diff --git a/frontend/components/dashboard/FutureForecastModal.tsx b/frontend/components/dashboard/FutureForecastModal.tsx
index 84e7cede..57cb8f6a 100644
--- a/frontend/components/dashboard/FutureForecastModal.tsx
+++ b/frontend/components/dashboard/FutureForecastModal.tsx
@@ -968,6 +968,11 @@ export function FutureForecastModal() {
     }
     const bucketLabel = formatBucketLabel(topProbabilityBucket);
     const bucketProb = formatMarketPercent(topProbabilityBucket.probability);
+    if (!isToday) {
+      return locale === "en-US"
+        ? `Target-day model probability reference puts the leading bucket at ${bucketLabel} (${bucketProb}). EMOS is reserved for intraday analysis after live anchor observations arrive.`
+        : `目标日模型概率参考显示领先温度桶为 ${bucketLabel}（${bucketProb}）。EMOS 仅用于有实时锚点观测后的日内分析。`;
+    }
     if (hasLgbmProbability) {
       return locale === "en-US"
         ? `LGBM-calibrated read puts the leading bucket at ${bucketLabel} (${bucketProb}). Treat this as the base case, not the final settlement.`
diff --git a/frontend/lib/i18n.ts b/frontend/lib/i18n.ts
index e0a46e82..5714c941 100644
--- a/frontend/lib/i18n.ts
+++ b/frontend/lib/i18n.ts
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ const MESSAGES: Record<Locale, Record<string, string>> = {
     "future.score": "趋势评分",
     "future.todayTempTrend": "今日温度走势",
     "future.targetTempTrend": "目标日小时走势",
-    "future.probability": "校准模型概率",
+    "future.probability": "模型概率参考",
     "future.models": "多模型预报",
     "future.structureToday": "今日日内结构信号",
     "future.structureDate": "未来 6-48 小时趋势",
@@ -253,7 +253,7 @@ const MESSAGES: Record<Locale, Record<string, string>> = {
     "future.score": "Trend Score",
     "future.todayTempTrend": "Today's Temperature Trend",
     "future.targetTempTrend": "Target-day Hourly Trend",
-    "future.probability": "Calibrated Model Probability",
+    "future.probability": "Model Probability Reference",
     "future.models": "Multi-model Forecast",
     "future.structureToday": "Intraday Structural Signal",
     "future.structureDate": "6-48h Structural Trend",