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fix: use multi-model peak window for gaussian probability

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This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-05-28 10:03:29 +08:00
parent fb4a9d7e09
commit be549daf50
4 changed files with 148 additions and 18 deletions
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tests/test_deployment_runtime_config.py
+7
View File
@@ -53,3 +53,10 @@ def test_probability_engine_uses_enriched_multi_model_snapshot():
source = (ROOT / "web" / "analysis_service.py").read_text(encoding="utf-8")
assert 'raw["multi_model"] = mm' in source
def test_city_detail_peak_window_uses_shared_multi_model_resolver():
source = (ROOT / "web" / "analysis_service.py").read_text(encoding="utf-8")
assert "from src.analysis.trend_engine import _resolve_peak_hours" in source
assert "peak_hours = _resolve_peak_hours(" in source
tests/test_trend_engine.py
+46 -3
View File
@@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ def _make_weather_data(
local_time="2026-03-04 14:30",
recent_temps=None,
multi_model=None,
multi_model_hourly=None,
recent_obs=None,
):
"""Build a minimal weather_data dict for testing."""
@@ -60,7 +61,7 @@ def _make_weather_data(
"p10": ens_p10,
"p90": ens_p90,
},
"multi_model": {"forecasts": multi_model or {}},
"multi_model": {"forecasts": multi_model or {}, **(multi_model_hourly or {})},
"nws": {},
}
return data
@@ -153,16 +154,58 @@ class TestMuCalculation:
recent_temps=[("09:00", 25.0), ("08:00", 24.0), ("07:00", 23.0)],
multi_model={},
)
data["open-meteo"]["utc_offset"] = 8 * 60 * 60
data["open-meteo"]["daily"]["time"] = ["2026-05-27", "2026-05-28"]
data["open-meteo"]["daily"]["temperature_2m_max"] = [24.0, 31.0]
data["open-meteo"]["hourly"]["time"] = [f"2026-05-28T{h:02d}:00" for h in range(24)]
_, _, sd = analyze_weather_trend(data, "°C", "wuhan")
_, _, sd = analyze_weather_trend(data, "°C", "test_city")
assert sd["current_forecasts"]["Open-Meteo"] == 31.0
assert sd["mu"] is not None and sd["mu"] >= 30.0
@patch("src.analysis.trend_engine.calculate_dynamic_weights", return_value=(None, ""))
@patch("src.analysis.trend_engine.get_deb_accuracy", return_value=None)
@patch("src.analysis.trend_engine.update_daily_record")
def test_multi_model_peak_window_prevents_early_open_meteo_bust(
self, _udr, _deb_acc, _dw
):
"""If Open-Meteo peaks early but multi-models peak later, μ must not anchor to morning actuals."""
hourly_times = [f"2026-03-04T{h:02d}:00" for h in range(24)]
data = _make_weather_data(
cur_temp=25.0,
max_so_far=25.0,
om_today_high=31.5,
ens_median=None,
ens_p10=None,
ens_p90=None,
local_time="2026-03-04 09:50",
recent_temps=[("09:00", 25.0), ("08:00", 24.5), ("07:00", 24.0)],
multi_model={
"ECMWF": 30.8,
"GFS": 32.0,
"ICON": 28.8,
"GEM": 29.8,
},
multi_model_hourly={
"hourly_times": hourly_times,
"hourly_forecasts": {
"ECMWF": [24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 30.5, 30.8, 30.8, 30.4, 29, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 24],
"GFS": [24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 25, 26, 27, 29, 30, 31, 31.5, 32.0, 32.0, 31.2, 30, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 24],
"ICON": [23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 28.5, 28.8, 28.8, 28.8, 28.4, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, 23],
"GEM": [24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 29.5, 29.8, 29.8, 29.8, 29.4, 29, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 24],
},
},
)
data["open-meteo"]["hourly"]["time"] = hourly_times
data["open-meteo"]["hourly"]["temperature_2m"] = [
23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 24, 25, 27, 30, 31.5, 29, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 24, 23, 23, 22, 22, 22, 22, 22
]
_, _, sd = analyze_weather_trend(data, "°C", "test_city")
assert sd["peak_status"] == "before"
assert sd["mu"] is not None and sd["mu"] >= 29.0
# ─── Tests: Dead Market ───