feat: Integrate multi-model and ensemble weather forecasts, update READMEs with new architecture and betting strategies, and resolve merge conflicts.

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2569718930@qq.com
2026-02-23 21:04:44 +08:00
parent b89b137e83
commit be90e610ee
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@@ -8,11 +8,7 @@ An intelligent weather bot for prediction markets and professional weather betti
- **Python 3.11+**
- Dependencies: `pip install -r requirements.txt`
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- **Environment**: Configure `METEOBLUE_API_KEY` in `.env` to enable high-precision London forecasts.
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- **Environment Variables**: Set `TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN` in `.env` (required). Optionally set `METEOBLUE_API_KEY` for London high-precision forecasts.
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### VPS Deployment (Recommended)
@@ -110,17 +106,7 @@ py -3.11 run.py
| **NWS** | Official (US) | US Only | US National Weather Service high-fidelity forecasts |
| **MGM** | Observations (Turkey) | Ankara Only | Turkish State Met Service: pressure, cloud cover, feels-like, 24h rainfall |
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| Source | Role | Coverage | Strength |
| :----------------- | :---------------------- | :-------------- | :--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Open-Meteo** | Base Forecast | Global | Provides detailed 72-hour temperature curves for all cities. |
| **Meteoblue (MB)** | **Precision Consensus** | London Only | **Traders' choice**. Aggregates multiple models; excellent for microclimates. |
| **METAR** | **Settlement Standard** | Global Airports | The absolute truth for Polymarket settlement; real-time station data. |
| **NWS** | Official (US) | US Only | High-fidelity forecasts for US cities, critical for extreme weather events. |
| **MGM** | Official (Turkey) | Ankara | Direct access to Turkish State Meteorological Service for local official accuracy. |
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> ⚠️ **All NWP model queries use airport coordinates** (matching METAR station), not city center. This eliminates systematic bias between forecast and settlement locations.
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**Open-Meteo API Architecture**: Three API calls go through the same platform, each serving a different purpose:
@@ -240,19 +226,12 @@ graph TD
Bot --> Collector[WeatherDataCollector]
subgraph "Data Engine"
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Collector --> OM[Open-Meteo API]
Collector --> MB[Meteoblue Weather API]
Collector --> NOAA[METAR Data Center]
Collector --> MGM[Turkish MGM API]
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Collector --> MM[Multi-Model API<br/>ECMWF/GFS/ICON/GEM/JMA]
Collector --> OM[Open-Meteo Forecast]
Collector --> ENS[Open-Meteo Ensemble]
Collector --> MB[Meteoblue API]
Collector --> NOAA[METAR / NOAA]
Collector --> MGM[MGM Observations]
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Collector --> NWS[US NWS API]
end
@@ -271,12 +250,6 @@ graph TD
## 🎯 Betting Strategy Tips
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1. **Check Consensus**: Compare Open-Meteo and Meteoblue (MB). Consensus usually implies higher probability.
2. **Watch the Peak**: Use `/city` frequently during predicted peak windows to catch momentum.
3. **Weighting Hierarchy**: Settlement is **METAR**; high-accuracy trend is **MB** (London); Official (NWS/MGM) is the "anchor."
4. **Geographic Risk**: Pay close attention to cities where "Bias will significantly amplify."
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1. **Check Model Consensus**: The 🎯/⚖️/⚠️ rating tells you immediately if the forecast is reliable.
2. **Use the Entry Signal**: Wait for ⏰ **Ideal** or **Good** timing before placing bets. Don't bet early when uncertainty is high.
3. **Watch Ensemble Spread**: A tight 90% band (< 2°) means model confidence is high — this is where edges live.
@@ -289,4 +262,3 @@ graph TD
---
_Last updated: 2026-02-22_
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