绝对误差
+    - total_days: 有效天数
+    - details_str: 格式化的展示字符串
+    """
+    project_root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+    history_file = os.path.join(project_root, 'data', 'daily_records.json')
+    data = load_history(history_file)
+    
+    if city_name not in data:
+        return None
+    
+    city_data = data[city_name]
+    today_str = datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+    
+    hits = 0
+    total = 0
+    errors = []
+    
+    for date_str in sorted(city_data.keys()):
+        if date_str == today_str:
+            continue  # 跳过今天，还没结算
+        record = city_data[date_str]
+        deb_pred = record.get('deb_prediction')
+        actual = record.get('actual_high')
+        
+        if deb_pred is None or actual is None:
+            continue
+        
+        total += 1
+        deb_wu = round(deb_pred)
+        actual_wu = round(actual)
+        if deb_wu == actual_wu:
+            hits += 1
+        errors.append(abs(deb_pred - actual))
+    
+    if total == 0:
+        return None
+    
+    hit_rate = hits / total * 100
+    mae = sum(errors) / len(errors)
+    
+    details_str = f"过去{total}天 WU命中 {hits}/{total} ({hit_rate:.0f}%) | MAE: {mae:.1f}°"
+    
+    return hit_rate, mae, total, details_str