feat: build DEB hourly consensus for peak windows

2026-05-28 10:44:48 +08:00
parent 12d911f356
commit d83a0f0eef
11 changed files with 468 additions and 38 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+from src.analysis.deb_hourly_consensus import (
+    DEB_HOURLY_CONSENSUS_VERSION,
+    build_deb_hourly_consensus_path,
+)
+
+
+def test_deb_hourly_consensus_uses_deb_weights_and_anchors_to_daily_prediction(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        "src.analysis.deb_algorithm.load_history",
+        lambda _: {
+            "wuhan": {
+                "2026-05-20": {
+                    "actual_high": 31.0,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 31.0, "GFS": 35.0, "ICON": 28.0},
+                },
+                "2026-05-21": {
+                    "actual_high": 32.0,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 32.0, "GFS": 36.0, "ICON": 29.0},
+                },
+            }
+        },
+    )
+
+    path = build_deb_hourly_consensus_path(
+        city="wuhan",
+        hourly_times=[
+            "2026-05-28T09:00",
+            "2026-05-28T12:00",
+            "2026-05-28T15:00",
+            "2026-05-28T18:00",
+        ],
+        hourly_forecasts={
+            "ECMWF": [25.0, 29.0, 31.0, 27.0],
+            "GFS": [25.0, 31.0, 35.0, 29.0],
+            "ICON": [24.0, 27.0, 28.0, 26.0],
+        },
+        daily_forecasts={"ECMWF": 31.0, "GFS": 35.0, "ICON": 28.0},
+        deb_prediction=30.0,
+        local_date="2026-05-28",
+    )
+
+    assert path["version"] == DEB_HOURLY_CONSENSUS_VERSION
+    assert path["times"] == ["09:00", "12:00", "15:00", "18:00"]
+    assert max(path["temps"]) == 30.0
+    assert path["temps"].index(30.0) == 2
+    assert path["weights"]["ECMWF"] > path["weights"]["GFS"]
+    assert path["weights"]["ECMWF"] > path["weights"]["ICON"]
+    assert path["base_source"] == "multi_model_hourly_deb_weights"
+
+
+def test_deb_hourly_consensus_filters_to_city_local_date(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setattr("src.analysis.deb_algorithm.load_history", lambda _: {})
+
+    path = build_deb_hourly_consensus_path(
+        city="wuhan",
+        hourly_times=[
+            "2026-05-27T15:00",
+            "2026-05-28T09:00",
+            "2026-05-28T15:00",
+            "2026-05-29T09:00",
+        ],
+        hourly_forecasts={
+            "ECMWF": [40.0, 24.0, 30.0, 41.0],
+            "GFS": [40.0, 25.0, 31.0, 41.0],
+        },
+        daily_forecasts={"ECMWF": 30.0, "GFS": 31.0},
+        deb_prediction=30.0,
+        local_date="2026-05-28",
+    )
+
+    assert path["times"] == ["09:00", "15:00"]
+    assert path["temps"] == [24.0, 30.0]