Show market buckets with model probability
This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ const SUMMARY_TEXT = {
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region: { en: "Region", zh: "区域" },
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localTime: { en: "Local Time", zh: "当地时间" },
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gaussianMu: { en: "Gaussian μ", zh: "高斯 μ" },
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probabilityDistribution: { en: "Probability Distribution", zh: "概率分布" },
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marketMatch: { en: "Market Match", zh: "市场匹配" },
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median: { en: "Median", zh: "模型中位数" },
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spread: { en: "Spread", zh: "分歧范围" },
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empty: { en: "No model summary rows match the current filters.", zh: "当前筛选下没有模型汇总数据。" },
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@@ -100,9 +100,11 @@ function FilterToggle({
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function ModelSummaryRowView({
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row,
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nowMs,
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isEn,
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}: {
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row: ModelSummaryRow;
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nowMs: number | null;
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isEn: boolean;
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}) {
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return (
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<tr className="group border-b border-slate-100 hover:bg-blue-50/40">
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@@ -136,24 +138,26 @@ function ModelSummaryRowView({
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<TemperatureCell value={row.gaussianMu} symbol={row.tempSymbol} emphasis="median" />
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</td>
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<td className="min-w-[420px] max-w-[520px] px-3 py-1.5 text-left">
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{row.probabilityBuckets.length ? (
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{row.marketMatches.length ? (
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<div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1">
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{row.probabilityBuckets.map((bucket) => {
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const isTopBucket = bucket.key === row.topProbabilityBucketKey;
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{row.marketMatches.map((match) => {
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return (
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<span
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key={bucket.key}
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<a
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key={match.key}
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href={match.marketUrl || undefined}
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target={match.marketUrl ? "_blank" : undefined}
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rel={match.marketUrl ? "noreferrer" : undefined}
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className={clsx(
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"inline-flex items-center gap-1 rounded border px-1.5 py-0.5 font-mono text-[10px] tabular-nums",
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isTopBucket
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? "border-violet-200 bg-violet-50 font-black text-violet-800"
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: "border-slate-200 bg-slate-50 font-bold text-violet-700",
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"inline-flex items-center gap-1 rounded border px-1.5 py-0.5 font-mono text-[10px] font-bold tabular-nums",
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(match.modelProbability ?? 0) >= 0.2
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? "border-emerald-200 bg-emerald-50 text-emerald-800"
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: "border-slate-200 bg-slate-50 text-slate-600",
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)}
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title={bucket.label}
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title={`${match.label} model ${formatModelSummaryProbability(match.modelProbability)}`}
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>
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<span>{bucket.label}</span>
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<strong>{formatModelSummaryProbability(bucket.probability)}</strong>
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</span>
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<span className="font-black">{match.label}</span>
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<span>{isEn ? "M" : "模"} {formatModelSummaryProbability(match.modelProbability)}</span>
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</a>
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);
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})}
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</div>
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@@ -315,8 +319,8 @@ export function ModelSummaryDashboard({
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<th className="min-w-[92px] px-3 py-2 text-right text-violet-700">
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{copy("gaussianMu", isEn)}
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</th>
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<th className="min-w-[420px] max-w-[520px] px-3 py-2 text-left text-violet-700">
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{copy("probabilityDistribution", isEn)}
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<th className="min-w-[420px] max-w-[520px] px-3 py-2 text-left text-emerald-700">
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{copy("marketMatch", isEn)}
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</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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@@ -326,6 +330,7 @@ export function ModelSummaryDashboard({
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key={row.cityKey}
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row={row}
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nowMs={nowMs}
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isEn={isEn}
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/>
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))}
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</tbody>
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+30
-4
@@ -59,6 +59,16 @@ export function runTests() {
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{ value: 33, model_probability: 0.31, range: "[32.5~33.5)" },
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],
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probability_engine: "legacy",
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all_buckets: [
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{
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label: "31.5-32.5°C",
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model_probability: 0.42,
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},
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{
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label: "33.5-34.5°C",
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model_probability: 0.08,
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},
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],
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},
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{
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city: "madrid",
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@@ -131,6 +141,18 @@ export function runTests() {
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parisRow.topProbabilityBucketKey === "31.5-32.5°C",
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"model summary should map probability buckets and identify the top bucket",
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);
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assert(parisRow.marketMatches.length === 2, "model summary should keep every Polymarket tradable bucket");
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assert(
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parisRow.marketMatches[0].label === "31.5-32.5°C" &&
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parisRow.marketMatches[0].modelProbability === 0.42 &&
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parisRow.marketMatches[0].marketUrl === null,
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"model summary should expose model probability for market-matched buckets without requiring market price",
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);
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assert(
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parisRow.marketMatches[1].label === "33.5-34.5°C" &&
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parisRow.marketMatches[1].modelProbability === 0.08,
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"model summary should keep low-probability tradable buckets for manual NO review",
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);
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assert(formatModelSummaryProbability(null) === "—", "missing probability should render as an em dash");
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assert(formatModelSummaryProbability(0.424) === "42%", "probability buckets should render as rounded percentages");
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assert(formatModelSummaryTemp(null, "°C") === "—", "missing model temperatures should render as an em dash");
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@@ -199,10 +221,14 @@ export function runTests() {
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modelSummarySource.includes("hasModelSummaryForecastData") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("Gaussian μ") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("高斯 μ") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("Probability Distribution") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("概率分布") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("topProbabilityBucketKey") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("probabilityBuckets.map") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("Market Match") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("市场匹配") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("marketMatches.map") &&
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!modelSummarySource.includes("formatModelSummaryEdge") &&
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!modelSummarySource.includes("marketProbability") &&
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!modelSummarySource.includes("edgePercent") &&
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!modelSummarySource.includes("Probability Distribution") &&
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!modelSummarySource.includes("概率分布") &&
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!modelSummarySource.includes("probabilityColumns") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("min-w-[96px]") &&
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modelSummarySource.includes("Local Time") &&
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